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Thread: How do the Braves find bats for 2017 and beyond?

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    Quote Originally Posted by dak View Post
    The Bourn-Swisher-Johnson trade has some negative impact for 2016, but in my view it's minimal. The net salary impact across 2016-2017 is ~$4m. Also, the presence of Swisher should foreclose the possibility of picking up the Gomes option ($3m), and the presence of Bourn increases the likelihood of a Maybin trade (owed $9m after 2015).
    I view Swish like a Gomes/AJ signing off last offseason. He's the vet presence bench bat who could get hot for a stretch or two. I don't think it impedes us from getting another OF.

  2. #142
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    Quote Originally Posted by KB21 View Post
    I just completely disagree with the idea that you get your bats by trading away top notch, young pitchers who have a controllable salary. It's the reason I did not like the Alex Wood trade, and since that trade, we have noticed some struggles with our younger pitchers that we are now relying upon to get wins. You say that you trade them and just replace them with a free agent pitcher. OK. So, you are trading a pitcher who is 24 years of age and has controlled years left on his contract, and you are signing someone in the 29-31 age range for MUCH more money. That increase in age comes with an increased risk of injury and more potential for a decline in effectiveness.

    I believe you can get the bats needed without having to give up Teheran or Miller in a deal. This is why you build up a surplus of pitching prospects in the system. Pitching is always a valued commodity, and teams will trade for young pitching all the time.
    Yes, a guy like Price and/or Samardzija would be more expensive. But not necessarily more injury prone. An argument can be made that they have shown over time that they are durable and NOT injury prone. Does that mean they will never be injured? Of course not. But they have a track record of health.

    They also have a track record of good pitching, especially Price. Now, Samardzija (who I include as a representative of several similar pitchers like Zimmerman, etc.) you are paying less in terms of money and years because their historical production has been less, but you also are hoping for upside. Price is what he is, a proven ACE.

    Miller and Teheran both have a short track record of both excellence and mediocrity and their limited historical record really says nothing at this point about long term health (except that their deliveries appear to be more conducive to healthy that say a delivery like Wood or Hanson). Could Miller become the next Greinke? Maybe. Almost certainly not since the odds of that type talent revealing itself are so poor, but maybe. Could he become the next Hanson? Again, maybe. I don't think so because his delivery and stuff are both better, but maybe.

    The same can be said for Teheran. The difference for Teheran is that he is on such a team friendly contract whereas Miller will get very expensive very fast through arbitration and eventual FA should he stay on his current course.

    As for the viability of trading pitching prospects, especially prospects who are second tier because you would expect the Braves to have designs on keeping the first tier for internal use, I guess we will see. I suspect that it will be "welcome to 20 years ago." I think the cycle has changed where the relative nature of pitching as compared to the availability of quality hitting has changed.

    To win the game, a team must outscore the opponent. Now, good pitching and defense LIMIT the number of runs needed but don't actually score any runs on their own. You have to hit your way around the bases. The old Snyder philosophy of focusing on pitching and not worrying about hitting was perfect for an era where bats were a dime a dozen and pitching was scarce. But, now the cycle has changed.

    Bottom line is that ALL phases should be accounted for when planning for a successful team. The fact that the Braves only have one WS win to show for their dominant run of the 90's and early 2000's is at least partly the result of a philosophy too one-sided concerned with pitching as opposed to hitting.

  3. #143
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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    The Blue Jays blueprint is one worth looking at. The common element of the Donaldson, Tulowitski and Price trades was a willingness to act boldly and opportunistically.
    Certainly. However, the Price trade was probably a short term go for it now swing for the fences. The other two were targets of opportunity based upon having pieces to trade and payroll space.

    But in Tulo at least they are taking on a contract that very likely will have some bad years at the end (and maybe before that).

    The Donaldson trade was about as good as has been done in several years.
    Last edited by Horsehide Harry; 08-16-2015 at 12:48 PM.

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    I can't find the source, but I read a quote from Coppollela last week that said high price FA pitchers were not the way to build this team (paraphrasing). Anyone else see that?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Diesel View Post
    I can't find the source, but I read a quote from Coppollela last week that said high price FA pitchers were not the way to build this team (paraphrasing). Anyone else see that?
    I could see them taking that route and signing the pitching equivalent of Markakis, someone reliable but nothing special.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Diesel View Post
    I can't find the source, but I read a quote from Coppollela last week that said high price FA pitchers were not the way to build this team (paraphrasing). Anyone else see that?
    That's in line with what Hart said previously about the big-name free agent hitters, so would make sense. I'm glad to hear it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Diesel View Post
    I can't find the source, but I read a quote from Coppollela last week that said high price FA pitchers were not the way to build this team (paraphrasing). Anyone else see that?
    http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/13...espnapi_public

    Here's the quote from Coppy: "We see Max Scherzer getting $210 million on the free-agent market," Coppolella said. "We believe free-agent pitching is one of the most inefficient uses of money, and we know how volatile pitching is in every sense of the word, so our goal was to load up on a quantity of quality and try to build our organization for long-lasting success. Nobody knows whether all of these pitchers will have major league success, or even if they will stay healthy, but we do know that they offered us the most upside of any other potential acquisitions."

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    So the whole kicking the tires thing on Lester was for show?

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    So the whole kicking the tires thing on Lester was for show?
    It was a big Mukaki, er, Kabuki show.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    So the whole kicking the tires thing on Lester was for show?
    No, he was just the right player at the wrong time. Maybe Price can be the right player at the wrong time this off-season. :)

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    Quote Originally Posted by Cormier's Spring View Post
    http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/13...espnapi_public

    Here's the quote from Coppy: "We see Max Scherzer getting $210 million on the free-agent market," Coppolella said. "We believe free-agent pitching is one of the most inefficient uses of money, and we know how volatile pitching is in every sense of the word, so our goal was to load up on a quantity of quality and try to build our organization for long-lasting success. Nobody knows whether all of these pitchers will have major league success, or even if they will stay healthy, but we do know that they offered us the most upside of any other potential acquisitions."
    Thanks for the link and quote. I found this quote from the article also interesting and similar to the concern I have now.

