Baseball America New Top 100

[BeanieAntics]

Depends. Can you throw an eephus?

Shoot, I could probably throw the best one in history. I can probably drop it down to 40 or so. Changeup at 55. That is a 17 MPH delta between my fastball and changeup!!! I can also throw it from different arm angles to really have the hitters spinning.

Guys I think I might legit have a shot. Somebody get on the phone with AA or Theo Epstein.

[BeanieAntics]

Control improving

Not really. He has been right around 2.6-2.7 his entire career.

[BeanieAntics]

Prefer to use career. If you want to parcel then he has 8 per 9 since June 1st.

Still can’t buy a beer legally and still dominating the league.

Using career numbers for a minor leaguer who is progressively facing better competition has to be on the wrong side of silly right? Isn't it reasonable to infer something from the fact that, as competition gets better, he is striking out fewer and fewer guys?

[Enscheff]

Of the guys that recently posted a below 7 K/9 at AAA, the only guy worth putting in a starting rotation is Daniel Mengden and even he's been absolutely drilled recently, which should tell a lot.

Guys that have a lower K rate in the majors but were guys that have learned the ropes are fine (but even they are suspect to days where everything just falls), but a guy in the minors that hasn't is likely not going to perform well in the majors.

I'd sell high on Allard after 2018.

Problem is, these lists are a reflection of player value around the league.

Allard's perceived value isn't that high, and has been dropping since the day he was drafted. Trading Allard now would be the opposite of selling high.

The Braves may as well see what he can do at the MLB level. He's probably not a unicorn, but maybe he is.

[bravesfanMatt]

Using career numbers for a minor leaguer who is progressively facing better competition has to be on the wrong side of silly right? Isn't it reasonable to infer something from the fact that, as competition gets better, he is striking out fewer and fewer guys?

Same thing could be said that as Allard gains experience against more experienced hitters. He has improved his K numbers. He is not ready for the show. I wouldn’t want him up unless it is a September call up just to be part of the experience. I would want him in AAA to start next year too. Not for clock reasons. But to continue to hone his skills.

[BeanieAntics]

Same thing could be said that as Allard gains experience against more experienced hitters. He has improved his K numbers. He is not ready for the show. I wouldn’t want him up unless it is a September call up just to be part of the experience. I would want him in AAA to start next year too. Not for clock reasons. But to continue to hone his skills.

Wait what? I didn't understand that. Allard has improved his K numbers as he has gained more experience against more experienced hitters or something? We can see through his stats that as competition gets better, his strikeout totals get lower.... Reword that first part. I feel like I missed the point lol

[bravesfanMatt]

Split allards season in half last year. First 14 games he was at 7 per 9.

His last 13 games he was at 8.5 per 9.

Funny thing is his era was a point higher in his second half numbers.

[bravesfanMatt]

Wait what? I didn't understand that. Allard has improved his K numbers as he has gained more experience against more experienced hitters or something? We can see through his stats that as competition gets better, his strikeout totals get lower.... Reword that first part. I feel like I missed the point lol

His numbers are trending up this year. His k rate is climbing as he gains experience against AAA hitters.

[OcalaBrave]

We will see what Allard's stuff really is when we get MLB statcast data on him. Until then, all we can do is go by the opinions of the guys writing in the public sphere. None of them appear to be very high on Allard.

No strawman argument. Opinions are based upon the reading on a radar gun instead of the results he is putting together. If he was a 3.50+ ERA I could understand the argument that his ceiling is limited. We will see how good his stuff is when he gets to Atlanta.

[OcalaBrave]

Prefer to use career. If you want to parcel then he has 8 per 9 since June 1st.

Still can’t buy a beer legally and still dominating the league.

Umm....

You might want to go take a look at Happ's AA/AAA K rates before declaring that as Allard's "at least" outcome.

I would be very interested to see some work done on how successful pitchers are at the MLB level after posting K rates around 7 in AA/AAA. I'm going to guess they didn't fair very well at all.

While you are working on that, put together a list of pitchers that produced a sub 3 ERA in AAA at age 20 and what they did in the majors.

[Enscheff]

While you are working on that, put together a list of pitchers that produced a sub 3 ERA in AAA at age 20 and what they did in the majors.

It's rather funny seeing yet another person being contrarian, yet offering no projection of their own, and zero actual contribution to the knowledge base with regards to the discussion. Are you Crack's padawan learner?

A quick look at Allard's numbers reveals his unsustainable 5.1% HR/FB rate is the main culprit for his ERA not matching his much more representative 3.5-4.0 xFIP/FIP values. Do we need to go over yet again what sustainable HR/FB rates are? Did we not learn already what unsustainable rates are by watching MAdams, Albies and Newcomb in the very recent past?

If someone has a site with searchable MiLB data, I'm sure we can put a few lists of comparables together.

[OcalaBrave]

It's rather funny seeing yet another person being contrarian, yet offering no projection of their own. Are you Crack's padawan learner?

A quick look at Allard's numbers reveals his unsustainable 5.1% HR/FB rate is the main culprit for his ERA not matching his much more representative 3.5-4.0 xFIP/FIP values. Do we need to go over yet again what sustainable HR/FB rates are? Did we not learn already what unsustainable rates are by watching MAdams, Albies and Newcomb in the very recent past?

If someone has a site with searchable MiLB data, I'm sure we can put a few lists of comparables together.

What validity would a projection hold? It is nothing but a best guess. Our best guesses will be different because yours will heavily consider a radar gun and mine will heavily consider age, level and results.

Advanced metrics aren't my thing. When you throw out the HR/FB stat, if his fastball is not getting hit hard doesn't that undercut the argument that his fastball is too hittable? I get you don't see it as sustainable, but pitching at 19 in AA and now 20 at AAA his fastball hasn't been slaugherted. Doesn't that provide reason to believe that despite being 3-5 ticks below where scouts would like to see it, that fastball moves, is put in a location, or thrown in a count where it plays up? That is my complaint. These public scouting opinions don't look into the results. They simply look at the radar gun to guage stuff.

What Allard has done the last two years is pretty unique. Ultimately it doesn't matter where he ranks on a prospect list. He will either get guys out when he gets to Atlanta or he won't. Track record says he will. Radar gun says he won't. I'm going with performance to date.