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Thread: Quarter Pole Check-In - Bullpen Edition

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    NL Rookie of the Year Acuña’s Bat Flip's Avatar
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    Quarter Pole Check-In - Bullpen Edition

    Jerry Blevins - 0-0, 6 G, 3.1 IP, 4 ER, 2 H, 3 BB, 4 K, 10.80 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 3 HLD.

    Jacob Webb - 1-0, 12 G, 10 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 5 BB, 13 K, 1.80 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 1 HLD, 1 SV in 1 opp.

    Dan Winkler - 1-0, 14 G, 12 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 4 BB, 13 K, 1.50 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 3 HLD.

    Josh Tomlin - 1-0, 13 G, 20.2 IP, 10 R, 9 ER, 18 H, 2 BB, 14 K, 3.92 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 4 HLD, 1 blown save opp.

    Sean Newcomb - 0-0, 4 G, 4.2 IP, 0 R, 6 H, 0 BB, 5 K, 0.00 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 2 HLD.

    Jonny Venters - 0-0, 7 G, 3.0 IP, 6 ER, 6 H, 5 BB, 5 K, 18.00 ERA, 3.67 WHIP, 1 HLD, 1 SV in 2 opp.

    Jesse Biddle - 0-1, 14 G, 11.1 IP, 8 R, 4 ER, 14 H, 9 BB, 11 K, 3.18 ERA, 2.03 WHIP.

    A.J. Minter - 0-4, 15 G, 11.0 IP, 12 ER, 17 H, 9 BB, 16 K, 9.82 ERA, 2.36 WHIP, 3 SV in 4 opp and 1 HLD.

    Luke Jackson - 2-0, 18 G, 20.0 IP, 5 ER, 17 H, 7 BB, 24 K, 2.25 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 7 HLD, 5 SV in 8 opp.

    I know it’s a small sample size in some cases but Blevins appears to be the LOGGY we all thought he was / is.

    We may have found a hidden gem in Webb.

    Winkler hasn’t shocked anyone in doing his job well.

    Tomlin throws strikes and is an innings eater that has pitched over his head and bailed us out a few times but also made us want to pull our hair out at times.

    Newcomb has been outstanding in a small sample size out of the pen, I really hope this holds up, I wanted to send Julio into this role but Newk has really been brilliant in this role so no complaints.

    Venters was said to have made some adjustments but we have only seen him face one hitter, it was a very good hitter and he fell behind in the count 3-1 but rallied to get Peralta to ground out to first and earn the save on Saturday night in Arizona. I’m interested to see more of him to see these adjustments and if they work.

    Luke Jackson has been a savior having only two bad games, one to start the season and one bad pitch costing him a save in Arizona. All I can say is Wow! The role of closer is his for now.

    Biddle is still working on some adjustments in AAA, we’ll see how that goes.

    Minter is also in AAA trying to learn how to throw strikes again and work on things you don’t have time to adjust in the MLB season.

    I didn’t go into the young RP AAA shuttle and them not getting a chance to pitch and just sit in the pen.

    If Newk can keep it up that minimizes the need to go out and get a Tony Watson or Will Smith from SF but the extra depth would help depending on cost.

    The main questions are what do we have in O'Day?

    Can Luke Jackson keep it up and be counted on to be the eighth inning setup man when / if we sign Kimbrel?
    Last edited by Acuña’s Bat Flip; 05-13-2019 at 03:49 PM.

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    I'm not sure we need to see the number of Wins, Losses, Hits and Holds from guys in the BP, but the most predictive stat for pitchers is xwOBA.

    Here are the xwOBA values for all BP pitchers that have faced 40+ batters:

    Jacob Webb 0.233
    Luke Jackson 0.255
    Dan Winkler 0.290
    Sean Newcomb 0.301 (a lot of this is as a SP)
    Touki Toussaint 0.303
    Josh Tomlin 0.317
    Wes Parsons 0.334
    Chad Sobotka 0.343
    Jesse Biddle 0.382
    A.J. Minter 0.388
    Shane Carle 0.467

    In short, anyone above Tomlin is good, Tomlin is a fine long man, and anyone below Tomlin is not so good.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    I'm not sure we need to see the number of Wins, Losses, Hits and Holds from guys in the BP, but the most predictive stat for pitchers is xwOBA.

