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Thread: Keith Law's Top 25 players under age 25

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    Keith Law's Top 25 players under age 25

    It is a premium piece, but I will at least list the Braves on the list and the writeups. No prospects or player with rookie eligibility were considered

    Link to full article

    4. Andrelton Simmons
    AGE: 24DOB: 9/4/89HT: 6-2WT: 170POS: SS
    AVG .248OBP .296OPS .692HR 17SB 6WAR 6.7
    Current: The best defensive player in baseball, Simmons rates at the top of the 20-80 scouting scale in both his glove and his arm, and has continued to exceed everyone's expectations, including Atlanta's, at the plate, thanks to high contact rates that have reached absurd proportions this year. Simmons has yet to strike out through 45 plate appearances, which has helped balance out his low walk rates because he's fast enough to create a few extra hits a year.

    Future: Simmons' career to date at the plate looks a lot like some other well-regarded shortstops, including Ozzie Smith, Barry Larkin, and Omar Vizquel, none of whom was much to write home about with the stick early in his career, but all of whom posted high contact rates from their rookie years. Simmons is a better defender than Vizquel and has more pop than Omar or Ozzie, but he does have to develop the patience that Ozzie and Larkin both found by their mid-20s. The downside here is a better-fielding Shawon Dunston, but the upside is a Hall of Fame-caliber shortstop who sparks debates over whether he or the Wizard is the best defensive shortstop of all time.




    8. Freddie Freeman
    AGE: 24DOB: 9/12/89HT: 6-5WT: 225POS: 1B
    AVG .319OBP .396OPS .897HR 23SB 1WAR 5.5
    Current: Freeman seems to have established himself as an elite hitter for average, with high contact and line-drive rates, thanks to a smooth, repeatable swing and a great eye for recognizing pitches, especially changeups, so despite modest walk rates he's been extremely valuable as a hitter -- on top of above-average defense at first. Among position players eligible for this list, only Trout has produced more offensive value (per FanGraphs) since the start of 2013.

    Future: Freeman's .371 BABIP last year looked like a fluke, given his previous career high of .339 (in 2011), but he's maintained it through the first two weeks; only two hitters managed a .350 combined BABIP over the combined 2012-13 period, Trout and Andrew McCutchen, so Freeman would be in very select territory if he can even come close to his 2013 figure. He doesn't otherwise offer projection, and it's not a 30-homer swing, but perhaps he'll find another level as a potential batting-average leader who does more on contact than most hitters in baseball.



    11. Jason Heyward
    AGE: 24DOB: 8/9/89HT: 6-5WT: 245POS: RF
    AVG .254OBP .349OPS .776HR 14SB 2WAR 3.6
    Current: Heyward can be maddening, as he has all-world talent but hasn't put everything together for a full season ... although he's also still 24 years old, and has been on every iteration of this list that I've done. Heyward is a plus-plus defender in right with outstanding patience at the plate, and he shows plus power when his swing is right (not often) and his shoulder isn't barking. The reference point of his rookie season has colored everyone's impressions of Heyward's performance since then, but FanGraphs had him at 3.4 WAR last year in just 104 games, when only 10 players in the entire National League reached 5.0 WAR for the whole season.

    Future: It's all here -- the power, the patience, the swing, the athleticism, the aptitude -- and one of these years he'll stay healthy for 150 games and do all of these things at once and win an MVP award and produce cold fusion and solve the Riemann Hypothesis, too.


    15. Julio Teheran
    AGE: 23DOB: 1/27/91HT: 6-2WT: 200POS: RHP
    IP 185.2K 170BB 45HR 22ERA 3.20WAR 3.2
    Current: Teheran made significant strides in 2013 toward his No. 1 starter ceiling, mixing in more curveballs after a very fastball/changeup heavy start to the season that saw him struggle to keep the ball down. He's still too slider-focused -- he gave up nine of his 22 home runs allowed in 2013 on the slider -- and his arm slot seems better suited to the curveball, but the slider gets more swings and misses for him, and he's a little bit caught between the two pitches. His fastball is plus already, up in the zone a little too often, but the velocity is very easy and he throws plenty of strikes with it. The changeup is his best pitch and his main weapon for keeping guys off the fastball, even though the change doesn't directly generate a lot of swings and misses.

    Future: The development of either breaking ball into an above-average pitch is the next step for him, taking him from an above-average starter to an ace. Teheran was so effective at a young age that he reached the majors before he was a finished product, but is still good enough to help Atlanta while he continues to mature as a pitcher, and in another year or two he'll be at the top of the rotation.




    Full List:
    1. Mike Trout
    2. Bryce Harper
    3. Jose Fernandez
    4. Andrelton Simmons
    5. Manny Machado
    6. Gincarlo Stanton
    7. Madison Bumgarner
    8. Freddie Freeman
    9. Will Myers
    10. Michael Wacha
    11. Jason Heyward
    12. Sonny Gray
    13. Gerrit Cole
    14. Yasiel Puig
    15. Julio Teheran
    16. Christian Yellich
    17. Erick Hosmer
    18. Zach Wheeler
    19. Martin Perez
    20. Salvador Perez
    21. Jean Segura
    22. Danny Salazar
    23. Anthony Rizzo
    24. Trevor Rosenthal
    25. Jurickson Profar

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    I don't get why Harper is #2. At this point in his career in relation to many others on this list, he's been the inferior player. I think at the very least, Fernandez and Stanton should rank higher than him, IMO.

    I also think Teheran should be a bit higher than that. Otherwise, not too bad.

