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Thread: - STARTS TODAY AT 7PM - 2016 June Amateur Draft Discussion

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    Quote Originally Posted by Oklahomabrave View Post
    Not sure if he has been mentioned, but I hope we look at Logan Ice for one of our top picks.
    The Braves absolutely need to add a couple college catchers since it is a very weak position in the organization. If they are trying to sign a guy under slot at 44 to save cash to pay someone over slot at 40, a college catcher would be an excellent choice at that pick.

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    The great thing about Ice is that we can break him down into two different players later, should we need to.

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    Quote Originally Posted by MadduxFanII View Post
    The great thing about Ice is that we can break him down into two different players later, should we need to.
    I think the other players would pick on him. Plus, he'd probably melt in the Atlanta summer heat.

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    Quote Originally Posted by 50PoundHead View Post
    That would be cool. Get it? Ice. Cool. Oh, never mind.

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    Quote Originally Posted by 50PoundHead View Post
    I think the other players would pick on him. Plus, he'd probably melt in the Atlanta summer heat.
    you might slip up if you are thinking of taking Ice at #3.. but then again, he could be a diamond in the rough..

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    I stated at least 5 times in my posts that it was just an interesting scenario based on past actions of teams like the Astros. Obviously nobody on these boards knows what the Braves plan is, so it goes without saying.

    But by all means, go ahead and post another Strasburg to Atlanta "idea" rather than tossing around original ideas that actually have a greater than 0% chance of happening.
    No problem. Just as you have none when you act like you know something someone else doesn't.
    Has there EVER been a statement and question a certain someone should absolutely never have made and asked publicly more than...

    Kinda pathetic to see yourself as a message board knight in shining armor. How impotent does someone have to be in real life to resort to playing hero on a message board?

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    I have admittedly not been a big fan of drafting college players high, but after looking at the college hitters that have gone in the top 10 since 2013, I may have to change my stance.

    2013:

    #2 Kris Bryant, Cubs (Major League -- .273/.365/.481, 28 HR, 615 MLB At Bats)
    #6 Colin Moran, Astros (AAA -- .342/.395/.474)
    #8 Hunter Dozier, Royals (AA -- .316/.435/.711, 4 HR, 38 AB)

    2014:
    #4 Kyle Schwarber, Cubs (Major League -- .242/.353/.479, 16 HR, 236 at bats)
    #10 Michael Conforto, Mets (Major League -- .278/.351/.524, 11 HR, 212 at bats)

    2015:
    #1 Dansby Swanson, Braves (A+ -- .358/.433/.509, 53 AB)
    #2 Alex Bregman, Astros (AA -- .395/.480/.767, 5 HR, 43 AB)
    #7 Andre Benintendi, Red Sox (A+ -- .327/.390/.635, 4 2B, 6 3B, 52 AB)
    #9 Ian Happ, Cubs (A+ -- .294/.390/.510, 2 HR, 51 AB)

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    Quote Originally Posted by KB21 View Post
    I have admittedly not been a big fan of drafting college players high, but after looking at the college hitters that have gone in the top 10 since 2013, I may have to change my stance.

    2013:

    #2 Kris Bryant, Cubs (Major League -- .273/.365/.481, 28 HR, 615 MLB At Bats)
    #6 Colin Moran, Astros (AAA -- .342/.395/.474)
    #8 Hunter Dozier, Royals (AA -- .316/.435/.711, 4 HR, 38 AB)

    2014:
    #4 Kyle Schwarber, Cubs (Major League -- .242/.353/.479, 16 HR, 236 at bats)
    #10 Michael Conforto, Mets (Major League -- .278/.351/.524, 11 HR, 212 at bats)

    2015:
    #1 Dansby Swanson, Braves (A+ -- .358/.433/.509, 53 AB)
    #2 Alex Bregman, Astros (AA -- .395/.480/.767, 5 HR, 43 AB)
    #7 Andre Benintendi, Red Sox (A+ -- .327/.390/.635, 4 2B, 6 3B, 52 AB)
    #9 Ian Happ, Cubs (A+ -- .294/.390/.510, 2 HR, 51 AB)
    Just to take the data back a few years, here are college hitters taken in the top 10:

    2012: Zunino #3
    2011: Rendon #6
    2010: Christian Colon #4, Michael Choice #10
    2009: Ackley #2, Tony Sanchez #4
    2008: Pedro Alvarez #2, Posey #5, Yonder Alonso #7, Gordon Beckham #8, Jason Castro #10

    Looking at the guys taken very high, there is some risk among college hitters. But there is risk with other groups: college pitchers, HS hitters, HS pitchers. If you make a similar list for those groups, there would be a significant number of busts.

