Looks Like Newcomb Will Get The Call

[Knucksie]

I can't say, because I took a hiatus from the board during that time, but I do remember the 20 HR bet.

Wise move. It was getting unreadable at the time.

[Tapate50]

So anyone that watched the game still think Newk ends up in the pen?

[nsacpi]

So anyone that watched the game still think Newk ends up in the pen?

I had to follow on MLB at bat. But I still think the odds are against his making it as a starter. It would be yuge if he did and I will be rooting for him. But he is two pitch pitcher right now.

[Carp]

I had to follow on MLB at bat. But I still think the odds are against his making it as a starter. It would be yuge if he did and I will be rooting for him. But he is two pitch pitcher right now.

David Price was a two pitch pitcher at the start of his career as well. When your top two pitches are that good, it really doesn't matter.

[nsacpi]

David Price was a two pitch pitcher at the start of his career as well. When your top two pitches are that good, it really doesn't matter.

price is an interesting comp....i think he pitched out of the pen for a while with the Rays

[clvclv]

So anyone that watched the game still think Newk ends up in the pen?

6.1 innings is far too early to make that determination to me personally, but I think we all saw enough yesterday to agree that Wisler should now be looked at as a pen guy moving forward (assuming he's not traded), while Newcomb and Sims should get the first two shots at replacing the vets as the season moves on.

I noticed several mentions about the improved defense at this level plus the higher quality of umpires contributing to Newk's success yesterday, and those are certainly valid points to consider. The success of Price as a two-pitch Pitcher is a good point as well. Of course, Folty was more-or-less only comfortable throwing his fastball and breaking ball when he initially broke in, and his change (and willingness to throw it) has been the key to his development and ability to "turn the corner". Many people get caught up in individual starts and forget that it's always going to be a process for the first 30 or so starts at this level.

One thing I feel is pretty safe to say - if the current Folty is now what we can expect every five days and Newcomb can be even 80% as good (and throw 70% strikes) as he was yesterday moving forward, this rotation is getting really close to being competitive. The most impressive thing I took from watching yesterday was that it looks like Newk already understands the importance of changing speeds, and he looked a lot like "the new" Folty out there - reaching back for a little more when needed, but RARELY overthrowing. If both of them can continue to bounce between 90-98 at any given point in the count, both are going to be really good. I couldn't help laughing when Newk would gas someone at 95, take a little off and back that up with 91, then drop that hook.

[JohnAdcox]

Funny you should mention that. I was listening to the game, and wondering what happened to Newk's changeup. Then I kept hearing about the different speeds on the fastball, and thought ... ah! There it is. Sort of.

[cajunrevenge]

price is an interesting comp....i think he pitched out of the pen for a while with the Rays

When first brought up and it was the playoffs.

[Carp]

price is an interesting comp....i think he pitched out of the pen for a while with the Rays

Just for the last couple weeks of the season and then in the postseason. He spent his entire rookie season in the rotation.

[Enscheff]

David Price was a two pitch pitcher at the start of his career as well. When your top two pitches are that good, it really doesn't matter.

As soon as Newk's pitchfx data is available we can compare it to Price's stuff and see if his stuff is really as good. Price and Lester will be the first 2 guys I compare his stuff against.

FB seemed good, and the curve seemed great. Looking forward to seeing the objective data. Hopefully facts don't offend too many of you.

[Oklahomabrave]

As soon as Newk's pitchfx data is available we can compare it to Price's stuff and see if his stuff is really as good. Price and Lester will be the first 2 guys I compare his stuff against.

FB seemed good, and the curve seemed great. Looking forward to seeing the objective data. Hopefully facts don't offend too many of you.

Thanks for doing the leg work- you looking into the slider and change for comparisons as well?

