I'm not. Look at the leaders in OBP in any given year. Nearly every single player near a .400 OBP has 20 HR power. There are a few players like Fowler or Mauer that take so many walks that they overcome their lack of power, but in general it's hard to get that kind of OBP without power, because pitchers aren't going to be afraid to attack hitters that aren't as likely to crush the ball into the stands.Originally Posted by Jay212033
Eaton's value spike last year was due to a sudden jump in defensive value. If you assume that was more mirage than truth, which I thought NL is reasonable, this is a pretty bad deal for the Nats. I've seen some refer to the Shelby deal in comparison.
The depth in our system is not made up of utility guys and #6 starters. We don't have 10 B prospects, we have 2-3 A prospects and about 15 B prospects, several of whom project to be potential A prospects down the road.
On Base Percentage has ZERO to do with HRs! If he hit 200 Singles, Walked 100+ times and say was HBP 20+ times in 600 ABs tell me what his On Base Percentage would be people?! It's the amount of times he gets on base not the total bases!
Dude was also worth 1.8 dWAR in 2014 playing mostly CF. He was pretty average in small samples in 2013 and 2012. If any year appears to be the abberation, it's 2015.
He has been a very consistent 120 OPS+ hitter, and that certainly isn't going away.
Eaton is easily a 4+ WAR player, and possibly 5+ WAR if his defense holds up.
They know this.
http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sourc...IqnMjXvtqyWz6A
Again you guys are confusing OPS with OBP!
They're not acting like it!
I...can't...handle...the...stupid....
Guys with no power don't get walked enough to have a .400 OBP. It simply doesn't happen.
Please, go back to the ESPN boards or wherever you came from. You are so stupid you make guys like Clv and Gov and zb look like Einstein, DaVinci, and Hawking.
Fangraps has last year as the outlier.
It's just hard to make sense of his defensive metrics so far. He's been anything from a 3-6 WAR player, and it's hard to know which extreme he'll be closer to going forward.
He's definitely a good player, but Giolito and Lopez? That's insane.
It does happen, but it is definitely fairly rare. I would probably project Albies' ceiling to be somewhere around a .375 OBP but you never know.
Even if he is only a 3 WAR player, he is being paid $38M over his 5 years of control. That is a bare minimum surplus of $82M. If he is a 4 WAR player that's $122M in surplus. If he is better than that his surplus goes even higher.
Giolito is probably worth $70M, and his star is fading. Lopez is likely worth $30M. No idea what Dunning is worth.
It all seems to add up to me.
Guys with single digit HR power typically peak around a .360-.370 OBP. I don't think that qualifies as "near .400".
And that guy Jay is still, by far, the dumbest poster here.
Ventura's Stolen Bases
To try to explain it an extreme way- if a guy has no power, pitchers will throw it down the middle instead of nibbling, so a guy will basically never get walked. For Albies to get a .400 OBP, then, he would have to have a .360 average, maybe even higher, because he'll get walks at the same rate as Andrelton Simmons due to their lack of power.
I'm exaggerating, but does that make sense? (Obviously Andrelton walks less because of extreme contact as well as lack of power, but I''m exaggerating to make a point)
Last edited by Managuarantano's Volunteers; 12-07-2016 at 07:17 PM.
I get the numbers, but I don't see them as the definitive values you do. If either Giolito or Lopez hits, they will provide way more value than Eaton.
And even in light of payroll limitations, I value talent over monetary savings, especially for a team like the Nats. Eaton is a good to very good player, but I believe Giolito/Lopez is a significant overpay.
I remember Eaton primarily as the failed Diamondbacks prospect who went on to be pretty decent in Chicago. I would not have guessed that he would command such a haul, but I suppose .280/.360 15hr is worth more than it used to be even considering the position. But I am not a big AL guy and certainly not a ChiSox watcher.
The thing that is curious to me is that he went from being slap hitter to a reduced average and 15 HRs somewhat abruptly in 2015. Then put up pretty much the exact same season in 2016. Sort of an interesting progression.
To me, this trade suggests Braves should have been looking at what they cold get for Inciarte.
Friend, please quit attempting to explain what OBP is to me. I am well aware that you don't get bonus points for getting XBHs in the calculation. What you're continuing to miss is the correlation between power hitters and high OBPs. Pitchers aren't afraid of players with marginal power, which suppresses walk rates. I'm not saying it's impossible for a hitter with Albies' profile to get to a .400ish OBP, but the deck is stacked against him.
Ventura's Stolen Bases
Yeah...I think I would trade 3 years of Inciarte for that Natinals package. (I know he's got more than 3 years left)
Of course, but no one is giving us that package for Inciarte. Eaton is better.
I wasnt talking about the Braves
"Yes, I did think Aldrich was good UNTIL I SAW HIM PLAY. "- thethe
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