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    Well, the list is based on who he would want to start a franchise with, not just expected 2014 numbers... Harper is clearly still very valuable in terms oof long term potential. Youngest player in MLB and is still pretty darn good

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    Alex Wood needs to be in the consideration. What he has done since getting a call up to the major leagues is amazing.
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    Forgot Kimbrel is already 25, otherwise he should've definitely been on this list.

    I think Andrelton's potential is through the roof, it's just more questionable he'd reach it offensively compared to Harper and Trout.

    Alex Wood definitely deserves to be on here, kid has been a stud.
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    Quote Originally Posted by sturg33 View Post
    Well, the list is based on who he would want to start a franchise with, not just expected 2014 numbers... Harper is clearly still very valuable in terms oof long term potential. Youngest player in MLB and is still pretty darn good
    That does make sense, of course. But when people say the BEST players under 25, it makes me think of the players in that age cutoff that are really good right now. If I'm playing MLB the Show, though, obviously this list makes sense. I have no doubts Harper will mature and be a perennial MVP candidate, he just hasn't shown much of it outside of his rookie year.

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    Wood has underrated by the various outfits who rate prospects and young major leaguers. To me it is a toss up between Wood and Teheran as to who is going to be better. Wood's discovery of the knuckle curve last spring really changed what kind of pitcher he is. Not a lot of people have caught on to that, partly because he had to ditch it part of last year due to blisters.

    Impressive that we have 4 on that list, the Marlins have 3, and everyone else has fewer, including quite a few teams with zero.
    Last edited by nsacpi; 04-24-2014 at 12:39 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    Wood has underrated by the various outfits who rate prospects and young major leaguers. To me it is a toss up between Wood and Teheran as to who is going to be better. Wood's discovery of the knuckle curve last spring really changed what kind of pitcher he is. Not a lot of people have caught on to that, partly because he had to ditch it part of last year due to blisters.

    Impressive that we have 4 on that list, the Marlins have 3, and everyone else has fewer, including quite a few teams with zero.
    Yeah, I don't get how people are overlooking him. It doesn't make any sense. Since being drafted he has dominated. He posted a sub 3 FIP in hte minors as well as the major leagues. Just incredible. Its also not just his deceptive delivery although that does play into it.
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    With regards to Wood, there's not that many pitchers on the list (nor should there be). They are such a huge injury risk, it's tough to rank them long term over position players.

    With that in mind, I think it's fair that Wood isn't there

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    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    Yeah, I don't get how people are overlooking him. It doesn't make any sense. Since being drafted he has dominated. He posted a sub 3 FIP in hte minors as well as the major leagues. Just incredible. Its also not just his deceptive delivery although that does play into it.
    Klaw sees Wood as a reliever. Says he already blew out once and will do it again. Says that delivery means he'll be a reliever or blow out...Not sure I agree but that is it.

    4 in the top 25 is really impressive. 3/4 locked up until 30 is great.

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    4 of the top 15, actually

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    Quote Originally Posted by Russ2dollas View Post
    Klaw sees Wood as a reliever. Says he already blew out once and will do it again. Says that delivery means he'll be a reliever or blow out...Not sure I agree but that is it.

    4 in the top 25 is really impressive. 3/4 locked up until 30 is great.
    Well, I guess thats comforting since Law has been 100% spot on in the past about the Braves.
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    By that logic of "his delivery will make him blow out" (not saying I'm agreeing with that, either), then wouldn't it make sense to get maximum value out of his arm while he's good? I mean, he's clearly shown he has the skills to not only a good starter, but a dominant starter.

    He's a great pitcher, his name is awesome for innuendos. He's a Georgia boy. What else do you want, really?

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    Marlins are the team of the future, I guess. Very surprised to see Yelich on there, corner OF'r with no power. No Harvey, no Strasburg; are they too old?

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    Quote Originally Posted by stpeteirish View Post
    Marlins are the team of the future, I guess. Very surprised to see Yelich on there, corner OF'r with no power. No Harvey, no Strasburg; are they too old?
    I fear the Marlins somewhat. Not this year but 2015 and maybe 2016 if they hold on to Stanton. Beyond that a lot depends on how things play out with Stanton. They have the pitching to dominate a short series.

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    1. Mike Trout
    2. Bryce Harper
    3. Jose Fernandez
    4. Andrelton Simmons

    That makes me so damn giddy. Andrelton is a beast and will only get better.

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    Puig should be higher too. He's still got some maturing to do, but he was the catalyst for igniting the Dodgers last season. Heyward's yet to do that with ATL.

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    After watching Hernandez absolutely chew through the Braves lineup a few nights ago, I am convinced he belongs no lower than #2 on that list.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Knucksie View Post
    Puig should be higher too. He's still got some maturing to do, but he was the catalyst for igniting the Dodgers last season. Heyward's yet to do that with ATL.
    So you don't think Heyward ignited the offense last season when he was moved to leadoff? Also as the leadoff hitter our record is pretty good over the last two seasons...
    All you need is Hart and Cox.

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    Quote Originally Posted by BremanFan88 View Post
    So you don't think Heyward ignited the offense last season when he was moved to leadoff? Also as the leadoff hitter our record is pretty good over the last two seasons...
    Thought that my statement explained it Anyway, the Dodgers were overpaid and disorganized. Puig practically single-handedly changed that. When healthy, Heyward found a new home in the leadoff spot. As for last 2 seasons, the jury is still out on this season. He's still under the Mendoza Line.

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