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Thread: Braves donate Justin Upton to Padres for prospects

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    Playing the Waiting Game blueagleace1's Avatar
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    In-Depth Alternative Option (PLEASE READ ENTIRE POST, sorry for the length)

    I would like to raise a hypothetical question that I would love as many opinions on as possible, but please if you respond, I only ask that you respect someone else's opinion that may differ from yours. Please bare with me as it takes a lot to fully describe this, and I urge you to read the entire post.

    It has been assumed by most everyone -from national writers, to beat writers, and to those of us on here- that after Heyward was traded that Justin would be next and would/could net us a large return (possibly the future "Ace" we've long coveted in Taijuan Walker). I am under the impression that the reason Justin hasn't been signed to an extension is because of our lack of finances and the scarceness of RH power, resulting in somewhat of an overpay for those few RH power bats. Here is somewhat of another possibility that I think should be looked at:

    1. As it stands our current payroll sits at $97,671,599 (this includes estimated arbitration salaries, pre-arb salaries and the remaining money owed to Uggla) and our 2013 Opening Day payroll was $115,000,000. This leaves us somewhere close to $17,000,000 -ownership has stated that payroll will not go down from last year- to fill out our remaining 6 roster spots or roughly $3,000,000 per spot.

    Instead of trading Justin Upton would it be possible to do this:

    1. Justin Upton will make $14,708,000 this season, B.J Upton will make $15,050,000 and Evan Gattis will make approx. $550,000

    2. Trade B.J Upton and Evan Gattis to the Houston Astros for Dexter Fowler. Ken Rosenthal had said earlier in the week that Houston was very interested in aquiring Gattis but balked at the proposed idea of B.J Upton and Gattis for Fowler, a pitching prospect, and veteran Catcher Carlos Corporan. Now we would retract our demand of a pitching prospect and Corporan being added to the deal and hoped that would be enough to get it done. Like it was said in the article the Astros could look at it like they were paying Upton's salary to Gattis and Gattis's salary to Upton (both would be a fair value for each other IMO).

    3. Take the money saved from the deal above -we would save $48,150,000 from dealing Upton + $550,000 for Gattis's 2015 salary - approx. $8,500,000 for Fowler's salary = $40,200,000- and extend Justin. So Justin Upton makes $14,708,000 in 2015 and would cost somewhere around $20-25 million per year to extend. Let's say we were to lock him up at 8 years / $180 million (which comes out to $22.5 million per year). Now his $14.7 million 2015 salary is already on our books so that would add $7.8 million per year to our payroll but if we were to take the money saved from dealing B.J and apply that to Justin's new salary we would basically be getting Justin at his current salary of $14.7 million for 5 more seasons -$40,200,000 (money saved from B.J) / $7,800,000 (difference in Justin's current salary and his new one) = 5.15- and all this would add up well when you factor in our increased revenue come 2017.

    4. When Uggla's money comes off the books after this upcoming season, we could possibly look at extending Fowler -a Atlanta native- to a long-term deal to play CF.

    So in the end I think tying B.J to Gattis which would rid us from B.J's contract, while netting us Fowler to play CF, and most importantly giving us the funds to extend Justin is something I would strongly consider. Again, I hope I didn't lose you with all the numbers above but it gives us another possible option to look at and would give us a long-term lineup/rotation that looked something like:

    1. Jose Peraza - 2B (Right)
    2. Dexter Fowler - CF (Switch)
    3. Freddie Freeman - 1B (Left)
    4. Justin Upton - LF/RF (Right)
    5. Nick Markakis - RF/LF (Left)
    6. Chris Johnson - 3B (Right)
    7. Christian Bethancourt - C (Right)
    8. Andrelton Simmons - SS (Right)

    Phil Goselin - 2B/3B/SS/OF (Right)
    Tyler Pastornicky - 2B/OF (Right)
    Todd Cunningham - OF (Switch)
    Kyle Kubitza - 3B/1B - (Left)
    Catcher

    1. Julio Teheran- RHP
    2. Alex Wood- LHP
    3. Shelby Miller- RHP
    4. Mike Minor- LHP
    5. 2015 veteran / Tyrell Jenkins / Jason Hursh / Lucas Sims / David Hale / Cody Martin

    CL- Craig Kimbrel - RHP
    SU- Arodys Vizcaino - RHP
    SU- Shae Simmons - RHP
    Chasen Shreve - LHP
    Luis Avilan - LHP
    Jim Johnson - RHP
    Anthony Varvaro - RHP
    James Russell - LHP
    David Carpenter - RHP
    Juan Jamie - RHP


    I could certainly get on-board with this.
    "Don't tell me the sky's the limit when there are footprints on the moon"

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    Braves should just bite the bullet and take on 10-15 million of BJs contract over the next 3 yrs, and make that trade with Houston.
    Last edited by Carp; 12-05-2014 at 03:27 AM.

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    Playing the Waiting Game BremanFan88's Avatar
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    So your team would rely on Freeman and Upton to carry 6 bad hitters. Ok...
    All you need is Hart and Cox.

