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Thread: Official Offseason Thread

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jay212033 View Post
    I really hope AA is talking with Ryu people to be that back end starter to replace Teheran.
    Not that it changes anything but Ryu is not a back end starter.

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    Quote Originally Posted by GovClintonTyree View Post
    Not sure why you guys are talking about starters when it’s clear that they have spent the money on the bullpen- 250 innings with far better FIP and xFIP than any available starter you’d care to name.

    Fourth starter is Newcomb and the fifth comes from Gwinnett.
    that's how I see it playing out...we might even see some musical chairs when it comes to the fifth starter
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    I have the Braves as spending $44.4M on the opening day BP in 2020. That's...alarming.

    This is a little like when the Rockies splurged on Davis, Shaw and McGee when they gave those 3 guys a combined $35M per year for 2018-2020. The Rockies got a decent 3.4 fWAR from the BP in 2018, and a horrid 0.2 fWAR in 2019...because BPs are volatile. They probably won't be able to build a competitive roster in 2020 because of the dead weight salaries in the BP.

    All that cash better buy a 5+ fWAR unit over the next 2-3 years, or the Braves are in serious trouble.
    Last edited by Enscheff; 11-20-2019 at 12:56 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    I have the Braves as spending $44.4M on the opening day BP in 2020. That's...alarming.

    This is a little like when the Rockies splurged on Davis, Shaw and McGee when they gave those 3 guys a combined $35M per year for 2018-2020. The Rockies got a decent 3.4 fWAR from the BP in 2018, and a horrid 0.2 fWAR in 2019...because BPs are volatile. They probably won't be able to build a competitive roster in 2020 because of the dead weight salaries in the BP.

    All that cash better buy a 5+ fWAR unit over the next 2-3 years, or the Braves are in serious trouble.
    But Melancon and Greene they are free agents after next year and O’Day is a club option for the second year.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    I have the Braves as spending $44.4M on the opening day BP in 2020. That's...alarming.

    This is a little like when the Rockies splurged on Davis, Shaw and McGee when they gave those 3 guys a combined $35M per year for 2018-2020. The Rockies got a decent 3.4 fWAR from the BP in 2018, and a horrid 0.2 fWAR in 2019...because BPs are volatile. They probably won't be able to build a competitive roster in 2020 because of the dead weight salaries in the BP.

    All that cash better buy a 5+ fWAR unit over the next 2-3 years, or the Braves are in serious trouble.
    The only thing I could tell you to make you feel better is, both Melancon and Greene are off the books after this year, and that's close to 20 million freed up.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    I have the Braves as spending $44.4M on the opening day BP in 2020. That's...alarming.

    This is a little like when the Rockies splurged on Davis, Shaw and McGee when they gave those 3 guys a combined $35M per year for 2018-2020. The Rockies got a decent 3.4 fWAR from the BP in 2018, and a horrid 0.2 fWAR in 2019...because BPs are volatile. They probably won't be able to build a competitive roster in 2020 because of the dead weight salaries in the BP.

    All that cash better buy a 5+ fWAR unit over the next 2-3 years, or the Braves are in serious trouble.
    MM will be gone after this season so that’ll free up 14 million.

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    Quote Originally Posted by clvclv View Post
    Younger than Keuchel and strikes out tons more hitters - one of the reasons they've given for not wanting to bring Keuchel back. Walks less than half the number of guys and hasn't been relying on luck (that's bound to run out soon) for the last two years like Julio does - one of the reasons they've given for passing on Julio's option.

    Pick whatever description you like - if you were choosing someone from those three to give a 3 or 4 year deal to, are you really arguing that the others could possibly be a better choice?

    More than welcome to your preference of Keuchel, but my guess is that you're in a pretty small minority of people that share that opinion. With Soroka and Fried having gained the experience they have, I could argue that they should go Soroka/Fried/Folty in the first three games of a playoff series. If AA trades for or signs another SP (or Wright/Wilson/Anderson take steps forward this year) you could legitimately wonder whether Keuchel would be a fit on a postseason roster - just like Julio the last two years. Don't think you could make that argument against Bumgarner.
    Neither DK nor JT are likely to secure 3/4 year deals, so that's rather irrelevant. If prices were the same and draft pick weren't a consideration, sure MadBum has more potential than either one, so he wouldn't be a bad choicr. But he was wasn't significantly better than either DK or JT in the 2nd half of last season (as if that sample size had any relevance).

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    Quote Originally Posted by Hudson2 View Post
    MM will be gone after this season so that’ll free up 14 million.
    18 million!

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    This article sums it up pretty well...the Braves have an expensive good old BP:

    https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/...g-bullpen.html

    "it must be a bit disappointing for the Braves that they’ve ended up needing to commit this kind of cash to get where they feel comfortable in the relief unit. The waves of young arms have thus far largely disappointed outside of a few notable exceptions. The idea had been that the club’s best starting pitching prospects would not only form up an imposing rotation but spill over into the bullpen, linking up with the team’s short-inning pitching prospects to create an overwhelming overall staff."

    All those resources piled into arms the last 5 years, and they still have to spend $44M to build a good BP.

    Guess they should have acquired even more arms?

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    Maybe an issue of less than competent pitching coaches? Im not sure but hasn't there been considerable turnover in the minor league staffs under LM ownership?

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    To be fair, the only ones recently they haven't developed into useful pieces have been Touki, Wright, and Wilson. Touki and Wilson are still super young, and they are still committed to them as staters, so not too concerned about their 2019 struggles in the pen. Wright has largely disappointed, but still has time to develop.
    Newk has had mild success as both a starter and reliever. Fried, Folty, and Soroka are rotation main stays.