    Some notable busts in recent drafts taken in the top 5:

    Dustin Ackley-C hitter
    Donovan Tate--HS hitter
    Tony Sanches-C hitter
    Matt Hobgood--HS pitcher
    Christian Colon-C hitter
    Danny Hultzen-C pitcher
    Dylan Bundy-HS pitcher
    Bubba Starling-HS hitter

    This is just from the list of top 5 picks from 2009-2011. Some were derailed by injuries, but that is part of the risk with prospects. A #3 pick is not guaranteed to be successful and at the very high end of the draft the risk among different classes of players appears to be similar. This is why I shake my head when I see preferences for a particular type of player. We need to pick the guy we think is the best with lots of weight given to that player's ceiling. Period. Full stop. The drafting game is hard enough without giving preference to a particular class of player.

    Now in later points of the draft, the yield does seem to differ quite a bit by class of player. For example, in what I call the middle rounds (4-10), college pitchers appear to be significantly better bets than other groups.
    Last edited by nsacpi; 04-20-2016 at 12:09 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by clvclv View Post
    No problem. Just as you have none when you act like you know something someone else doesn't.
    Except I do know the Braves have never given out a FA contract over $75m. I also know there is a precedent set by the Astros for the draft strategy I suggested.

    My draft idea is based on drawing logical conclusions from known data. Your Strasburg signing idea is based on unrealistic homerism. Big difference.
    Last edited by Enscheff; 04-20-2016 at 12:14 PM.

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    Good analysis KB21 and nsacpi.

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    Quote Originally Posted by 50PoundHead View Post
    Good analysis KB21 and nsacpi.
    Thanks. The next question is whether the top college bats available this year are as good as those bats.

    Kris Bryant -- In three years in college, he hit .353/.486/.702 with 54 home runs.
    Colin Moran -- In three years in college, he hit .346/.452/.531 with 25 home runs.
    Hunter Dozier -- 3 years; .357/.428/.608, 32 home runs
    Schwarber -- .341/.437/.607, 40 home runs
    Conforto -- .340/.463/.557, 31 home runs
    Swanson -- .330/.418/.541, 18 home runs
    Bregman -- .337/.409/.514, 21 home runs
    Benintendi -- .326/.431/.525, 21 home runs
    Happ -- .338/.463/.532, 25 home runs

    Kyle Lewis is hitting .369/.456/.668 with 32 home runs already in his career.
    Cory Ray is hitting .327/.396/.562 with 23 home runs in his career.
    Nick Senzel is hitting .329/.428/.494 with 10 home runs in his career.

    It should be noted that Senzel's ISO has gone from .105 as a true freshman to .170 as a sophomore to .241 as a junior, so he has shown steady improvement in his extra base ability.

    Kyle Lewis ISO has gone from .101 as a freshman to .310 as a sophomore and a ridiculous .407 as a junior.

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    Just one thing to note is that Lewis plays in the EASIEST college league, so his stats are definitely going to be skewed and "bloated" due to easy competition.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bravescountry View Post
    Just one thing to note is that Lewis plays in the EASIEST college league, so his stats are definitely going to be skewed and "bloated" due to easy competition.
    Meh.
    Ivermectin Man

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    Quote Originally Posted by bravescountry View Post
    Just one thing to note is that Lewis plays in the EASIEST college league, so his stats are definitely going to be skewed and "bloated" due to easy competition.

    So did Bryant

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    Quote Originally Posted by KB21 View Post
    I have admittedly not been a big fan of drafting college players high, but after looking at the college hitters that have gone in the top 10 since 2013, I may have to change my stance.

    2013:

    #2 Kris Bryant, Cubs (Major League -- .273/.365/.481, 28 HR, 615 MLB At Bats)
    #6 Colin Moran, Astros (AAA -- .342/.395/.474)
    #8 Hunter Dozier, Royals (AA -- .316/.435/.711, 4 HR, 38 AB)

    2014:
    #4 Kyle Schwarber, Cubs (Major League -- .242/.353/.479, 16 HR, 236 at bats)
    #10 Michael Conforto, Mets (Major League -- .278/.351/.524, 11 HR, 212 at bats)

    2015:
    #1 Dansby Swanson, Braves (A+ -- .358/.433/.509, 53 AB)
    #2 Alex Bregman, Astros (AA -- .395/.480/.767, 5 HR, 43 AB)
    #7 Andre Benintendi, Red Sox (A+ -- .327/.390/.635, 4 2B, 6 3B, 52 AB)
    #9 Ian Happ, Cubs (A+ -- .294/.390/.510, 2 HR, 51 AB)
    This is what I've been trying to say. At the very top of the draft, you usually have a few college players that are both surer things than the HS guys and also have ceilings just as high. If there is a legit college player at the top of the draft, they are usually better options than HS guys.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bravesfanMatt View Post
    So did Bryant
    This. There's no doubt that it's something to consider for Lewis and that it represents a risk (and Max Pentecost failing to light the world on fire in short-season A-ball as a 21-year-old doesn't create a lot of confidence), but it also doesn't necessarily mean anything.

    It's just about impossible to hit better than Lewis has so far in that league. So he's doing what an elite talent should do there. And again, he's getting much better at an extremely rapid pace. I don't mind if the Braves don't take him, but he's still who I'd prefer.

