I'd love to have him at 3bOriginally Posted by emk418
I'd love to have him at 3b
It's a bit of a gamble for us. Say we sign him to a 1 year contract and he doesn't rebound, then it's a waste. The risk would be that that he rebounds, and we offer a qualifying offer to which he rejects. Essentially we'd be buying a draft pick through this type of deal. The problem is, he's already 30.
People say that Teheran isn’t an ace, which got me to thinking, “What exactly is an ‘ace?’” I picked out Tom Glavine from the group of that “Big 3” group from the 90’s to see if everyone on here thought that he was an ace. Yes, I know I’m comparing Teheran to a 300 game winner and a Hall of Famer, but bear with me for a moment.
When you look at Glavine’s stat line entering his age 25 season (his 1991 NL CY Young Award Season), here is what you had:
ERA CG SHO IP H R ER HR BB SO BF ERA+ FIP WHIP H9 HR9 BB9 SO9
4.29 8 4 646.0 660 344 308 55 214 323 2777 89 3.95 1.353 9.2 0.8 3.0 4.5
Certainly he wasn’t ace worthy with those numbers, correct? Now let’s look at Julio’s numbers entering his age 25 season (2016):
ERA CG SHO IP H R ER HR BB SO BF ERA+ FIP WHIP H9 HR9 BB9 SO9
3.44 4 2 633.1 576 265 242 75 178 542 2612 108 3.90 1.191 8.2 1.1 2.5 7.7
Teheran looks to be better than Glavine in just about every category other than HR/9. I’ve said that Julio needs to work on his HR ratio though and, if he gets that under control I do think that he will develop as an ace. That doesn’t explain his poor 2015 season, as his HR rate was just slightly higher than it was over the past two seasons.
Again, I’m not trying to call Teheran the next Glavine, because that would be unfair and it would make me look like an idiot. I’m merely trying to point out that Julio is a 25-year-old in MLB and I don’t think it’s fair to say that Syndergaard or Urias are better than he is. He had a bad 2015 that showed a drop in velocity (was that ever explained, by the way?), which I still think was injury related. If we are going to bank on potential with other guys, I think we should do it with Julio as well. I understand that 2016 was bad for him and got him on several people’s crap list, but he was just 24. I think Julio still holds value to several teams especially with that contract. Most pitchers don’t hit their prime until their mid-20’s anyway and you need no further pitchers to look at other than “The Big 3” from the 90’s. If teams aren’t offering me a lot for Teheran, I hang up the phone and let him develop around my young group that I already have.
I think the main flaw in your argument is the game has changed so much in those past 25 years. Players are coming in and becoming all star caliber talents are much younger ages.
Yeah, and I thought about that as well and meant to include it in the post. Glavine was pitching in the steroid ERA, which inflates his numbers a bit, but ERA+ should be adjusted to that, if I understand the statistic correctly. It's just another angle to look at, that I didn't see anyone else post. Everyone is welcome to agree or disagree with it.
That wouldn't really matter with Glavines pre 25 years though as the offensive spike started around 93 or so. With that being said yeah Glavine, Maddux, and esppecially Smoltz didn't start out guns blazing when they hit the majors. They needed some time to develop and most starters do. JT is 25 and has plenty of time to get better. Is he an ace? No and I doubt he ever gets there as true aces are hard to come by. But he is a good pitcher on an extremely team friendly deal and someone we shouldn't be trading unless blown away.
Yeah...you mean guys like Jake Arrieta, Corey Kluber, Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom, Dallas Keuchel, Carlos Carrasco, and Jeff Samardzija?
Just so we're clear, none of the above guys had been an all-star or could even be argued as 'all-star caliber' after their age 25 season, which Teheran hasn't pitched yet, and some were barely even in the majors at all at that point. Teheran has done more in the majors at this point in his career than any of the above guys had done.
Just saying.
I feel like this is probably incorrect. Some guys come in and play amazingly because of the additional years of travel ball/prep leagues before they're drafted, but there are still the guys who take time to develop. Guys like Trout are the minority, even among the best in the game.
Some strange names you chose to group together, and really doesn't tell the whole story. How about we take a look at the top 15 ERA leaders from last year:
Greinke: Interesting career. Outside of his age 25 CY Young Season, he really didn't start dominating until he came to the Dodgers at age 29.
Arrieta: Breakout season at age 29, was very bad until age 28
Kershaw: Dominated since age 21
Price: Dominated in his first full season at age 24
Keuchel: Came up at age 24, had two rough seasons, came out of nowhere at age 26 (7th round pick)
DeGrom: Came up as an age 26 rookie and dominated from the start. (9th round pick, underwhelming minor league stats).
Cole: Dominated from the start as a 22 year old rookie
Harvey: Dominated from the start as a 23 year old rookie
Sonny Gray: Has been very good since being a 23 year old rookie
John Lackey: N/A
Scherzer: Up and down his whole career until putting it together at age 28 (1st round pick)
Bumgarner: Has pretty much dominated from the start being an age 20 rookie
Carlos Martinez: First full season as a starter at age 23, very good season
Shelby Miller: First full season was age 22 and has been pretty good since
Lance Lynn: First full season at age 25, pretty solid since
Yea, it's hard to conclude much from these results. The people you mentioned as your examples all of the sudden put it together out of nowhere, and that's not something you can assume as a normal progression for any pitcher.
I obviously picked the guys that helped make my point.
All your list says is that big-time pitchers take many different routes to get there. Some dominate out of the gate, some take a while to even make the majors, and others struggle for several years before figuring it out.
That still goes against your point that guys are coming in and dominating at young ages and therefore Teheran's lack of true ace numbers through his age 24 season says something about his ceiling in the majors. Teheran has been a good major league pitcher so far in his 3-year career. Every pitcher goes through some ups and downs, save for the truly elite, like Kershaw. There's nothing in Teheran's career so far that suggests he can't become a TOR starter or ace.
Greinke was always good. He was just drafted by an incompetent organization. Greinke was pretty much his own pitching coach figuring **** out for himself. He arbitrarily decided to throw slower so that he could gain more control. His control wasnt that bad to begin with for a guy who started pitching 6 months before being drafted. Anyways when he got to the Royals he was decent. Keep in mind he started pitching about January 2002, was drafted in the top 10 in June 2002 as a pitcher and spent most of 2004 in the starting rotation with an ERA under 4. So he quickly realizes over 2004 that the Royals are losers and no matter how well he pitches they still have no chance so he starts pitching for fun instead of effectiveness. The fans turn on him and he quits. He spends his time away deciding if he even wants to play baseball anymore. Its during this time he attends Braves spring training as a fan and some scout tells Bill Shanks that kid is a future hall of famer if the Braves ever get him. So he comes back in 2007 as a starter and he is getting rocked. They move him to the bullpen where he is lights out. Someone asks him why he is so good as a reliever and not a starter and he tells them its because he throws harder as a reliever. I dont remember who but some genius said "Hey why dont you try throwing harder as a a starter". Since then his k rate has gone up, bounced around a little, but every season since he has had a higher k rate than his first 3 seasons. His walk rate has also continuously dropped over time. If he was with a competent organization there would not have been that bump in the road that slowed down his development. Yes, I am president of his fan club.
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