Agreed. The D-Backs deal helped a great deal but there is still a lot of talent in this organization.Originally Posted by Preacher
If not for the trade then the Bravse would have had a 3-5 year rebuild just like every organization that goes through it.
Natural Immunity Croc
Only one person was in the right place at the right time, so you are correct. Just like when your bored friend goes all in during poker night so he can leave. Whoever won that hand isn't a good poker player. They were just the guy who happened to pay the big blind that particular hand so saw the hand all the way through.
Any story you read about the trade talks about Stewart being an idiot. None of them laud Coppy for being a genius. The only folks that think it was Coppy's doing are Braves fans that want to pump up their GM.
Certainly the Swanson trade was the pivotal moment in the rebuild, acquiring two legit positional players in one action was a coup; not arguing that.
But Shelby Miller was the big piece used to acquire Jason Heyward, Shelby Miller was then used to acquire Swanson/Inciarte.
My point is, he was a very valuable piece and if we hadn't traded him to the DBacks we likely would have flipped him somewhere else for a strong package, and we already had in house options for SS/CF.
Sure.... MLB GMs are similar to a group of 5 drunk friends playing poker at night.
Its OK to give Coppy credit for doing what no other GM did. It really is OK.
Lots he's done that I didn't love, didn't like attaching BJ to Kimbrel, didn't like the Jackson trade, obviously the HO was a disaster.... but you gotta give the guy credit where its due.
Coppy certainly deserves some of the credit for landing Inciarte and Swanson. And you are also correct when you assert the Braves would have a Top 5 system with a Mallex/Albies/Jace young core even if Stewart had never been given a GM job.
You just described a very average, or slightly below average rebuild. That's what I claim Coppy to be...and average GM that has done an average job rebuilding the Braves. He lucked into Swanson and Inciarte, but that doesn't make him any better.
He was fortunate to get both but he would have at least got one of those for Shelby from most other GM's.
Natural Immunity Croc
sometimes a GM's worth is what he doesn't do in addition to what he does.
I really think grading Coppy after 2 seasons is ignorant.. but what else are we to do.. I wouldn't give him anything below a B personal. Not trading FF and JT at obviously lower points last season was brilliant. Holding out on Shelby to be in position to take the drunk guys money was also brilliant. It is dumb to look at things in such a vacuum, but again, what else are we to do....
Ventura's Stolen Bases
If either you or nscapi wanted to make a new thread for it, I think it would be pretty cool (obviously only if you have extra time for calculating fun stats). I'm bad at this stuff or I would do it.
Still might give it a shot by the end of the week if neither of you guys get a chance because I think it's an interesting exercise.
If someone is willing to break down the various trades of the 3 teams the last couple of years I will work on it.
the angle I would suggest is what did we and the white Sox give in the way of major league talent...the expected surplus value of those players for their remaining years of contractual control...you have to go back and make the evaluation as of when each player was traded...good luck and have fun
Ventura's Stolen Bases
So to do this, I need to look up how much a win was worth 2 years ago, correct (or how many ever years it was when guys were traded)?
Projections are going to be the major sticking point. Nobody is going to agree on how to project these guys. We have many posters here who still want to rate players based on BA, RBIs and how much "protection" they give to other hitters.
And since Cajun doesn't really know what surplus value is, he will just pop in with a random, "but what's his surplus value" comments because he thinks he's being clever.
Ventura's Stolen Bases
Yeah. I'd probably have to go on Baseball America rankings alone at the time or something to make it feasible.
I'll just do a bad job this weekend and let you guys correct my methodology, haha.
Pretty much. Also pointofpittsburgh somewhere has the surplus value of a prospect in 2015 and 2016. Their 2017 update should be coming up soon. To be totally fair we would need that update (or someone do one for 2017) to get the most accurate information available. Same goes for the farm system rankings based on surplus value as well.
You could simplify your life by working with wins rather than the dollar value of wins. You need to project (be brave) how many wins Sale and Eaton are expected to generate for the remaining years of their contracts. And compare that with the expected wins before free agency of the guys the Braves traded during the rebuild (Heyward, Justin, Gattis, Kimbrel, Simmons). Just getting those two numbers would be a significant contribution to the discussion.
After that we can adjust for salaries. One step at a time. It will be less daunting that way.
The first sentence coming from you is what is silly.
That's relatively simple. Based on BR, I would say the following could be expected:
Heyward: 1 year, 6 WAR, $7.8 million due
Upton: 1 year, 3 WAR, $14.5 million due
Kimbrel: 4 years, 10 WAR, $46.5 million due
Simmons: 5 years, 20 WAR, $53 million due
Sale: 3 years, 15-20 WAR, $38 million due
Eaton: 5 years, 20-25 WAR, $29 million due
So in raw numbers, you're looking at a projection from the Braves' side of about 39 WAR at a cost of $121.8 million. On the White Sox' side, you're looking at a projection of about 35-45 WAR at a cost of $67 million.
So in raw numbers, the White Sox were looking at quite a bit more value they were trading; roughly the same value in wins at just over half the cost. And if you consider that it's likely more valuable to get the same WAR out of fewer players, the White Sox were working with even more value there.
and Gattis?
Excellent insightful contribution, as always. Thank you.
It's going to be a lot tougher to determine a good projection for Gattis.
Posting Permissions
Reply With Quote