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Thread: Official Offseason Thread

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    Bottom line:

    “The investors were told the Braves have averaged annual increases of 21% in total revenue”

    I would expect payroll to increase by roughly the same amount.
    Based on 21% increase from $130m would be just over $157m...that’d be amazing
    Get off my lawn!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    Bottom line:

    “The investors were told the Braves have averaged annual increases of 21% in total revenue”

    I would expect payroll to increase by roughly the same amount.
    So ~$28M? If 2019's payroll was $144, that'd equate to a $170ish 2020 payroll. That seems pretty significant.

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    Unfortunately the increased revenues came with even greater increased debt. Percentage wise. I don’t see liberty increasing payroll equal to revenue but adjusted profit maybe. I don’t know what that is.
    Coppy

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    Quote Originally Posted by bravesfanforlife88 View Post
    Based on 21% increase from $130m would be just over $157m...that’d be amazing
    That's not how I read the quote...

    "The investors were told the Braves have averaged annual increases of 21% in total revenue, 9% in paid attendance, 22% in gate receipts, 25% in sponsorship revenue and 44% in TV ratings since the move."

    I take that as a 21% increase in revenue since over 2016 revenues, when the payroll was well under $100M.

    I'm going to guess this statement doesn't reveal anything we don't already know: payroll has been going up slowly the last few years.

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    With payroll currently at 107 million, that would potentially mean 50 million still left to spend if it was a 21% increase. That would allow us to be in play with any FA in the tiers behind Stras, Cole, and Rendon. Possibly even multiple FAs among that 2nd tier

    But man, I wish we'd just bite the bullet and sign Rendon with that money. He fits this team so well. Would even have enough left to nab a pitcher like Hamels if we wanted to.

    And while the early moves are encouraging, I'll believe a significant payroll increase when I see it. Still expecting an opening day payroll in the 130-140 million range.
    Last edited by Carp; 11-21-2019 at 04:08 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    That's not how I read the quote...

    "The investors were told the Braves have averaged annual increases of 21% in total revenue, 9% in paid attendance, 22% in gate receipts, 25% in sponsorship revenue and 44% in TV ratings since the move."

    I take that as a 21% increase in revenue since over 2016 revenues, when the payroll was well under $100M.

    I'm going to guess this statement doesn't reveal anything we don't already know: payroll has been going up slowly the last few years.
    Doesn't that say "annual revenue increases of 21%"? So not 21% increase since the move, but 21% yoy since the move.

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    I take his statement to mean the average annual revenue has increased 21% in total, not that it has increased 21% annually.

    Braves end of year payrolls since 2016 (the season before SunTrust) have been (roughly):

    https://legacy.baseballprospectus.co...anta-braves-2/

    2019 $144,000,000 (from memory that I read somewhere)
    2018 $136,024,060 (19th in MLB)
    2017 $133,400,668 (20th in MLB)
    2016 $128,348,481 (17th in MLB)

    An increase of ~21% over $128M is $154M, and exactly in line with what we expect the 2020 year end payroll to be. Keeping $10M-$15M in reserve sets the opening day payroll around $140M...which is still awesome and give them almost $40M left to spend (I have the current payroll at ~$102M).

    He could have meant 21% per year, in which case they haven't been pumping nearly that much back into the roster.
    Last edited by Enscheff; 11-21-2019 at 04:13 PM.

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    I didn’t read the article. But the other AJC article about revenue also talked about debt going up 100 plus million or what ever that number was. That is from the new spring facility and phase two of the battery. Now I am not sure if that was total debt or annual debt.
    Coppy

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    I take his statement to mean the average annual revenue has increased 21% in total, not that it has increased 21% annually.

    Braves end of year payrolls since 2016 (the season before SunTrust) have been (roughly):

    https://legacy.baseballprospectus.co...anta-braves-2/

    2019 $144,000,000 (from memory that I read somewhere)
    2018 $136,024,060 (19th in MLB)
    2017 $133,400,668 (20th in MLB)
    2016 $128,348,481 (17th in MLB)

    An increase of ~21% over $128M is $154M, and exactly in line with what we expect the 2020 year end payroll to be. Keeping $10M-$15M in reserve sets the opening day payroll around $140M...which is still awesome and give them almost $40M left to spend (I have the current payroll at ~$102M).

    He could have meant 21% per year, in which case they haven't been pumping nearly that much back into the roster.
    I think the answer is in his wording. "Averaged annual increases", to me this means that on average revenue increased each year by that amount.