    Main failures were Sims, Wisler, and Blair. Sims and Wisler were used in a trade for Duvall, so they weren't completely useless. Blair was a legit bust, but he was the 3rd piece of the Miller trade, so it isn't like we had much invested into him.
    Last edited by Carp; 11-20-2019 at 02:29 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by clvclv View Post
    Younger than Keuchel and strikes out tons more hitters - one of the reasons they've given for not wanting to bring Keuchel back. Walks less than half the number of guys and hasn't been relying on luck (that's bound to run out soon) for the last two years like Julio does - one of the reasons they've given for passing on Julio's option.

    Pick whatever description you like - if you were choosing someone from those three to give a 3 or 4 year deal to, are you really arguing that the others could possibly be a better choice?

    More than welcome to your preference of Keuchel, but my guess is that you're in a pretty small minority of people that share that opinion. With Soroka and Fried having gained the experience they have, I could argue that they should go Soroka/Fried/Folty in the first three games of a playoff series. If AA trades for or signs another SP (or Wright/Wilson/Anderson take steps forward this year) you could legitimately wonder whether Keuchel would be a fit on a postseason roster - just like Julio the last two years. Don't think you could make that argument against Bumgarner.
    MadBum strikes out tons more batters then Keuchel?

    MadBum 8.8 K/9
    Keuchel 7.3 K/9

    I didn’t realize striking out a little over one batter more per 9 innings equates to a ton more

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    Is it my imagination but seems Ive read that Wright is not the most coachable young man.

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    Quote Originally Posted by PawPawMaxwell View Post
    Is it my imagination but seems Ive read that Wright is not the most coachable young man.
    I don’t think I’ve seen that anywhere

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    Quote Originally Posted by zbhargrove View Post
    I don’t think I’ve seen that anywhere
    He went to Vandy. That's inculpatory evidence I believe.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Carp View Post
    To be fair, the only ones recently they haven't developed into useful pieces have been Touki, Wright, and Wilson. Touki and Wilson are still super young, and they are still committed to them as staters, so not too concerned about their 2019 struggles in the pen. Wright has largely disappointed, but still has time to develop.
    Newk has had mild success as both a starter and reliever. Fried, Folty, and Soroka are rotation main stays.

    Main failures were Sims, Wisler, and Blair. Sims and Wisler were used in a trade for Duvall, so they weren't completely useless. Blair was a legit bust, but he was the 3rd piece of the Miller trade, so it isn't like we had much invested into him.

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    Maybe AA has begun using a different valuation system that puts more emphasis on bullpen pitching than the WAR calculations do.

    Intuitively it seems possible to me that an elite bullpen would have prevented quite a few of the Braves losses last year, especially in the first half. I admit that may be hooey because I haven't gone back over game logs.

    Multiple quality relief options seem like they could also have some type of cooperative bonus also, meaning 4 pitchers worth 1 WAR each are worth greater than 1 more WAR than only 3 of those pitchers, due to factors like fatigue, off days, and the opportunity to end a starter's poor performance early.

    If that makes sense.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jaw View Post
    Maybe AA has begun using a different valuation system that puts more emphasis on bullpen pitching than the WAR calculations do.

    Intuitively it seems possible to me that an elite bullpen would have prevented quite a few of the Braves losses last year, especially in the first half. I admit that may be hooey because I haven't gone back over game logs.

    Multiple quality relief options seem like they could also have some type of cooperative bonus also, meaning 4 pitchers worth 1 WAR each are worth greater than 1 more WAR than only 3 of those pitchers, due to factors like fatigue, off days, and the opportunity to end a starter's poor performance early.

    If that makes sense.
    even if you go by WAR our pen last year generated 1 fWAR, whereas the top 5 pens generated 6-8 fWAR. That suggests that the pen improvement could be worth about 5 wins next year.
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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    even if you go by WAR our pen last year generated 1 fWAR, whereas the top 5 pens generated 6-8 fWAR. That suggests that the pen improvement could be worth about 5 wins next year.
    Depthcharts on Fangraphs has the Braves pen at 4.3 WAR in 2020. Smith and Martin are projected to be worth 1.8 of that.

    Edit: And to further add to this. Obviously trades and the signing of the premo FA's will shuffle the order but the Braves, as is, are expected to produce 38.6 WAR which is 7th in baseball and 2nd in the NL to the Dodgers.
    Last edited by thewupk; 11-20-2019 at 04:00 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Carp View Post
    To be fair, the only ones recently they haven't developed into useful pieces have been Touki, Wright, and Wilson. Touki and Wilson are still super young, and they are still committed to them as staters, so not too concerned about their 2019 struggles in the pen. Wright has largely disappointed, but still has time to develop.
    Newk has had mild success as both a starter and reliever. Fried, Folty, and Soroka are rotation main stays.

    Main failures were Sims, Wisler, and Blair. Sims and Wisler were used in a trade for Duvall, so they weren't completely useless. Blair was a legit bust, but he was the 3rd piece of the Miller trade, so it isn't like we had much invested into him.
    There were a lot more pitching prospects the last 5 years than these...Allard, Gohara, Gant, Jenkins, ManBan, etc, etc...

    I'm sure the next reply will be something along the lines of, "wellllll...those other guys weren't REALLY good prospects".

    Then why acquire them rather than position prospects? Why did folks on this board list them out time and time again while drooling over how awesome they were? Am I the only one who remembers the countless posts where folks filled out the entire pitching staff of the future with internal guys, and then marveled at how great that staff would be? After all that drooling, folks are seriously going to suggest, "they weren't REALLY that good"?

    If the Braves still had to spend $44M on the 2020 BP, what was the point in accumulating all those arms? Who failed? Why aren't they going to fail again?
    Last edited by Enscheff; 11-20-2019 at 04:09 PM.

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