BedellBrave (11-24-2014)
Ah, the good ol' Horrible Ratios* Defense. "If you ignore the times when he is bad, he is amazing!"
I actually have high hopes for Miller, so I wouldn't argue against him having a lot of potential. But... that's potential. If he'd actually pitched 3/4 of his career thus far like an ace, he'd have a career FIP under 4.00.
*Happy Birthday Horacio!
Hawk (11-24-2014)
FIP and BABIP are critical factors in determining whether or not a pitcher is TOR quality? Would have never looked at those numbers with any real weight.
Yes it is fact. Just like Chris Johnson's awesome season in 2013 is a fact. Doesn't mean we should expect his super high BABIP to continue. Guess what? It didn't. Players can buck the trend with BABIP for a season. It happens quite often. But continuing to do that? Well that doesn't happen. Miller will not have a BABIP in the low 200's in 2015. If he wants an ERA that's not in the upper 3's or low 4's he's going to need to improve his K rate and BB rate.
Or maybe he learned a sinker from Justin Masterson and learned how to get ground ball outs, which gives statheads the illusion of less dominance but what it really represents is a pitcher maturing and figuring it out.
Tim Hudson was sinker heavy with ratios that belied his effectiveness.
You can't just look at the statistics. You have to watch the games.
Hawk (11-24-2014)
The (missed) point is that Miller's 63 career Major League starts (beginning at age 21) are hardly empirical.
Last edited by Hawk; 11-24-2014 at 10:20 AM.
Thank you.
It's funny how many posters will argue that Jason Heyward can still become a consistent .800 plus OPS guy with 30 HR power because he's only 25, yet believe Miller has hit his ceiling at age 24 with only two seasons under his belt. When you argue for one of those points you contradict the other.
For the record I think both players have their best baseball in front of them. Tremendous upside for both guys.
Perhaps I'm late to the party, but i think the word is "POTENTIAL." Conversely, we've been talking potential with JHey for years as well. A point was made that Miller was as highly thought of as Teheran and to have them both is a good thing. I guess the painful point for most will just be what we gave up to get him.
clvclv (11-24-2014)
You can't just look at a number.
I have no idea if Miller is a TOR guy or will be. But there are multiple evaluators who have said that he changed his approach. More CB, sinker, etc.
You keep screaming BABIP. That works if the guy pitches the same way with different results. In this case the guy make changes. Obviously luck could have made those changes more impactful that they really were. We are talking really low sample size here.
Hawk (11-24-2014)
I think Miller is going to mature into a solid #2 by 2017, and I guess that is the point of this trade. Just have to hope that the rest of the pieces come together in time.
clvclv (11-24-2014)