GDT: 6/5 Braves at Padres

[msstate7]

Dansby at 1.5 fWAR in 46 games ~ 5.3 over 162 games

Dansby at 1.9 bWAR in 45 games (no update yet) ~ 6.8 over 162 games

[jpack1]

Dansby at 1.5 fWAR in 46 games ~ 5.3 over 162 games

Dansby at 1.9 bWAR in 45 games (no update yet) ~ 6.8 over 162 games

That any good? In my best Joe Simpson voice

[thewupk]

That any good? In my best Joe Simpson voice

But what about his opposite field hit total?

[thewupk]

Dansby at 1.5 fWAR in 46 games ~ 5.3 over 162 games

Dansby at 1.9 bWAR in 45 games (no update yet) ~ 6.8 over 162 games

Doubt he gets any support but he's playing at an all-star level. The report on his defense in the minors was legit.

[Southcack77]

Dansby at 1.5 fWAR in 46 games ~ 5.3 over 162 games

Dansby at 1.9 bWAR in 45 games (no update yet) ~ 6.8 over 162 games

huge portion of that is defense (which I find questionable component of WAR as a percentage), but he also has that 110 wRC+ with some reason to believe his K rate should come down a good bit and his walk rate go up a tad.

He's been great in the field, which honestly was as big a part of his disappointing season last year as his bat for me.

[DirkPiggler]

But what about his opposite field hit total?

Not nearly as important as the number of times he moved up the runner with a ground out to the right side.

[NYCBrave]

Today is a must win game. We're essentially facing what amounts to a bullpen game for the Padres.

[msstate7]

Dansby at 1.5 fWAR in 46 games ~ 5.3 over 162 games

Dansby at 1.9 bWAR in 45 games (no update yet) ~ 6.8 over 162 games

BR updated... Dansby at 2.3 bWAR in 46 games ~ 8.1 over 162. BR loves Swanson

[Enscheff]

Newk really looks like the real-deal. Walks are an issue but dude just rarely has games where he allows consistently hard contact.

What Newk is doing right now is completely unsustainable, but the results are fact, and the Braves have certainly benefited greatly.

His Ks are down, his BBs are still an issue, and qualified SP has ever held a 0.39 HR/9 over a full season this decade (lowest is 0.59).

His xFIP is 4.02, and just like Albies HR rate regressed, so too will Newk's.

[Tapate50]

What Newk is doing right now is completely unsustainable, but the results are fact, and the Braves have certainly benefited greatly.

His Ks are down, his BBs are still an issue, and qualified SP has ever held a 0.39 HR/9 over a full season this decade (lowest is 0.59).



His xFIP is 4.02, and just like Albies HR rate regressed, so too will Newk's.

The only hitch and I’m sure this is displayed in one of the stats, is that hitters just don’t get solid contact on Newcomb.

The stuff just didn’t go away so the Ks will be back. I don’t think he’ll be THIS good, but he’s shown he certainly CAN be.

[msstate7]

What Newk is doing right now is completely unsustainable, but the results are fact, and the Braves have certainly benefited greatly.

His Ks are down, his BBs are still an issue, and qualified SP has ever held a 0.39 HR/9 over a full season this decade (lowest is 0.59).

His xFIP is 4.02, and just like Albies HR rate regressed, so too will Newk's.

How do we know his K rate won't go back up? If that happens, doesn't it offset some of the regression?

[Orphan Black]

The gal who caught the foul ball from Ender in her beer cup and then chugged the beer is getting her 15 minutes on yahoo.

[UNCBlue012]

What Newk is doing right now is completely unsustainable, but the results are fact, and the Braves have certainly benefited greatly.

His Ks are down, his BBs are still an issue, and qualified SP has ever held a 0.39 HR/9 over a full season this decade (lowest is 0.59).

His xFIP is 4.02, and just like Albies HR rate regressed, so too will Newk's.

I don't think he's 2.50 ERA good, but the guy will likely regress to being 3.40-3.60, which is super solid. He's still the real deal!

