Which is why we probably need to prepare for a far less exciting return than we seem to be expecting. Other teams are able to see the same peripherals we're concerned with, yet we all seem to think we're going to land a top 10 prospect or a 6 win OF and that any less would be a disaster.Originally Posted by zbhargrove
http://www.cubsgeek.com/jorge-soler-2016-all-star/
Found this interesting. Love the exit velocity stuff.
Lining up to pay someone for the end of his 30's whose defensive declined dramatically in 2015 and is likely a sign of things to come? If Zobrist was 5 years younger then you would be absolutely right. If Zobrist gets any more than the 60/4 that was rumored it will be based on what he has done and not what he will do. But those types of contracts have been handed out for years.
I don't think so... there are tons of teams that aren't really into the whole sabermetrics thing yet... with his pedigree and past prospect status plus his success last year... someone will pay a pretty penny. He is definitely the most attractive candidate in FA or by trade left after Greinke signs.
Also we need to learn just from the Braves moves over the past 6 months about the pitching trade market right now. Look at what we got for Wood. Look at the comments after the Simmons trade that nobody wants to trade young hitters. Teams just aren't willing to give up young hitters who are already in MLB or top hitting prospects that are almost MLB ready unless there is a massive overpay.
Don't you think all the other teams look at this peripherals too. Sure there's a chance he could get hurt but there's also chance he could actually improve his peripherals, especially his BB rate.
The problem isn't Shelby's value, it's that there are a lot of pitchers available right now.
thank you weso1!
You have to look at these deals in terms of $/Expected WAR rather than $/past WAR. Of course everyone is entitled to their expectation, but I think there is a generally understood aging curve that can be used to make the projections.
Over the next four seasons, I'd expect Zobrist to generate 10 WAR or 2.5 per season. At a going rate of about 8M/WAR, the market price for him should be around 20M/year. I'd be interested in him at 15-16M year on a four year deal.
There's a lot of available pitchers, but with his contract situation, he's probably the most valuable... that's the thing. And again... there are still organizations out there that don't really use sabermetrics in their evaluations.
Like the Braves which is why they thought they could get Pollock for him.
I'm not sure what the definition of most valuable might be. If you mean surplus value (expected production minus salary) then Miller has a significant amount of surplus value. But that accrues to the team having contractual control over him (the Braves) not the team trading for him. Any team considering acquiring him will be well aware that the Braves are going to extract all of that surplus value from them.
over thinking this. there is some analytics involved for certain. But you also need to ask yourself as a GM, is Player X going to help me win this year more than player y and player z.. of course you won't trade a 10 value (arbitrary 1-10 scale) player for a 5 value player just to win one year.. but you could see a team trading an 8 value player for a 6 value player because the 6 value player is what you need right now to win. there is so much more to this than .. player x value compared to player y's value..
You tell us - you're the one who keeps spouting $$$/WAR every time someone mentions a player.
Has there EVER been a statement and question a certain someone should absolutely never have made and asked publicly more than...
Kinda pathetic to see yourself as a message board knight in shining armor. How impotent does someone have to be in real life to resort to playing hero on a message board?
Just to put things into a little bit of perspective, regarding fans and how they value their teams players. I live in the Midwest and have a ton of Cub fans for friends. Them and the writers they keep quoting to me, think that they should get more than just Miller for either Soler or Baez.
If someone signs Zobrist for 60/4 they shouldn't be expecting some kind of major discount for the production he will provide those years. The days of him being a 5+ WAR player are likely over.
I would tend to agree. This is a hitter defecient market. Hitters are inherently more valuable right now so shouldn't be able to swap a hitter and pitcher 1 for 1 if the players are perceived to bring similar production.
Difference here is that most of Soler's value is in potential. Right now he's an okay hitter and a terrible fielder. He's got to improve with his bat to have value. Miller is already a very good pitcher.
I'm high on Soler. I think he could be exactly the kind of middle of the order power bat we need. If it was a 1 for 1 trade I wouldn't be dancing but I'd understand the price of hitting.
Well that is were projections come into play. If the Cubs see Soler being equaly productive as Miller going forward then they are going to want more.
I'm not so sure I buy that. Case in point: the most recent Kimbrel trade. The Padres got a pretty sweet haul for Kimbrel, and it included a top 15ish hitting prospect in Margot.
This front office just can't seem to play their hand correctly and score position players.
I think that the number of teams that don't at least have a passing knowledge of performance indicators are minuscule at this point if not zero.
There are some counterexamples like the Kimbrel trade, but I think pitching is relatively abundant and hitting relatively scarce at the moment. We'll get some additional info when guys like Upton, Heyward and Cespedes sign. Last off-season the hitters were getting about 1M more per projected win than the free agent pitchers. I'm expecting more of the same this year.
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