THURSDAY MINORS REPORT 6/7/18: Anderson Earns 1st Win

[clvclv]

This start worries me more than others where he walked more.

His BB rate in this game is lower than his season rate. His K rate was well lower. This was also a fairly economical start (99 pitches in 7 IP I believe).

What I'm worried about is that he might have either taken a bit off his stuff to throw more in the zone or else tried to put more in the zone than normal. If that's the case, he doesn't miss nearly as many bats.

Essentially, starts like this make me worry he's racking up Ks by getting guys to chase balls. That will get harder to do as he advances.

And these statements are what worry many of us more.

Not really meant to single you out striker - because we all do it at times - but did you actually SEE a single pitch?

The numbers are always important, but scouting boxscores really is useless without context. "Trouble With The Curve" is a nice little Hollywood piece for movie fans that doesn't do much for diehard baseball nuts (most of us), but that is actually something useful we can take from it.

I didn't see the game either, so I have no clue whether this particular umpire had a tight zone, loose zone, wasn't calling low strikes, etc.. Would like to get information about those things before deciding to worry about anyone, not just everybody's second favorite whipping boy (behind Allard, of course). There may very well be concerns - I'll be the first to admit the BBs have been surprising for longer than expected - but we really don't have much context.

Hard to argue with anyone who considers Wright a disappointment thus far based on boxscores.

[Southcack77]

This start worries me more than others where he walked more.

His BB rate in this game is lower than his season rate. His K rate was well lower. This was also a fairly economical start (99 pitches in 7 IP I believe).

What I'm worried about is that he might have either taken a bit off his stuff to throw more in the zone or else tried to put more in the zone than normal. If that's the case, he doesn't miss nearly as many bats.

Essentially, starts like this make me worry he's racking up Ks by getting guys to chase balls. That will get harder to do as he advances.

Are you going to be the Georgia Girl of Ian Anderson?

[striker42]

And these statements are what worry many of us more.

Not really meant to single you out striker - because we all do it at times - but did you actually SEE a single pitch?

The numbers are always important, but scouting boxscores really is useless without context. "Trouble With The Curve" is a nice little Hollywood piece for movie fans that doesn't do much for diehard baseball nuts (most of us), but that is actually something useful we can take from it.

I didn't see the game either, so I have no clue whether this particular umpire had a tight zone, loose zone, wasn't calling low strikes, etc.. Would like to get information about those things before deciding to worry about anyone, not just everybody's second favorite whipping boy (behind Allard, of course). There may very well be concerns - I'll be the first to admit the BBs have been surprising for longer than expected - but we really don't have much context.

Hard to argue with anyone who considers Wright a disappointment thus far based on boxscores.

I'll freely admit I'm just speculating based on the box scores. I'm not about to make any real judgments based on the box score from one start in high A ball.

I do think once the stats amass to a significant enough size you can draw some conclusions based on them. A guy might be working on something one start or there might be a bad ump behind the plate, but over time that stuff evens out a bit. That does make the walks concerning. They've been consistently high for well over a year now and Anderson's control was seen as a huge part of why he was drafted so high.

But my comments about last night were more just idle speculation and discussion on a message board.

Are you going to be the Georgia Girl of Ian Anderson?

I'm not nearly as high on Anderson as most but I'm not going to go overboard on it. If he figures out his control the sky's the limit but right now there's probably a greater likelihood he'll become another Lucas Sims than he'll break out into a top starter.

[TheBravos]

I'll freely admit I'm just speculating based on the box scores. I'm not about to make any real judgments based on the box score from one start in high A ball.

I do think once the stats amass to a significant enough size you can draw some conclusions based on them. A guy might be working on something one start or there might be a bad ump behind the plate, but over time that stuff evens out a bit. That does make the walks concerning. They've been consistently high for well over a year now and Anderson's control was seen as a huge part of why he was drafted so high.

But my comments about last night were more just idle speculation and discussion on a message board.




I'm not nearly as high on Anderson as most but I'm not going to go overboard on it. If he figures out his control the sky's the limit but right now there's probably a greater likelihood he'll become another Lucas Sims than he'll break out into a top starter.

