76-79 wins is what I will say at this point. 2.5 position players just doesn't cut it. Can't win win 2, maybe 3 guys that are 2+ WAR types.
76-79 wins is what I will say at this point. 2.5 position players just doesn't cut it. Can't win win 2, maybe 3 guys that are 2+ WAR types.
"Yes, I did think Aldrich was good UNTIL I SAW HIM PLAY. "- thethe
Thanks for your explanations. My question about throwing stuff up against the wall was really asking if you made your predictions as a lark without much thought, but your explanation was sufficient to clear up things for me. I am thinking you're unnecessarily pessimistic on Albies, but I don't expect him to hit .300 out of the gate, either. Hope the fears for JT are unfounded, but we won't know till we know.
I won't pretend to guess the record. I'll say we'll be the Marlins who will play meaningful baseball, but come up short of the 2nd Wild Card.
Rotation
Folty busts out with injury is replaced with Wisler and we talk about why we did not trade him when we could this offseason.
Jaime is traded in July and replaced Newcomb
We decide to keep Colon and play up his quest for Juan Marichal's record in hopes to bring fans out and get exposure in the D.R. We'll even live stream his games in the D.R. for free..or something along those lines.
Julio has another good season.
Pen
Arodys and Kroll are traded in May or June and replaced with Minter and Dirks.
Mauricio struggles and gets sent back down to cut down on the walks or is sold high before then.
Jose Ramirez proves to be a stud we're happy to have found and steals some saves away from Jim Johnson
Weigel comes out of the pen in ATL for a while when we think we're in it to keep his innings down after not pitching many innings in College, as we prepare to introduce him in to the rotation in 2018.
Outfield
Ender has a solid year, but misses some time with an injury he gets being Ender. Mallex plays well in his place causing us to rethink his role when Ender returns.
We decide to trade Markakis back to Baltimore for some arms we know nothing about that our new coaches suggest us acquiring to make room for Ender when he returns from injury and keep Mallex in CF.
We talk about trading Kemp in July, but decide to hold on to him due to lack of power and some fans get pi$$ed we didn't.
Infield
Freeman proves last year was not a fluke and gets his 3rd top 10 MVP season.
Sean Rodriguez becomes a fan favorite and takes over at 3B full time when Albies comes up.
Adonis is traded to an AL team.
Swanson goes through some rough patches, but still makes the play or steals the base at the right time where he develops the "clutch" trait causes 26 pages about his quantifiable value.
Albies comes up and provides a spark. He plays some SS when Jace is playing well and Swanson is not and a debate rages on if he should be the full time SS for a week or two.
Catcher
Catcher is a mess. Tuffy and Freitas both get some action with the big league club. Freitas plays the best out of everyone and we talk about keeping him.
Last edited by Chico; 01-03-2017 at 04:18 PM.
I know this sounds bad, but I hope the vet pitchers don't do "just" well enough that we...
1. Don't trade any of them even if some of our young guys are ready.
2. Maybe even make a few trades at the deadline (giving away some good players), in the effort to make the playoffs...when we really would have no realistic chance to win a championship.
I think low end 70, but this team could realistically win 80+ with some luck.
I will be the first to say that projecting prospects to the majors is futile. I try and keep a few things in mind when projecting prospects rookie performance. The playing surfaces are not MLB quality in the minors. Many if the defenders are terrible by MLB standards. This helps a prospect like Albies the most. There are a lot of groundballs he hit that went for hits that gold glove infielders are going to turn into outs. I do generally expect a power increase when they hit the majors. I think a lot of our minor league parks are tough to Homer in.
What I think is going to cause Albies to struggle at first is that pitchers are going to go right after him because he has little power. He will still get his fair share of walks because some pitchers can't throw strikes and because he will get deeper into counts as he fouls off more pitches. That's how it generally works with contact hitters.
"Donald Trump will serve a second term as president of the United States.
It’s over."
Little Thethe Nov 19, 2020.
Hopefully, we can get between 80-85 wins. Realistically, 75-80.
Here is how I get to my expected total of 80 wins. Projections are mine:
Replacement level: 48
Plus bench and pen (5): 53
Teheran(3.5): 56.5
Folty (2): 58.5
Garcia (2): 60.5
Dickey (2): 62.5
Colon (1.5): 64
First (5): 69
Second (1): 70
Short (1.5): 71.5
Third (1): 72.5
Right (1.5): 74
Left (1.5): 75.5
Center (3.5): 79
Catcher (1): 80
This is the baseline. I like having a pitcher of Wisler's quality a phone call away in AAA. I assume Albies will be called up around mid-season to shore up the infield. As I mentioned in my prior post in this thread, if Lady Luck is on our side this season we will be in the wild card hunt to the very end.