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    I think most that disapprove of the Heyward trade understand the logic. I just don't agree. I'd have signed him for ~$22 mil. Every player, every signing is a risk. Now you're going to have to spend money on more risks (Markakis) that may be much bigger risks (Markakis), albeit for less money. Strictly talking about playing baseball, he's a much bigger risk. And now what? Who else are you going to get to replace the production JUp/Heyward offer? Will they be the slam dunk that Jason apparently wasn't? Prospects are monumentally more risky than Heyward.

    I'm confused as to what they see or where they're going. It will play out, but I don't see it being particularly pretty.

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    Quote Originally Posted by BremanFan88 View Post
    So your team would rely on Freeman and Upton to carry 6 bad hitters. Ok...
    Reminds me of 2001.
    Forever Fredi


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    Is Houston looking to deal Fowler? If so, he would be a nice option with his ability to play CF and get on base at a high clip.

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    Suppose Justin approached the front office and said he'd sign a 6 year/ 120 million extension if the club would give BJ no trade protection for the remaining three years on his contract. Would you take it?

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    Minor's value increases in that park. It also increases in a park like Safeco.

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    Quote Originally Posted by DirkPiggler View Post
    Suppose Justin approached the front office and said he'd sign a 6 year/ 120 million extension if the club would give BJ no trade protection for the remaining three years on his contract. Would you take it?
    So he doesn't really give a discount and demands we keep his brother? No thanks. 6/90 or something like that, where he is actually paying some of his brother's money back? Sure.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dalyn View Post
    So he doesn't really give a discount and demands we keep his brother? No thanks. 6/90 or something like that, where he is actually paying some of his brother's money back? Sure.
    You really don't think Upton is going to get over $20 million? I think he'll get that easily, and for more than 6 years. The length of time was really where I was assuming the discount though, more so than AAV.

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    Quote Originally Posted by DirkPiggler View Post
    You really don't think Upton is going to get over $20 million? I think he'll get that easily, and for more than 6 years. The length of time was really where I was assuming the discount though, more so than AAV.
    I think Justin will get about 25M/year if he goes to free agency. I'm ok with passing on him at that price. He is older than Jason (and given the difference in body types less likely to age well) and imo a lesser overall player. With Jason, I think 25M/year would be money well spent.

    At 20M/year I would have interest in Justin.

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    Quote Originally Posted by DirkPiggler View Post
    You really don't think Upton is going to get over $20 million? I think he'll get that easily, and for more than 6 years. The length of time was really where I was assuming the discount though, more so than AAV.
    20 million a year is not enough of a discount to keep his brother on the team. It just isn't. Not in my opinion. I would much rather trade them both if that's what it takes to get rid of BJ.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dalyn View Post
    20 million a year is not enough of a discount to keep his brother on the team. It just isn't. Not in my opinion. I would much rather trade them both if that's what it takes to get rid of BJ.
    I feel the same way, but I do think Upton would be taking less money and fewer years if he signed that deal. I have a desire to rid the team of BJ that borders on irrational though.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    I think Justin will get about 25M/year if he goes to free agency. I'm ok with passing on him at that price. He is older than Jason (and given the difference in body types less likely to age well) and imo a lesser overall player. With Jason, I think 25M/year would be money well spent.

    At 20M/year I would have interest in Justin.
    for how many years?

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    Quote Originally Posted by mikewon View Post
    for how many years?
    Doesn't matter because by the time we reach near the end of his contract the Chris Johnson's of the world will be making 16 million a year on the market.
    Forever Fredi


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    I realize that player's salaries are getting ridiculous and inflation plays a significant role here but 25 mil a year is still payed to premium players and eventhough I loved having Jason on the team he simply hasn't put up the premium offensive numbers that warrant that type of cash.

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    Recent rumors are that the Orioles, Rangers, and Padres are interested in JUp. I have to imagine the Mariners are also still in it as well. The main alternative to JUp for most of those teams seems to be Kemp, who is obviously much more expensive with a much larger contract.

    Assuming these are the 4 teams involved, what could they offer that is similar in value to Walker from the Ms?

    The Padres have a couple intriguing OF prospects and a couple decent SP prospects that profile as #3s. The Ms have several position players that might also work. The Rangers have Profar, who might be a good buy low candidate. What do the O's have to trade that might be worthwhile?

    Would you include cash with JUp in order to increase the return from the other team?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    Recent rumors are that the Orioles, Rangers, and Padres are interested in JUp. I have to imagine the Mariners are also still in it as well. The main alternative to JUp for most of those teams seems to be Kemp, who is obviously much more expensive with a much larger contract.

    Assuming these are the 4 teams involved, what could they offer that is similar in value to Walker from the Ms?

    The Padres have a couple intriguing OF prospects and a couple decent SP prospects that profile as #3s. The Ms have several position players that might also work. The Rangers have Profar, who might be a good buy low candidate. What do the O's have to trade that might be worthwhile?

    Would you include cash with JUp in order to increase the return from the other team?
    No, but i'd sure as hell include Carpenter.
    Ivermectin Man

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    Rangers now in on Kemp, too.

    I wonder if the asking price for Justin is a little offsetting.

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    I do any deal that involves us getting rid of that guy in CF.

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