His stuff is better.

[Southcack77]

I'll freely admit I'm just speculating based on the box scores. I'm not about to make any real judgments based on the box score from one start in high A ball.

I do think once the stats amass to a significant enough size you can draw some conclusions based on them. A guy might be working on something one start or there might be a bad ump behind the plate, but over time that stuff evens out a bit. That does make the walks concerning. They've been consistently high for well over a year now and Anderson's control was seen as a huge part of why he was drafted so high.

But my comments about last night were more just idle speculation and discussion on a message board.




I'm not nearly as high on Anderson as most but I'm not going to go overboard on it. If he figures out his control the sky's the limit but right now there's probably a greater likelihood he'll become another Lucas Sims than he'll break out into a top starter.

I'm still not sure what Lucas Sims has to do with anything, but you seem determined to run with that comparison.

So let's compare their stints in A+ Ball:

Sims: Age 20 156 IP 6.15 K/9 3.2 BB/9 .277 BABIP 4.19 ERA 4.56 FIP
Age 21 40 IP 8.33 K/9 5.18 BB/9 .325 BABIP 5.18 ERA 4.01 FIP

Anderson: Age 20 51 IP 10.59 K/9 4.24 BB/9 .297 BABIP 3.59 ERA 3.09 FIP


Ian is more likely to be promoted to AA before the end of this season than he is to repeat the level. Not that there is any need to rush him.

I'm also not exactly sure why you chose to pick Anderson's first "low" K game of the season to evidence a declining K rate and a change in approach, but I feel that's something like confirmation bias in action at its heart.

Anderson might well fail but his profile is pretty distinct from Sims and he's on a just fine path right now. He needs to work out his BB issues, but they are down slightly this year and this isn't the point in a career where the walk rate necessarily means everything. Just let these guys percolate.

Every new data point isn't a eureka.

[Super]

I'm still not sure what Lucas Sims has to do with anything, but you seem determined to run with that comparison.

So let's compare their stints in A+ Ball:

Sims: Age 20 156 IP 6.15 K/9 3.2 BB/9 .277 BABIP 4.19 ERA 4.56 FIP
Age 21 40 IP 8.33 K/9 5.18 BB/9 .325 BABIP 5.18 ERA 4.01 FIP

Anderson: Age 20 51 IP 10.59 K/9 4.24 BB/9 .297 BABIP 3.59 ERA 3.09 FIP


Ian is more likely to be promoted to AA before the end of this season than he is to repeat the level. Not that there is any need to rush him.

I'm also not exactly sure why you chose to pick Anderson's first "low" K game of the season to evidence a declining K rate and a change in approach, but I feel that's something like confirmation bias in action at its heart.

Anderson might well fail but his profile is pretty distinct from Sims and he's on a just fine path right now. He needs to work out his BB issues, but they are down slightly this year and this isn't the point in a career where the walk rate necessarily means everything. Just let these guys percolate.

Every new data point isn't a eureka.

the sims comparison really makes little sense

[thewupk]

the sims comparison really makes little sense

unless you sub "Lucas Sims" for "random failed pitching prospect"

[Southcack77]

unless you sub "Lucas Sims" for "random failed pitching prospect"

Sure, but telling someone they got the Lucas Sims just sounds worse.

[striker42]

I'm still not sure what Lucas Sims has to do with anything, but you seem determined to run with that comparison.

So let's compare their stints in A+ Ball:

Sims: Age 20 156 IP 6.15 K/9 3.2 BB/9 .277 BABIP 4.19 ERA 4.56 FIP
Age 21 40 IP 8.33 K/9 5.18 BB/9 .325 BABIP 5.18 ERA 4.01 FIP

Anderson: Age 20 51 IP 10.59 K/9 4.24 BB/9 .297 BABIP 3.59 ERA 3.09 FIP


Ian is more likely to be promoted to AA before the end of this season than he is to repeat the level. Not that there is any need to rush him.