    Here are the xwOBA values for all BP pitchers that have faced 40+ batters:

    Jacob Webb 0.233
    Luke Jackson 0.255
    Dan Winkler 0.290
    Sean Newcomb 0.301 (a lot of this is as a SP)
    Touki Toussaint 0.303
    Josh Tomlin 0.317
    Wes Parsons 0.334
    Chad Sobotka 0.343
    Jesse Biddle 0.382
    A.J. Minter 0.388
    Shane Carle 0.467

    In short, anyone above Tomlin is good, Tomlin is a fine long man, and anyone below Tomlin is not so good.
    Jacob Webb, doe.
    "Can a man still be brave if he is afraid? That is the only time a man can be brave." - G.R.R.M (Game of Thrones)

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    NL Rookie of the Year Acuña’s Bat Flip's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    I'm not sure we need to see the number of Wins, Losses, Hits and Holds from guys in the BP, but the most predictive stat for pitchers is xwOBA.

    Here are the xwOBA values for all BP pitchers that have faced 40+ batters:

    Jacob Webb 0.233
    Luke Jackson 0.255
    Dan Winkler 0.290
    Sean Newcomb 0.301 (a lot of this is as a SP)
    Touki Toussaint 0.303
    Josh Tomlin 0.317
    Wes Parsons 0.334
    Chad Sobotka 0.343
    Jesse Biddle 0.382
    A.J. Minter 0.388
    Shane Carle 0.467

    In short, anyone above Tomlin is good, Tomlin is a fine long man, and anyone below Tomlin is not so good.
    So basically what I posted but I left Touki off the list on purpose and we don’t know if Venters found something or not yet? Got it!
    Last edited by Acuña’s Bat Flip; 05-13-2019 at 04:06 PM.

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    Expects Yuge Games nsacpi's Avatar
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    Ranking the in-house options (and I'm going to include guys starting in AAA):

    Righties:
    1. Webb
    2. Jackson
    3. Winkler
    4. Wilson (30Ks and 7 BBs in 31 AAA innings)
    5. Touki
    6. Wright
    7. Tomlin
    8. Parsons
    9. Sobotka (currently on the DL, would move up this list if he can spend some time in AAA and improve the walk rate)
    10. Carle
    11. Rowen (AAAA pitcher pitching well in AAA)
    12. Leyva (pitching well in AAA)

    Lefties
    1. Minter (I think he will sort things out in AAA, the stuff is there)
    2. Newk
    3. Biddle (see comments on Minter)
    4. Venters (good rehab stint in AAA, was solid last year)
    5. Blevins
    6. Dayton
    7. Clouse (injured in AAA at the moment)
    8. Allard

    If we stay in house, I could see one of Touki/Wilson/Wright supplanting Tomlin as long man. The righties would be Webb, Jackson, Winkler plus one of Touki/Wilson/Wright. Could we use an upgrade. Sure. But what is available in-house is not bad.

    Among the lefties it would be Minter, Newk, Biddle and Venters. Biddle is out of options. Blevins would be odd man out, but I suspect we will find a way to hold on to him. Again an upgrade would be nice, but we could in principle have a decent crew of lefties just from the in-house candidates.

    A case can be made that AA should exercise some patience and wait to see how things play out before acquiring bullpen reinforcements.

    Early returns on Newk to the pen are promising. I'm more of a Luke Jackson skeptic than most around here (he hangs a slider or two every game he pitches, lately the hitters have not been punishing them). I like Webb. I still like Wilson as a starter, but spending the second half of this year in the major league pen might be a good move both for him and the major league team.
    Last edited by nsacpi; 05-13-2019 at 04:29 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    Ranking the in-house options (and I'm going to include guys starting in AAA):

    Righties:
    1. Jackson
    2. Webb
    3. Winkler
    4. Toussaint
    5. Wilson (30Ks and 7 BBs in 31 AAA innings)
    6. Wright
    7. Tomlin
    8. Parsons
    9. Sobotka (currently on the DL, would move up this list if he can spend some time in AAA and improve the walk rate)
    10. Carle
    11. Rowen (AAAA pitcher pitching well in AAA)
    12. Leyva (pitching well in AAA)

    Lefties
    1. Minter (I think he will sort things out in AAA, the stuff is there)
    2. Newk
    3. Biddle (see comments on Minter)
    4. Venters (good rehab stint in AAA, was solid last year)
    5. Blevins
    6. Dayton
    7. Clouse (injured in AAA at the moment)
    8. Allard

    If we stay in house, I could see one of Touki/Wilson/Wright supplanting Tomlin as long man. The righties would be Jackson, Webb, Winkler plus one of Touki/Wilson/Wright. Could we use an upgrade. Sure. But what is available in-house is not bad.