    Well, revenue doesn't mean profit and we knew they were dumping a ton of money back into the battery that they were waiting to recoop before dumping a lot back into the roster... right?

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    Quote Originally Posted by bravesfanforlife88 View Post
    Based on 21% increase from $130m would be just over $157m...that’d be amazing
    I'm not speculating, but if indeed our payroll is increasing to $157-170m... could we possibly be in the market for Rendon or Cole? I'm legitimately asking. I doubt it certainly, but that number would change things significantly.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    Waters plus something else would probably be about right. Still trading for an expensive position player seems like an odd decision.
    Including Fried would be dumb but AA knows that. Waters and Wilson would be fair. Yes Bryant is expensive but at his production, ~$20 million a year is a pretty good deal. Dude is an MVP candidate when he's healthy. I don't see how trading for that would be an odd decision if the deal is fair.
    Last edited by zbhargrove; 11-21-2019 at 05:34 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    I take his statement to mean the average annual revenue has increased 21% in total, not that it has increased 21% annually.

    Braves end of year payrolls since 2016 (the season before SunTrust) have been (roughly):

    https://legacy.baseballprospectus.co...anta-braves-2/

    2019 $144,000,000 (from memory that I read somewhere)
    2018 $136,024,060 (19th in MLB)
    2017 $133,400,668 (20th in MLB)
    2016 $128,348,481 (17th in MLB)

    An increase of ~21% over $128M is $154M, and exactly in line with what we expect the 2020 year end payroll to be. Keeping $10M-$15M in reserve sets the opening day payroll around $140M...which is still awesome and give them almost $40M left to spend (I have the current payroll at ~$102M).

    He could have meant 21% per year, in which case they haven't been pumping nearly that much back into the roster.
    This makes more sense to me

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    They will likely sign Madbum, trade for a good catcher or third baseman ....fill in the gaps with good players on the cheap.

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    Quote Originally Posted by TheBravos View Post
    They will likely sign Madbum, trade for a good catcher or third baseman ....fill in the gaps with good players on the cheap.
    I think we should sign Todd Frazier and let Austin Riley a few month at AAA.
    Last edited by ixiXSolidXixi; 11-21-2019 at 09:26 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by The Chosen One View Post
    Grandal got his money. Glad we didn't match 4 years for catcher.
    4/$73 million for Grandal just might be better than 4/$100 million for Donaldson.

    Just sayin'.
    Has there EVER been a statement and question a certain someone should absolutely never have made and asked publicly more than...

    Kinda pathetic to see yourself as a message board knight in shining armor. How impotent does someone have to be in real life to resort to playing hero on a message board?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    That's not how I read the quote...

    "The investors were told the Braves have averaged annual increases of 21% in total revenue, 9% in paid attendance, 22% in gate receipts, 25% in sponsorship revenue and 44% in TV ratings since the move."

    I take that as a 21% increase in revenue since over 2016 revenues, when the payroll was well under $100M.

    I'm going to guess this statement doesn't reveal anything we don't already know: payroll has been going up slowly the last few years.
    Might be CAGR

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    Quote Originally Posted by TheBravos View Post
    They will likely sign Madbum, trade for a good catcher or third baseman ....fill in the gaps with good players on the cheap.
    Jesus how many smart, statistically based arguments have to be made against a MadBum signing before people stop advocating/predicting that. I'll say this, if AA signs Madison for anything more than an exceptional bargain (perceptually, anyway), I will officially lose faith in him as our GM. The Will Smith signing, fine. Martin? Fine. Madbum for the amounts that he's being projected at would be beyond insane for us.

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    Quote Originally Posted by clvclv View Post
    4/$73 million for Grandal just might be better than 4/$100 million for Donaldson.

    Just sayin'.
    I would take Grandal for four years any day of the week if it could have gotten the deal done. His framing should buoy his value enough that any major regression risk will be mitigated to some degree.

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    Quote Originally Posted by BeanieAntics View Post
    Jesus how many smart, statistically based arguments have to be made against a MadBum signing before people stop advocating/predicting that. I'll say this, if AA signs Madison for anything more than an exceptional bargain (perceptually, anyway), I will officially lose faith in him as our GM. The Will Smith signing, fine. Martin? Fine. Madbum for the amounts that he's being projected at would be beyond insane for us.
    If you just accept that it's happening now itll make the shock much easier to deal with when it happens.
    Natural Immunity Croc

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    AA acquire Josh Donaldson from the A’s. Matt Chapman looks like Donaldson but younger. What we need to give to trade for him?

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