I'm also not exactly sure why you chose to pick Anderson's first "low" K game of the season to evidence a declining K rate and a change in approach, but I feel that's something like confirmation bias in action at its heart.

Anderson might well fail but his profile is pretty distinct from Sims and he's on a just fine path right now. He needs to work out his BB issues, but they are down slightly this year and this isn't the point in a career where the walk rate necessarily means everything. Just let these guys percolate.

Every new data point isn't a eureka.

You can't look at just their A+ numbers in a vacuum. A+ was kind of an outlier for Sims with his K's dipping there. Look at the guys as a whole.

Here's why I compare the two. First, both are prep right handers that have a decent fastball and a good curve. Both are high strikeout pitchers. Sims has more often than not put up a K/9 over 10. Anderson is in his second season of a 10+ K/9. Anderson has a low HR total and Sims gave up very few HRs in the low minors.

But most importantly, both pitchers struggle to find the strikezone.

The description prep right hander, throws low to mid 90s, good curve, has a change, strikes out a lot of batters but walks a lot too describes both of them very well.

That being said, I am NOT predicting Anderson will be another Sims. I think Sims is his floor. That being said it is far, far more likely that he ends up like Sims than it is that he becomes a TOR starter. But that's not really going out on a limb. There are a hundred flameouts for every ace.

And again, last night wasn't some kind of eureka data point. It was just an interesting box score to speculate about. He seemed to be more efficient last night (99 pitches through 7 is about as efficient as he gets) which probably means he was in the zone more. I found his K and BB totals interesting if that was the case. Just trying to strike of a discussion about it.

[Super]

You can't look at just their A+ numbers in a vacuum. A+ was kind of an outlier for Sims with his K's dipping there. Look at the guys as a whole.

you used one start to point out anderson's k dip. lol

[thewupk]

Sure, but telling someone they got the Lucas Sims just sounds worse.

getting the Lucas Sims....

yeah that sounds awful

[Super]

That being said it is far, far more likely that he ends up like Sims than it is that he becomes a TOR starter.

you can say that for 98% of pitchers in the minor leagues. anderson, by most accounts, has much better stuff and is ranked more highly because of it.

[striker42]

you used one start to point out anderson's k dip. lol

Um...this is the minors gameday thread. It's where we talk about individual starts. Again, I'm not trying to draw any conclusions from one start. I'm simply discussing one possibility that could result in a start like this.

you can say that for 98% of pitchers in the minor leagues. anderson, by most accounts, has much better stuff and is ranked more highly because of it.

The vast majority of pitchers with Anderson's stuff and Anderson's draft position still never become TOR starters. Way more end up like Sims than end up as an ace.

And again, saying that he shares some similarities with Sims isn't saying he'll have Sims career path. That's just one possible path. We have to remember that when Sims was Anderson's age, he had a ton of potential still. Sims never overcame his control issues.

If Anderson doesn't fix his control he could very well end up like Sims. If he does fix his control he could be Aaron Nola. That's the range we're talking about right now.

[Super]

Um...this is the minors gameday thread. It's where we talk about individual starts. Again, I'm not trying to draw any conclusions from one start. I'm simply discussing one possibility that could result in a start like this.



The vast majority of pitchers with Anderson's stuff and Anderson's draft position still never become TOR starters. Way more end up like Sims than end up as an ace.

And again, saying that he shares some similarities with Sims isn't saying he'll have Sims career path. That's just one possible path. We have to remember that when Sims was Anderson's age, he had a ton of potential still. Sims never overcame his control issues.

If Anderson doesn't fix his control he could very well end up like Sims. If he does fix his control he could be Aaron Nola. That's the range we're talking about right now.

sims never had the stuff or rankings anderson has. that doesn't mean everything, but it definitely means something at this point in his career.
anderson is vastly outperforming what sims did at the same age and at the same level.
i'm still not sure what your point is beyond "20 year old pitcher in A+ ball needs further development." which is truly riveting.

[Enscheff]

What I learned today: we can all learn from movies that are purely fictional.

