Short cut to competitive for money and risk

[Horsehide Harry]

So...watching MLB network and they were talking about the Marlins situation with their sale and the fact that they really needed to move Giancarlo Stanton and his contract but no one in baseball would take it even though he's having a good season. If the Marlins aren't desperate to move payroll, none of this works.

With that in mind, I got to thinking. I've always said that one way to find talent bargains is to be in position to benefit from the needs of other clubs. So, assuming the Braves are really serious about being competitive quickly, putting fans in the seats and are willing to spend more money to do it (raise the yearly payroll into the $140-$150M range), then it may be possible to swing a deal with the Marlins where the Braves take some of their payroll problems without giving up serious talent in return.

So my pitch: Marlins send Braves - RF Stanton (huge contract exposure and injury concerns by unquestioned talent), 3B Prado (again $15M per year and injury questions but still a pretty good player) and Edison Volquez ($13M in 2018) for ....not much. Send them maybe Wisler, Blair, Ruiz, Tyler Pike and Drew Harrington. Obviously not much at all but the idea is that they move the payroll and sell the team because of it. Under the premise the most important thing is moving the money and making the sale not what they get back.

Sure it would be a big gamble because you could have a mid 30's Stanton eating up a 5th of your payroll and not playing or playing badly. The Prado and Volquez risk is actually pretty minimal overall. So, it's really all about Stanton.

You could see the 2018 Braves start the season with something like:

CF Inciarte
2B Albies
1B Freeman
RF Stanton
LF Kemp/Markakis (I would move Kemp if at all possible, Markakis too, but wouldn't let it stop me assuming payroll space) (Acuna plays here ASAP)
3B Prado (Demeritte, Riley, Maitan here ASAP)
SS Swanson
C Flowers/Suzuki (Jackson?)

Bench: Markakis, Rodriguez, Suzuki, Adams, Camargo

Before Freeman and Stanton get their most expensive, you get an opportunity to divest of Markakis and Kemp and Prado.

The Rotation would be: Teheran, Folty, Volquez, then 2 of Sims, Nek, Allard, Fried, Soroka

Pen: Johnson, Viz, Krol, Motte, Ramirez, Jackson,

Obviously 2018 would still see holes with pitching. But, you have to be able to count on the minor arms to come through. The line-up, assuming you can stomach the long term Stanton risk, sets up potentially for years of good offenses (and defenses when Acuna plays LF) with two of the best power/production bats right in the middle to build around every year.

[ixiXSolidXixi]

I honestly doubt that the Marlins will give away Stanton basically for nothing and less for a same division team. Stanton still on his prime.

[Horsehide Harry]

I honestly doubt that the Marlins will give away Stanton basically for nothing and less for a same division team. Stanton still on his prime.

Probably true. However the premise of the MLB Network guys, and the one I'm working off of is that the M's desperately need to move Stanton's money but no team will be willing to take his contract.

They said Dodgers might take most of it. In other words, they were working an angle to try to get Stanton to the Dodgers. But, what I am saying is that suppose Stanton alone isn't enough and if someone would take Stanton, Prado AND Volquez it would be more attractive.

Obviously, from a talent for talent proposal it doesn't work. It only works if the Marlins care more about the sale and the money than the talent.

[ixiXSolidXixi]

This contract reminds me of Ryan Howard. The Phillies won a title but then need to swallow all that money. Plus the problem of those contract is that then we will have trouble to extend the players that worth get extended.

We should trade some of our prospects for Christian Yelich and go heavy again in this draft pitchers.

[zbhargrove]

As always Horside... thanks for the comedy

[Enscheff]

The minute Stanton signed his contract I half-seriously predicted he would be a trade target for the Braves at the end of their rebuild. The way that contract was structured almost assured he would be traded out of Miami after this season, and it lined up perfectly for the Braves to compete in 2018+.

We all know no team has won a WS with a single player taking up more than 20% of the total payroll. Stanton's deal after this season averages around $30M per, which would require a total payroll of $150M to keep him under the 20% mark...which is supposedly doable with the revenue from the new ballpark.

I'm not sure about that whole complex deal HH listed, but had the Braves not acquired Kemp they could have made a Stanton acquisition work.

[JxnMissFan]

No way I would take on that contact. If the contract is a good deal the Giants or Dodgers would already have him.

Yes he would jump start the rebuild for the next few years but can you imagine having to pay him 30 million at age 34. I think he will decline fast after 30.