[thewupk]

BR updated... Dansby at 2.3 bWAR in 46 games ~ 8.1 over 162. BR loves Swanson

DRS vs UZR. Some difference there but Swanson is playing at a 1st tier defensive SS. Great to see after last years debacle. We made the correct decision in keeping him at short.

[Garmel]

I don't think he's 2.50 ERA good, but the guy will likely regress to being 3.40-3.60, which is super solid. He's still the real deal!

Exactly. He's not an ace but he will migrate to a 3. Perhaps more if control gets better.

[msstate7]

DRS vs UZR. Some difference there but Swanson is playing at a 1st tier defensive SS. Great to see after last years debacle. We made the correct decision in keeping him at short.

Yep. I'm surprised albies is a negative defender at 2b. He looks good to me, but I guess my eyes can fool me

[GeorgiaGirl]

What Newk is doing right now is completely unsustainable, but the results are fact, and the Braves have certainly benefited greatly.

His Ks are down, his BBs are still an issue, and qualified SP has ever held a 0.39 HR/9 over a full season this decade (lowest is 0.59).

His xFIP is 4.02, and just like Albies HR rate regressed, so too will Newk's.

And on the other hand...his FIP is still in the low 3's, there's some hope that FIP could be a better indicator than xFIP on him because he limits hard contact, although not to a .39 HR/9, and statcast stays his xwOBA is still only a little higher than wOBA and hard contact is still at 28.3% (which is down from last year). All of the statcast stats are very good on him still and near the best in the NL.

The only indicator that I'd say is "meh" is xFIP. Maybe we need to see individual games though from statcast.

[Enscheff]

How do we know his K rate won't go back up? If that happens, doesn't it offset some of the regression?

Stuff (velocity, specifically) and K rates typically decline in the early 20s. Newk is about to turn 25. His K rate is probably on its way down already.

Newk's real improvements are going to come through improving his control, which he has done a little bit this year. The competing factors will be how much he can improve his control vs how much his stuff declines.

Just like I warned about MAdams and Albies unsustainable HR/FB rates normalizing, I'm warning about Newk's normalizing in the other direction (it's currently an absurd 4.9%). What both Newk and Folty are doing is completely unsustainable, no matter how many "they just don't give up solid contact" comments folks want to make.

Charmed seasons happen for a half season quite frequently, and sometimes they carry on for a full year, but they are never sustainable. Just ask Chris Johnson.

[UNCBlue012]

Stuff and K rates typically decline in the early 20s. Newk is about to turn 25. His K rate is probably on its way down already.

Newk's real improvements are going to come through improving his control, which he has done a little bit this year. The competing factors will be how much he can improve his control vs how much his stuff declines.

Just like I warned about MAdams and Albies unsustainable HR/FB rates normalizing, I'm warning about Newk's normalizing in the other direction (it's currently an absurd 4.9%). What both Newk and Folty are doing is completely unsustainable, no matter how many "they just don't give up solid contact" comments folks want to make.

Charmed seasons happen for a half season quite frequently, and sometimes they carry on for a full year, but they are never sustainable. Just ask Chris Johnson.

[thewupk]

The only hitch and I’m sure this is displayed in one of the stats, is that hitters just don’t get solid contact on Newcomb.

The stuff just didn’t go away so the Ks will be back. I don’t think he’ll be THIS good, but he’s shown he certainly CAN be.

This is true. His average exit velocity on FB/LD is the 6th lowest in baseball among starters. Couple that with the fact he's getting a true fly ball % of 22.8% you can see why he's not giving up many homeruns.

Compare that to Julio who's true fly ball rate is 32.6% and 28th highest exit velocity on LD/FB and his homerun totals are really high.

The exit velocity and angle (fly ball, etc) against Newk really shows up in the barrels against stat. Barrels is a term to defined a great launch angle with great exit velocity. These are batted ball events where hitters just crush it. Newks Barrels per batted ball event against is only 2.8%. That's the 2nd best among starters this year.

Some regression for Sean is likely but his current profile, imo, will lead to a low homerun rate.