    Among the lefties it would be Minter, Newk, Biddle and Venters. Biddle is out of options. Blevins would be odd man out, but I suspect we will find a way to hold on to him. Again an upgrade would be nice, but we could in principle have a decent crew of lefties just from the in-house candidates.

    A case can be made that AA should exercise some patience and wait to see how things play out before acquiring bullpen reinforcements.

    Early returns on Newk to the pen are promising. I'm more of a Luke Jackson skeptic than most around here. I like Webb. I still like Wilson as a starter, but spending the second half of this year in the major league pen might be a good move both for him and the major league team.
    I agree. Minter certainly has some things working in his favor when you look at the actual stats. I would have guessed he had issued more than 9 BB and had a lot more blown saves than just one.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Acuña’s Bat Flip View Post
    So basically what I posted but I left Touki off the list on purpose and we don’t know if Venters found something or not yet? Got it!
    Pretty much. I was trying to show stats that are a bit more predictive than win/loss record and holds though.

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    I'm not worried about Minter if he is healthy. He'll revert to good form at some point otherwise.

    Personally, I still would rather see Newcomb in the rotation than Teheran. I think trying Julio as leverage reliever (rather than a long ma) is worth a look. He might have the makeup for it and you could let him go two innings when it made sense.

    I'm a little more patient than most with Newk. I know.

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    Newk and Julion would be perfect as a tandem against teams that like to load up their lineups for the platoon advantage. It would work something like this:

    1) A righty opener
    2) Bring in Newk against the lefty heavy lineup
    3) Bring in Julion if the opposing manager flips his lineup

    or
    2) Lefty Opener followed by Julion followed by Newk
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    Teams are smart enough to stacks lineup based on the “bulk pitcher” rather than opener. There’s no need to use an opener to get the advantage from pairing Newk with another RHP.

    The opener works on set lineups that skew one way or the other, not against teams like the Dodgers who platoon a lot.

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    Expects Yuge Games nsacpi's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    Teams are smart enough to stacks lineup based on the “bulk pitcher” rather than opener. There’s no need to use an opener to get the advantage from pairing Newk with another RHP.

    The opener works on set lineups that skew one way or the other, not against teams like the Dodgers who platoon a lot.
    True. But there is still something to be gained by having a choice of who is going to be the bulk pitcher. And having a second guy who can go multiple innings if the manager chooses to flip his lineup.
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    I think Newcomb is much more of a bullpen weapon than Teheran. Teheran is well suited to being an innings eater and just let him do what he does. Newcomb, though, with his combo of fastball/curve is devastating in 1 inning scenarios. Honestly, it's about time some of this plethora of young starters get turned into fantastic relievers. It may not be what's best for them in their career prospects, but it's best for the Braves right now.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Nerfherders View Post
    I think Newcomb is much more of a bullpen weapon than Teheran. Teheran is well suited to being an innings eater and just let him do what he does. Newcomb, though, with his combo of fastball/curve is devastating in 1 inning scenarios. Honestly, it's about time some of this plethora of young starters get turned into fantastic relievers. It may not be what's best for them in their career prospects, but it's best for the Braves right now.
    Fried has said his time in the pen was beneficial. Lots of other starters have said the same. Earl Weaver liked to break in a young pitcher that way.
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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    Ranking the in-house options ...

    A case can be made that AA should exercise some patience and wait to see how things play out before acquiring bullpen reinforcements.

    Early returns on Newk to the pen are promising. I'm more of a Luke Jackson skeptic than most around here (he hangs a slider or two every game he pitches, lately the hitters have not been punishing them). I like Webb. I still like Wilson as a starter, but spending the second half of this year in the major league pen might be a good move both for him and the major league team.
    I'm guessing he is unbelievably well-suited to follow this suggestion.

    Has any GM ever gone from Trader Jack to Stand Pat as completely as AA?

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    Secretary of Statistics AerchAngel's Avatar
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    Great conversation and Acuna with some stats thrown in, nice.

    I like the Earl Weaver thought and I can some wisdom behind that.

    Touiki, Wright, Wilson, Anderson, they all throw very hard. Let them air it out in relief. Then ease them in and let those like Julion, Tomlin as trade bait.

    Even though I am a Julion fan and he is crafty but today's players have evolved and you will never know they figure him out totally.

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