[Enscheff]

PitchFX data for Newk's first start (x = horizontal, z = vertical):

FA (69): 90.4-96.2, 93.0 avg, 5.2 xMov, 10.0 zMov, 11.4 Mov
CU (17): 75.5-78.6, 77.0 avg, -4.3 xMov, -7.3 zMov, 8.6 Mov
SL (8): 78.8-91.0, 81.8 avg, -5.7 xMov, -1.5 zMov, 9.2 Mov
CH (2): 84.9-85.0, 85.0 avg, 9.2 xMov, 8.7 zMov, 12.7 Mov

Comparing these pitches to the average pitch data from 2015 (keep in mind average velocity has increased a bit in the last few years): http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/the...ch-pitch-type/

His FB (seems to be a 4 seamer) velocity is about average for 2017 overall, but above average for a SP. It also features above average movement. It is definitely a 60 or better pitch, even if not the 70+ monster at 95-96+ as advertised. You can see by his heat map that he pumped this pitch belt high all night, mainly missing with it to his arm side. He won't continue to have success in those locations, so that's where command refinement can really help.

http://www.fangraphs.com/zonegrid.as...=FA&season=all

This curve/slider is odd. The breaking ball identified as the CU is a quality downer with good horizontal movement. We saw that pitch get good results several times. The one classified as SL looks like a harder, flatter CU. It's hard to say if those are really 2 different pitches, or if he simply fails to get on top of his his curve ~1/3 of the time and it flattens out on him.

If you look at his CU heat map: http://www.fangraphs.com/zonegrid.as...=CU&season=all

compared to his SL heat map: http://www.fangraphs.com/zonegrid.as...=SL&season=all

you will see he did a pretty good job keeping the curve down, and a terrible job keeping the "slider" down. This tells me the "slider" is a curve he overthrew, didn't get the expected downward movement, and it resulted in a breaking pitch left up. That can't happen. Those failed curves, or "sliders", are going to be crushed by MLB players.

He threw 2 pitches classified as CH. There isn't enough data on them to draw any conclusions, but the fact he only threw 2 tells me they don't trust that pitch yet.

In conclusion, Newk looked to have a ~60 4 seamer with average velo and good movement. His curve is a good above average downer, but sometimes he lets it flatten out and leaves it up in the zone. His change appears to be almost nonexistent. He needs to work on command, specifically keeping the FA away from belt high. He also needs to work on staying on top of that curve to avoid having it flatten out, staying up, and getting hammered. Lastly, that change needs to be more of a weapon than something he throws twice a game if he wants to consistently make it through an MLB lineup stacked with RHed hitters 3x or more.

[buck75]

Didn't Glavine only have one pitch (change-up) with three variations (slow, slower & slowest)?

[Oklahomabrave]

PitchFX data for Newk's first start (x = horizontal, z = vertical):

FA (69): 90.4-96.2, 93.0 avg, 5.2 xMov, 10.0 zMov, 11.4 Mov
CU (17): 75.5-78.6, 77.0 avg, -4.3 xMov, -7.3 zMov, 8.6 Mov
SL (8): 78.8-91.0, 81.8 avg, -5.7 xMov, -1.5 zMov, 9.2 Mov
CH (2): 84.9-85.0, 85.0 avg, 9.2 xMov, 8.7 zMov, 12.7 Mov

Comparing these pitches to the average pitch data from 2015 (keep in mind average velocity has increased a bit in the last few years): http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/the...ch-pitch-type/

His FB (seems to be a 4 seamer) velocity is about average for 2017 overall, but above average for a SP. It also features above average movement. It is definitely a 60 or better pitch, even if not the 70+ monster at 95-96+ as advertised. You can see by his heat map that he pumped this pitch belt high all night, mainly missing with it to his arm side. He won't continue to have success in those locations, so that's where command refinement can really help.

http://www.fangraphs.com/zonegrid.as...=FA&season=all

This curve/slider is odd. The breaking ball identified as the CU is a quality downer with good horizontal movement. We saw that pitch get good results several times. The one classified as SL looks like a harder, flatter CU. It's hard to say if those are really 2 different pitches, or if he simply fails to get on top of his his curve ~1/3 of the time and it flattens out on him.

If you look at his CU heat map: http://www.fangraphs.com/zonegrid.as...=CU&season=all

compared to his SL heat map: http://www.fangraphs.com/zonegrid.as...=SL&season=all

you will see he did a pretty good job keeping the curve down, and a terrible job keeping the "slider" down. This tells me the "slider" is a curve he overthrew, didn't get the expected downward movement, and it resulted in a breaking pitch left up. That can't happen. Those failed curves, or "sliders", are going to be crushed by MLB players.

