Is it the same analysis that claims Sims is a top prospect again?Originally Posted by thethe
Is it the same analysis that claims Sims is a top prospect again?
Beck or Gore.
they drafted him. they said they thought he was the best high school arm. that's also consistent with the pre-draft reporting that says the Braves were all over scouting him and liked him a lot.
they pretty much could have signed any other pitcher or hitter under slot as well, though perhaps not as far under slot.
a general sense that no one thought any of the players in the draft were sure things and that the Braves certainly had the opportunity to draft anyone they thought was a sure thing left on the board.
Has anyone made that claim Sims is that?
I think the early results and reports of Anderson provide some evidence that the Braves correctly chose Anderson not only based on perceived signabilty but sheer upside.
Knowing what we know now would you not have picked Anderson?
Wow. Just, wow.
Knowing what we know now, does it really matter when he was selected or if he was BPA or not or what he cost?
Because the current situation, he damn sure might have been the best pitcher drafted to this point. And that's really all that matters right?
Ivermectin Man
Hudson2 (05-11-2017)
Moving forward, it matters that the Braves take BPA.
This concept of separating the process from the results is lost on most people. Further, declaring Anderson a success at this point in time is silly.
Separating process\results isn't lost on me what so ever. But RESULTS are actually the more important part of that equation. Especially when there is no consensus from teams on who is\isn't the BPA and how they develop going forward at 18 years old.
He is a success to the same point others drafted with him are\aren't. No one is declaring him major league Ace. Just at this point, with this info to date, he has been as successful at the same levels as his peers if not more so. And in the end, that's all we have\what matters to this point, yes?
Ivermectin Man
So among the players speculated to be under consideration by the Braves this year, are there any that would NOT be considered a high upside pick at #5? Of course everyone at that level is high upside. I mean in a relative sense within that peer group.
Not that I can see.
Ivermectin Man
As an aside I keep finding myself in the odd position of reminding everyone that the guy our FO really wanted last year was Nick Senzel. What does that say?
It is an odd position for me because I suspect I am one of the few around here who thought Senzel was high upside. But one of those rare high upside guys who also has a high floor.
True. What do his minor league numbers to date suggest he is? I haven't followed.
Ivermectin Man
Last year gave a peak at his high ceiling.. this year he is showing more of his high floor. Promoted to A+ and he is starting to hit now. struggled to start. we will see.
Good hitter, not a ton of power. Basically what his pre-draft profile suggested.
Not of the guys who have been linked to the Braves, mostly Gore and Beck. They're definitely both high-upside. Adell is as well. The only other real options (unless somebody comes from out of nowhere, but I think the top of this draft is good enough to keep that from happening) are guys like Lewis, Wright, and Bukauskas and maybe (though it would be shocking) Pavin Smith. Of those, only Smith is a guy I would say is more of a high floor, and perhaps Bukauskas.
Note to belabor a tired point, but isn't this a case of circular logic?
BPA, which I think we all can agree with is a grand draft philosophy, implies that there is indeed a consensus BPA. Bridges has said from the beginning he thought Anderson was BPA at that pick. We can cite differing opinions (and our own) that he's wrong or lying, but I can't see how his opinion can be proven false by anything other than results.
So if that's the case, then yeah, I think its okay for us draft-derps to rest our laurels on the results side of things.
All right lets try to parse this a little. Would anyone care to rank the guys listed as likely to go in the Top 10 by upside. Since the idea is not merely to go for high upside but highest upside.
Sure, I'll do Top 5 prep guys. Based on pure upside, they all are higher than all the college players:
1. Greene
2. Adell
3. Gore
4. Beck
5. Lewis
Then in order of most risky:
1. Adell
2. Gore
3. Beck
4. Greene
5. Lewis
Greene is a TOR guy, but all HS pitchers are inherently risky, which is why a RHed prep pitcher has never gone #1 overall.
Adell is the highest upside hitter, but also the highest risk hitter.
Gore has solid MOR potential, but again, HS arms are very risky.
Beck has the profile of a middle of the order corner OFer, but his lack of ABs vs elite competition makes him a bit of a risk.
Lewis has the lowest upside, but his defensive profile also makes him the least risky.
I agree that the top 5 HS guys have the most upside, but I honestly think they're all pretty even in terms of pure upside. I would disagree that Greene has the highest upside of the group, though. He certainly has big upside, but I think it's his relative lack of risk that is putting him at #1. So I would say he is the least risky of the 5 but would probably put Adell and Beck at the top in terms of upside if I had to choose.
I think Lewis is about the riskiest of the bunch, save for maybe Adell.
for the very very top guys I would not discount the upside of the collage guys...im starting to warm to the idea of taking McKay as a hitter
..probably will be gone before we pick...but if he's there I hope we'll consider it
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