Last edited by nsacpi; 01-07-2017 at 12:14 PM.
69 wins. Continued steady improvement.
Eff it...I'm up to a 98 win total prediction!
Natural Immunity Croc
JohnAdcox (01-10-2017)
JohnAdcox (01-10-2017)
April:
3@Mets: 0-3
3@Pirates: 1-2
2@Marlins: 1-1
4 Padres: 3-1
3 Gnats: 1-2
3@ Phillies: 1-2
3@Mets: 1-2
3@Brewers: 2-1
Record after April: 10-14
May
4 Mets: 2-2
3 Cards: 1-2
2@Stros: 0-2
3@Marlins: 1-2
2@BlueJays: 1-1
2 BlueJays: 1-1
3 Gnats: 1-2
4 Pirates: 2-2
3@ Giants: 0-3
3@ Angels: 2-1
May Record: 11-18
YTD Record: 21-32
June
3@Reds: 3-0
4 Phillies: 2-2
3 Mets: 2-1
3@Gnats: 1-2
3 Marlins: 2-1
4 Giants: 2-2
3 Brewers: 3-0
3@ Padres: 2-1
1@ A's: 0-1
June Record: 17-10
YTD Record: 38-42
July
1@A's: 1-0
2 Astros: 0-2
4@Gnats: 1-3
All Star
3 D'Backs: 1-2
3 Cubs: 0-3
4@Dodgers:1-3
3@D'Backs:1-2
4@Phillies:1-3
July Record: 6-18
Record at All Star Break: 40-47
YTD Record: 44-60 (Horrible July)
Coaching Staff Fired
Attendance drops to ~15,000 per game
August
3 Dodgers: 2-1
3 Marlins: 2-1
2 Phillies: 2-0
3@Cards: 1-2
4@Rockies:1-3
3 Reds: 3-0
3 Mariners: 1-2
3 Rockies: 2-1
3@Phillies: 1-2
1@Cubs: 0-1
August Record: 15-13
YTD Record: 55-73
September
3@Cubs: 1-2
3 Rangers: 1-2
4 Marlins: 3-1
3@Gnats: 1-2
3 Mets: 2-1
3 Gnats: 2-1
3 Phillies: 2-1
3@Mets: 1-2
3@Marlins: 2-1
September Record: 15-13
YTD Record: 70-86
October
1@Marlins: 1-0
Working off MLB Schedule, something obviously wrong since doesn't add up to 162. I'll give the Braves the benefit of the doubt on the missing 5 games and go with a final record of:
76-86
Attendance starts strong, then settles in at about 15-20,000 per night as the front office finds out that the illusion of a competitive team only brings in the illusion of fans in seats.
Colon and Dickey both crash and burn as age catches up.
Garcia pitches well but is hurt a good bit and traded at the deadline.
Folty works his way into the 3.5 era range.
So does Teheran.
Johnson regresses and loses the closer role.
Kemp shows up in shape, and pulls a muscle (an under-rated fact is that you can't pull fat)
3B is a black hole, as is catcher.
Albies is brought up in August after the Braves are out and have traded SRod and Peterson.
Inciarte, Freeman and Swanson are pretty much the only offense.
Attendance will be interesting to watch. A benchmark to consider is the Pirates move to PNC Park in 2001.
2000 21,591 per game 69-93 record
2001 30,834 62-100
2002 23,148 72-89
2016 Braves attendance 24,949 68-93
2017 I would predict 40,000 with a team that wins 80-85 games
2018 I think will be down to the 35,000-38,000 range with a team slightly above .500
I think your '17 number is optimistic. 32-35k is possible.
Braves fans have historically packed the stadium on weekends and gotten about 17,000 weeknights. Now, a goodly portion of that poor in-week attendance was having a no-fun park area and dangerous neighborhood of Summerhill, and I've seen the maps showing where Braves season ticket holders live, but the new location will still be a huge challenge. The city emanates 40 miles from the center in virtually every direction. They're still going to struggle weeknights. From my former hood up in Gwinnett, and even from North Fulton and Forsyth, a Cobb stadium - especially one with difficult entrance and egress - does almost no good.
I took it from MLB website. BUT, the numbers don't add up to 162. They've got something wrong or I do and can't figure out what I am missing.
I came up 5 games short and gave all those as wins to the Braves for my projection.
Just at a quick glance, you are missing one game from the Oakland Series. It is a 3 game series.