[Knucksie]

Surprised that this scenario didn't involve "Trade Freeman."

[thewupk]

No way I would take on that contact. If the contract is a good deal the Giants or Dodgers would already have him.

Yes he would jump start the rebuild for the next few years but can you imagine having to pay him 30 million at age 34. I think he will decline fast after 30.

No. But I can imagine paying Kemp and Markakis a combined 29 million during their age 33 and 32 seasons while they produce a combined 0.9 bWAR so far.

[Southcack77]

No. But I can imagine paying Kemp and Markakis a combined 29 million during their age 33 and 32 seasons while they produce a combined 0.9 bWAR so far.

Problem is that Stanton is owed 25 million in his Age 38 season, unless he should for some reason opt out after 2020, which almost certainly would be a bad financial decision for him. His opt out would only make sense if he wanted to get out of Miami and realized that no one would trade for his contract.

If the Braves took this contact, which they absolutely shouldn't, the starting point of the negotiation would have to be that the Marlins would take back Kemp.

[nsacpi]

My mantra is I want to "win" as many trades as possible. By my rough calculation Stanton is likely to generate negative surplus value of 20-40M over the course of his contract. So the Marlins would have to include cash and/or assets worth at least that much for it to make sense for us to take on his contract.

[msstate7]

No. But I can imagine paying Kemp and Markakis a combined 29 million during their age 33 and 32 seasons while they produce a combined 0.9 bWAR so far.

KEMvP runs out in '19
Markakis runs out in '18
Stanton runs out in '28

[TheBravos]

That's maybe the worse contract ever written in baseball. Signing a guy for 13 years to that kind of money into his late 30's ?? He could be playing great and the contract still makes him basically untouchable. Any GM should be fired for even considering taking that on. Kemp has less power but better overall offensive numbers anyway. Stanton is Jup on steroids. Gonna hit HR's and gonna strike out a TON. Anyone making that kind of coin, better be hitting well over .300 with low strikes outs WITH high on base AND elite fielding.

[thewupk]

KEMvP runs out in '19
Markakis runs out in '18
Stanton runs out in '28

Indeed. Doesn't change that the Braves have a lot of money sunk in not so great production right now.

[thewupk]

I do wonder when the MLB contract bubble is going to bust. At the current rate Stanton's 30 million a year in the mid 2020's really won't be that big of a deal. Above average players will be getting close to that.

[JxnMissFan]

The Marlin I would like to see the Braves trade for is Yelich. He is young and signed to a good long term contract. I think he best seasons are still ahead of him.

An outfield of Ender, Acuna and Yelich would be a playoff caliber outfield.

[thewupk]

The minute Stanton signed his contract I half-seriously predicted he would be a trade target for the Braves at the end of their rebuild. The way that contract was structured almost assured he would be traded out of Miami after this season, and it lined up perfectly for the Braves to compete in 2018+.

We all know no team has won a WS with a single player taking up more than 20% of the total payroll. Stanton's deal after this season averages around $30M per, which would require a total payroll of $150M to keep him under the 20% mark...which is supposedly doable with the revenue from the new ballpark.

I'm not sure about that whole complex deal HH listed, but had the Braves not acquired Kemp they could have made a Stanton acquisition work.

I think a better exercise would be how much overpaid production can a team have and still win a WS. That's likely a little harder to figure out.

[TheBravos]

How about we just sign good players to smart deals from here on out (like Inciarte), instead of taking on bad ones. We have enough farm depth coming up in the future...we should be able to only sign what we really need. No need to acquire bad contracts, because we shouldn't have very many holes to fill.

[nsacpi]

How about we just sign good players to smart deals from here on out (like Inciarte), instead of taking on bad ones. We have enough farm depth coming up in the future...we should be able to only sign what we really need. No need to acquire bad contracts, because we shouldn't have very many holes to fill.

I think that has to be the plan. Instead of trying to win with a dramatic trade or two, you take a consistent approach that allows you to build a winner in a sustainable manner. And one of the most important aspects of that approach is to sign players to extensions before they get close to free agency.

[Carp]

I do wonder when the MLB contract bubble is going to bust. At the current rate Stanton's 30 million a year in the mid 2020's really won't be that big of a deal. Above average players will be getting close to that.

This is true. In 2007, did anyone really feel like there would be more than 25 players making over 20 million per year? In 10 years, Stanton's contract may not be a good deal, but it may not seem like the albatross it seems now. Especially when there are already talks of Harper getting over 40 million per year.