    "I really do like the strategy, and I think they're doing the right thing," said a National League executive. But he wonders if the pitchers lined up behind Miller could turn out to be a "bunch of No. 4 starters or bullpen guys."

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    So the whole kicking the tires thing on Lester was for show?
    Yeah, there seems to be quite a bit of talking out of both sides of your mouth going on with our FO this past year. If we aren't going to spend on FA hitting, and we aren't going to spend on FA pitching, then what the heck are we going to spend all this cash on?

    They are dumping every player with a contract beyond 2016 outside of Freddie and Simba it seems, and the 2017 FA market kinda sucks. If we don't go after anyone this offseason and wind up trading Julio then I'll be kinda baffled as to what the hell our plan is at all for the short term.

    Because if we move Julio this offseason and don't replace him with a serious FA pitcher then next season is going to be ugly too. Which would be an awkward way to move into the new stadium, trading away almost all of the popular players and having a big time losing team.

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    Quote Originally Posted by auyushu View Post
    Yeah, there seems to be quite a bit of talking out of both sides of your mouth going on with our FO this past year. If we aren't going to spend on FA hitting, and we aren't going to spend on FA pitching, then what the heck are we going to spend all this cash on?

    They are dumping every player with a contract beyond 2016 outside of Freddie and Simba it seems, and the 2017 FA market kinda sucks. If we don't go after anyone this offseason and wind up trading Julio then I'll be kinda baffled as to what the hell our plan is at all for the short term.

    Because if we move Julio this offseason and don't replace him with a serious FA pitcher then next season is going to be ugly too. Which would be an awkward way to move into the new stadium, trading away almost all of the popular players and having a big time losing team.
    Well there is one angle that would resolve all of these seeming inconsistencies. And this would involve trading for guys under contract. We did this with the Olivia trade. And again with the Bourn/Swisher trade. It is not a bad approach. But I also think there will be some bargains in this off-season's FA market for starting pitching. For teams willing to be patient.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Braves1976 View Post
    Thanks for the link and quote. I found this quote from the article also interesting and similar to the concern I have now.

    "I really do like the strategy, and I think they're doing the right thing," said a National League executive. But he wonders if the pitchers lined up behind Miller could turn out to be a "bunch of No. 4 starters or bullpen guys."
    That pretty much sums up my feelings on things. I feel confident at least one of the guys we have in the upper levels and the majors will turn into a decent #3 starter, and I'm confident we'll be able to get a good #4 and #5 starter out of the rest. But I don't see anyone in the upper levels that is going to be a #1/#2 starter type to pair with Miller. Sims and Toussaint have the talent, but not the control, and the rest don't have elite level talent (outside of maybe Fried, but he's realistically about as far away as Allard given the injury).

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    Quote Originally Posted by auyushu View Post
    That pretty much sums up my feelings on things. I feel confident at least one of the guys we have in the upper levels and the majors will turn into a decent #3 starter, and I'm confident we'll be able to get a good #4 and #5 starter out of the rest. But I don't see anyone in the upper levels that is going to be a #1/#2 starter type to pair with Miller. Sims and Toussaint have the talent, but not the control, and the rest don't have elite level talent (outside of maybe Fried, but he's realistically about as far away as Allard given the injury).
    I'm a bit higher than most on Wisler. I do think, however, that we should dip into this off-season's FA market for a starting pitcher.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    But I also think there will be some bargains in this off-season's FA market for starting pitching. For teams willing to be patient.
    Yep, I think we could get a reasonable deal on someone like Kazmir if we swooped in at the right time.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    Well there is one angle that would resolve all of these seeming inconsistencies. And this would involve trading for guys under contract. We did this with the Olivia trade. And again with the Bourn/Swisher trade. It is not a bad approach. But I also think there will be some bargains in this off-season's FA market for starting pitching. For teams willing to be patient.
    It is when you have to overpay in such trades like we did for Olivera. Plus the Bourn-Swisher for CJ deal was mainly about moving money around for 2017. As I started to say in response to auyushu's post: They learned the hard way about getting a bat by going almost totally after pitching in trades. Then overreacted in desperation with the Olivera trade. Now I guess they'll do it again in another direction and later overreact paying more for that mistake too. I hope I am wrong about that though.

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    Quote Originally Posted by auyushu View Post
    Yep, I think we could get a reasonable deal on someone like Kazmir if we swooped in at the right time.
    Yea, I am interested in Kazmir myself as he shouldn't cost as much as someone like Price but would be a solid addition if the years and price works.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Braves1976 View Post
    Yea, I am interested in Kazmir myself as he shouldn't cost as much as someone like Price but would be a solid addition if the years and price works.
    Yeah, a 4 year deal to Kazmir could bridge the gap nicely till Allard is ready in late 2018 or in 2019. And if we extend Miller Kazmir's contract would be expiring right after Miller's kicks in, freeing up money for other needs.

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    Quote Originally Posted by auyushu View Post
    Yeah, a 4 year deal to Kazmir could bridge the gap nicely till Allard is ready in late 2018 or in 2019. And if we extend Miller Kazmir's contract would be expiring right after Miller's kicks in, freeing up money for other needs.
    Exactly. We should at the very least add someone like Kazmir IMO. If not I could certainly see us ending up overpaying again later to fill a hole in the rotation.

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