He threw 2 pitches classified as CH. There isn't enough data on them to draw any conclusions, but the fact he only threw 2 tells me they don't trust that pitch yet.

In conclusion, Newk looked to have a ~60 4 seamer with average velo and good movement. His curve is a good above average downer, but sometimes he lets it flatten out and leaves it up in the zone. His change appears to be almost nonexistent. He needs to work on command, specifically keeping the FA away from belt high. He also needs to work on staying on top of that curve to avoid having it flatten out, staying up, and getting hammered. Lastly, that change needs to be more of a weapon than something he throws twice a game if he wants to consistently make it through an MLB lineup stacked with RHed hitters 3x or more.

Thanks for that appreciated. I believe the slider is in fact a slider, not a flatter curve. He mentioned in his interview he threw it and didn't have the results he wanted. My app classified five sliders.

[Enscheff]

Thanks for that appreciated. I believe the slider is in fact a slider, not a flatter curve. He mentioned in his interview he threw it and didn't have the results he wanted. My app classified five sliders.

If he doesn't get that slider down he definitely won't be getting the results he wants with it, that's for sure.

Pitchers with control problems should probably not try to maintain 2 similar breaking pitches. His curve is a plus pitch, and he locates it better than the slider, so stick with the curve. Ditch the slider, and work on the change.

[Enscheff]

Didn't Glavine only have one pitch (change-up) with three variations (slow, slower & slowest)?

I don't see how Glavine is relevant to Newcomb in any way, shape or form. Other than both being LHed, they couldn't be any more different.

[auyushu]

If he doesn't get that slider down he definitely won't be getting the results he wants with it, that's for sure.

Pitchers with control problems should probably not try to maintain 2 similar breaking pitches. His curve is a plus pitch, and he locates it better than the slider, so stick with the curve. Ditch the slider, and work on the change.

Eh, those two breaking pitches had different movement and speed, so I think the combination actually did a pretty good job of keeping the hitters off balance, even if he didn't have as tight of control on the slider. And at least one of his Ks were on that slider going knee high into the dirt and was a flat out nasty pitch. Given his changeup looked pretty awful, I think he'd have a better chance tightening up that slider for a third pitch. Granted as you say better hitters will definitely crush the mistakes if he loses control, but those changeups were meatballs out of the zone.

[Knucksie]

6.1 innings is far too early to make that determination to me personally,

Sometimes here it's decided that a pitcher is done before even reaching the majors.

[GovClintonTyree]

PitchFX data for Newk's first start (x = horizontal, z = vertical):

FA (69): 90.4-96.2, 93.0 avg, 5.2 xMov, 10.0 zMov, 11.4 Mov
CU (17): 75.5-78.6, 77.0 avg, -4.3 xMov, -7.3 zMov, 8.6 Mov
SL (8): 78.8-91.0, 81.8 avg, -5.7 xMov, -1.5 zMov, 9.2 Mov
CH (2): 84.9-85.0, 85.0 avg, 9.2 xMov, 8.7 zMov, 12.7 Mov

Comparing these pitches to the average pitch data from 2015 (keep in mind average velocity has increased a bit in the last few years): http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/the...ch-pitch-type/

His FB (seems to be a 4 seamer) velocity is about average for 2017 overall, but above average for a SP. It also features above average movement. It is definitely a 60 or better pitch, even if not the 70+ monster at 95-96+ as advertised. You can see by his heat map that he pumped this pitch belt high all night, mainly missing with it to his arm side. He won't continue to have success in those locations, so that's where command refinement can really help.

http://www.fangraphs.com/zonegrid.as...=FA&season=all

This curve/slider is odd. The breaking ball identified as the CU is a quality downer with good horizontal movement. We saw that pitch get good results several times. The one classified as SL looks like a harder, flatter CU. It's hard to say if those are really 2 different pitches, or if he simply fails to get on top of his his curve ~1/3 of the time and it flattens out on him.

If you look at his CU heat map: http://www.fangraphs.com/zonegrid.as...=CU&season=all

compared to his SL heat map: http://www.fangraphs.com/zonegrid.as...=SL&season=all

you will see he did a pretty good job keeping the curve down, and a terrible job keeping the "slider" down. This tells me the "slider" is a curve he overthrew, didn't get the expected downward movement, and it resulted in a breaking pitch left up. That can't happen. Those failed curves, or "sliders", are going to be crushed by MLB players.