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    Dozier played in the Southland Conference and I don't think the competition there is any better than in the Southern Conference. Bryant's conference was nothing to write home about either. As we've learned with Olivera, basing decisions on workouts is a dicey proposition, so level of play has to be considered. But Lewis is truly dominating his league right now and not cruising along solely on his natural ability. While not quite the role of a die, this is an inexact science.

    As for Max Pentecost, he's been injured (shoulder) so I don't know if his comparison to Lewis would hold. He didn't have great stats in rookie league/short-season A ball, but catching at the pro level is a lot different than catching at the college level so that probably took some adjusting.

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    I thought I'd look at all Top 5 picks over the 2006-2010 period to assess trends and risks. It is not a huge sample, so if someone has the time and inclination to look at years further past it would be a great idea.

    The 25 players in my sample broke down as follows: 9 college pitchers, 7 college hitters, 2 high school pitchers, 7 high school hitters. That in and of itself is interesting. It shows that teams do not shy away from college players when making very early picks. If there is a group that tends to be underrepresented within very early picks, it is high school pitchers.

    Now lets look at the individual groups to see if we can say something about risk. I'll list the players by group.

    College pitchers: Hochevar, Reynolds, Lincoln, Morrow, Price, Moskos, Matusz, Strasburg, Pomeranz

    College hitters: Longoria, Wieters, Alvarez, Posey, Ackley, Tony Sanchez, Christian Colon

    HS pitchers: Hobgood, Taillon

    HS hitters: Moustakas, Vitters, Tim Beckham, Hosmer, Tate, Harper, Machado

    Among college pitchers, I'd say five out of nine have been busts (Lincoln, Moskos, Reynolds, Pomeranz and Matusz)

    Among college hitters, I would classify four out of seven as busts (Colon, Sanchez, Alvarez and Ackley).

    Among HS pitchers, Hobgood is a bust, but Taillon is still regarded as a very good prospect even after TJ surgery.

    Among HS hitters, three out of seven are busts (Beckham, Tate and Vitters).

    So with just about every group, about half the picks are busts. Given the small sample size, that's about the most reasonable conclusion that can be reached. There is risk with every group when it comes to top 5 picks, and the risks do not seem to vary much by group.

    In terms of upside, there have been stud college pitchers (Price, Strasburg), stud college hitters (Longoria, Posey) and stud HS hitters (Harper, Machado) in the sample. So both the upside and downside risk seem to be fairly evenly distributed.

    I was curious about HS pitchers, so I looked at the number taken in 2001-2005 and 2011-2015. In 2001-2005, five out of the 25 were HS pitchers (Gruler, Lowen, Everts, Floyd and Mark Rogers). In 2011-2015, four out of 25 were HS pitchers (Aiken who did not sign, Kollek, Stewart, Bundy). So if you expand the sample to fifteen years, they are still somewhat underrepresented but not as much as my initial five year sample. The results look weak. So it would seem in terms of risk reward with Top 5 picks, HS hitters, college hitters and college pitchers are pretty similar. HS pitchers seem not to pan out as well and teams have responded by being a bit more careful about taking them with a Top 5 pick.
    Last edited by nsacpi; 04-21-2016 at 10:45 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    I thought I'd look at all Top 5 picks over the 2006-2010 period to assess trends and risks. It is not a huge sample, so if someone has the time and inclination to look at years further past it would be a great idea.

    The 25 players in my sample broke down as follows: 9 college pitchers, 7 college hitters, 2 high school pitchers, 7 high school hitters. That in and of itself is interesting. It shows that teams do not shy away from college players when making very early picks. If there is a group that tends to be underrepresented within very early picks, it is high school pitchers.

    Now lets look at the individual groups to see if we can say something about risk. I'll list the players by group.

    College pitchers: Hochevar, Reynolds, Lincoln, Morrow, Price, Moskos, Matusz, Strasburg, Pomeranz

    College hitters: Longoria, Wieters, Alvarez, Posey, Ackley, Tony Sanchez, Christian Colon

    HS pitchers: Hobgood, Taillon

    HS hitters: Moustakas, Vitters, Tim Beckham, Hosmer, Tate, Harper, Machado

    Among college pitchers, I'd say five out of nine have been busts (Lincoln, Moskos, Reynolds, Pomeranz and Matusz)

    Among college hitters, I would classify four out of seven as busts (Colon, Sanchez, Alvarez and Ackley).

    Among HS pitchers, Hobgood is a bust, but Taillon is still regarded as a very good prospect even after TJ surgery.

    Among HS hitters, three out of seven are busts (Beckham, Tate and Vitters).

    So with just about every group, about half the picks are busts. Given the small sample size, that's about the most reasonable conclusion that can be reached. There is risk with every group when it comes to top 5 picks, and the risks do not seem to vary much by group.

    In terms of upside, there have been stud college pitchers (Price, Strasburg), stud college hitters (Longoria, Posey) and stud HS hitters (Harper, Machado) in the sample. So both the upside and downside risk seem to be fairly evenly distributed.
    Are you defining bust in absolute or relative terms?

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    Why would Alvarez be considered a bust, but not Hosmer or Moustakas?

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