[striker42]

sims never had the stuff or rankings anderson has. that doesn't mean everything, but it definitely means something at this point in his career.
anderson is vastly outperforming what sims did at the same age and at the same level.
i'm still not sure what your point is beyond "20 year old pitcher in A+ ball needs further development." which is truly riveting.

I wasn't really making a big point. Someone essentially asked if I was going to be over the top against Anderson and I responded that I just thought some people were too high on him. That I thought he's more likely to be Sims than a TOR starter. That's when the discussion turned to whether Anderson could be compared to Sims.

If you want me to make a prediction of what I think Anderson will become. I would say a right handed version of Newcomb. I don't think he'll be quite as good as I think Newcomb gets a bump being a lefty with good stuff and I'm not a huge fan of Anderson's arm slot. But I think he'll be a guy who has good stuff and can put up dominant performances but whose control will hold him back. A decent number 3 starter.

Of course, this is just an educated guess at this point.

[Southcack77]

I wasn't really making a big point. Someone essentially asked if I was going to be over the top against Anderson and I responded that I just thought some people were too high on him. That I thought he's more likely to be Sims than a TOR starter. That's when the discussion turned to whether Anderson could be compared to Sims.

If you want me to make a prediction of what I think Anderson will become. I would say a right handed version of Newcomb. I don't think he'll be quite as good as I think Newcomb gets a bump being a lefty with good stuff and I'm not a huge fan of Anderson's arm slot. But I think he'll be a guy who has good stuff and can put up dominant performances but whose control will hold him back. A decent number 3 starter.

Of course, this is just an educated guess at this point.

No one really spends time talking about him and when they do its generally a discussion about whether he's disappointing. He's not even on thethe's pimp list.

This is really much more about you wanting to say he isn't very good than it is any push back against hype. I'm not clear why you are that concentrated on him, because you do bring it up a good bit.

At the end of the day, if you would quit comparing him to Lucas Sims you probably would not get much response.

[striker42]

No one really spends time talking about him and when they do its generally a discussion about whether he's disappointing. He's not even on thethe's pimp list.

This is really much more about you wanting to say he isn't very good than it is any push back against hype. I'm not clear why you are that concentrated on him, because you do bring it up a good bit.

At the end of the day, if you would quit comparing him to Lucas Sims you probably would not get much response.

I bring him up a lot because he's interesting. He's rated as one of our top prospects, he's the highest draft pick we've had since Chipper, and he's one of the few with these kind of characteristics that generates discussion. I guess Allard generates a lot of discussion but I feel like the field of that discussion is pretty well occupied.

Other top young guys either have everyone on board (e.g. Soroka and Acuna) or there's not a whole lot of difference of opinion on what we have (everyone knows Touki is raw with terrific stuff).

I still don't get why a Sims comp generates such a reaction. He has a lot in common with a young Lucas Sims. Anderson, however, still has the benefit of a having a good chance to improve his control enough to make it.

[clvclv]

What I learned today: we can all learn from movies that are purely fictional.

Says the guy who whines when someone points out his mistakes.

Please leave me alone..."It’s adorable how you guys have pounced on this error in phrasing lol." I really wasn't wrong - it was somebody else's fault I swear.

[Southcack77]

I bring him up a lot because he's interesting. He's rated as one of our top prospects, he's the highest draft pick we've had since Chipper, and he's one of the few with these kind of characteristics that generates discussion. I guess Allard generates a lot of discussion but I feel like the field of that discussion is pretty well occupied.

Other top young guys either have everyone on board (e.g. Soroka and Acuna) or there's not a whole lot of difference of opinion on what we have (everyone knows Touki is raw with terrific stuff).

I still don't get why a Sims comp generates such a reaction. He has a lot in common with a young Lucas Sims. Anderson, however, still has the benefit of a having a good chance to improve his control enough to make it.

Because the only things he has in common with Lucas Sims are the same things he has in common with every big framed projectable high school RHP.

The things he doesn't have in common with Lucas Sims are everything about his performance through the same period of his career and the industry consensus on his stuff.

A little pot stirring isn't a bad thing I guess. Carry on.