He threw 2 pitches classified as CH. There isn't enough data on them to draw any conclusions, but the fact he only threw 2 tells me they don't trust that pitch yet.

In conclusion, Newk looked to have a ~60 4 seamer with average velo and good movement. His curve is a good above average downer, but sometimes he lets it flatten out and leaves it up in the zone. His change appears to be almost nonexistent. He needs to work on command, specifically keeping the FA away from belt high. He also needs to work on staying on top of that curve to avoid having it flatten out, staying up, and getting hammered. Lastly, that change needs to be more of a weapon than something he throws twice a game if he wants to consistently make it through an MLB lineup stacked with RHed hitters 3x or more.

Nice work. Thank you.

[Russ2dollas]

PitchFX data for Newk's first start (x = horizontal, z = vertical):

FA (69): 90.4-96.2, 93.0 avg, 5.2 xMov, 10.0 zMov, 11.4 Mov
CU (17): 75.5-78.6, 77.0 avg, -4.3 xMov, -7.3 zMov, 8.6 Mov
SL (8): 78.8-91.0, 81.8 avg, -5.7 xMov, -1.5 zMov, 9.2 Mov
CH (2): 84.9-85.0, 85.0 avg, 9.2 xMov, 8.7 zMov, 12.7 Mov

Comparing these pitches to the average pitch data from 2015 (keep in mind average velocity has increased a bit in the last few years): http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/the...ch-pitch-type/

His FB (seems to be a 4 seamer) velocity is about average for 2017 overall, but above average for a SP. It also features above average movement. It is definitely a 60 or better pitch, even if not the 70+ monster at 95-96+ as advertised. You can see by his heat map that he pumped this pitch belt high all night, mainly missing with it to his arm side. He won't continue to have success in those locations, so that's where command refinement can really help.

http://www.fangraphs.com/zonegrid.as...=FA&season=all

This curve/slider is odd. The breaking ball identified as the CU is a quality downer with good horizontal movement. We saw that pitch get good results several times. The one classified as SL looks like a harder, flatter CU. It's hard to say if those are really 2 different pitches, or if he simply fails to get on top of his his curve ~1/3 of the time and it flattens out on him.

If you look at his CU heat map: http://www.fangraphs.com/zonegrid.as...=CU&season=all

compared to his SL heat map: http://www.fangraphs.com/zonegrid.as...=SL&season=all

you will see he did a pretty good job keeping the curve down, and a terrible job keeping the "slider" down. This tells me the "slider" is a curve he overthrew, didn't get the expected downward movement, and it resulted in a breaking pitch left up. That can't happen. Those failed curves, or "sliders", are going to be crushed by MLB players.

He threw 2 pitches classified as CH. There isn't enough data on them to draw any conclusions, but the fact he only threw 2 tells me they don't trust that pitch yet.

In conclusion, Newk looked to have a ~60 4 seamer with average velo and good movement. His curve is a good above average downer, but sometimes he lets it flatten out and leaves it up in the zone. His change appears to be almost nonexistent. He needs to work on command, specifically keeping the FA away from belt high. He also needs to work on staying on top of that curve to avoid having it flatten out, staying up, and getting hammered. Lastly, that change needs to be more of a weapon than something he throws twice a game if he wants to consistently make it through an MLB lineup stacked with RHed hitters 3x or more.

Nice work

The change up is still the key imo. Flowers said they threw a couple. It's been his worst pitch for a while

He calls the sl and cu different pitches. I said in the thread I think he just throws his curveball harder. I think he modulates the speed by throwing it harder and less break is more predictable. I don't love it. I like fb cu change

The fb is not straight as I said. He does throw harder than he did most of the time. Never seen 90 mph fb before. Nerves? Strategy to modulate speeds? I don't know. He usually holds mid 90s the entire outing....but outs are sometimes short

If there is a breakdown for lh starters I'd think his fb would do even better

Encouraging start but I'm still not sold he's a starter until we get more data. Some guys are good starters on two pitches but most need 3