Good list.Originally Posted by nsacpi
Fangraphs recently noted that Anthopoulos, Bridges and Roy Clark were all at a Cole Wilcox vs. Anthony Seigler game. Wilcox will go way before our second pick and Seigler probably will too, but I'd love to take Seigler in the second round.
Here's an interesting one from Keith Law --
Larry: Would Gorman still be your pick for Atlanta?
Keith Law: Yes. Could also see Singer there. They loved Vasil before the injury; not sure they'd do that at 8 now.
Power is also very common at the MLB level now, so drafting for it is pretty dumb.
With the new ball, anyone who can make consistent contact is now a power hitter. There is no need to draft a power hitter with a questionable hit tool, especially at #8.
Get guys who can actually hit please.
jpx7 (05-25-2018)
Callis posted today that he and Mayo agree on the first seven picks, parting company on the Braves' pick.
The consensus: 1. Tigers: Casey Mize (RHP, Auburn); 2. Giants: Joey Bart (C, Ga. Tech); 3. Phillies: Alec Bohn (3B, Wichita St.); 4. White Sox: Brady Singer (RHP, Florida); 5. Reds: Nick Madrigal (2B, Oregon State); 6. Mets: Jonathan India (3B, Florida); 7. Padres: Matt Liberatore (HS, Arizona).
Callis' Braves pick: 8. Nolan Gorman (3B, HS, Phoenix). Lefty hitter. He has Stewart going to Rangers at No. 15.
Mayo's Braves pick: 8. Carter Stewart (RHP, HS, Florida). He has Gorman going to Rangers at No. 15.
Last edited by rico43; 05-25-2018 at 04:33 PM.
Would very much prefer a pitcher to Gorman.
I think a #8 pick requires a bit of a gamble if you want to get possible star value. It's relatively easy to get star value in the top 3 since most drafts sort themselves out pretty quick. But even that is no guarantee - see Mike Kelly. I think you can get a relatively safe pick with a high floor at #8, like a Mike Minor, who is never going to be a star but will likely give you several years at the ML level.
I think the Braves need to ask themselves if they have a pressing need for immediate (or near immediate) help from their #8 pick. If the answer is yes, and their is a good fit then you might see that at #8, something like a college catcher or maybe a good closer. That would be a situation for drafting for need. Maybe Bart if he were to fall or McClanahan if you planned to make him a closer.
I mean look at Madrigal. Is he an obvious superstar? Probably not. But he does look likely to hit and come fast to the ML. But where would he play? I think people see guys like Albies and Pedroia being successful and see no reason why Madrigal won't be.
Bohm is probably a 1B. India is a question.
To me, it looks obvious that the best value for a potential star type pick at #8 is a HS player or pitcher. Taking that as a starting point, I think Gorman is the best of the player options available. I look at his age and see that he just turned 18 which I think is important. Many forget that it has become pretty common for parents to hold their kids back so that they are a year older than their grade in terms of competition. If you look at other position players such as Kelenic (almost 19), Conner Scott (18.5), Turang (18.5), Edwards (almost 19), etc. So, Gorman has been young for his grade AND he has shown good enough to, at times, be projected as a 1/1 or at least in the top 5. He could bust. But, it's not like he's Scott Thorman, chosen out of nowhere based upon how loud the ball sounds and how far it goes when he does hit it.
To me, if you are going to pick a position player there it needs to be Gorman. You can at least justify that on potential upside. The sure thing college guys are probably gone by then OR have players already ahead of them with better skills in the Braves org. (why take India if you believe in Riley? India doesn't appear to be a sure thing and likely isn't a potential star, so at that point, if you take him you are taking him to ultimately trade him. That has value and I wouldn't argue that strategy IF the pick was about 20 or so.
But it doesn't HAVE to be a position player. There looks to be some real potential value there with HS arms in Stewart (18.5), maybe Liberatore (18.5), Winn (18.5), Weathers (18.5), Wilcox(almost 19), Hankins (just turned 18), etc. Out of those guys I like Hankins, Stewart, Liberatore and Winn in that order best.
A year's difference for kids like that can make a big difference and Gorman and Hankins are two of the youngest guys in the draft and both have been considered at times as high first rounders. Do both have questions? Of course, just like every other guy in this draft outside of the top 2 or 3 (even they aren't sure things). But I think they have been experiencing a case of "Scout fussiness" where these guys look really good early but slowly fade through a spring when every scout comes in with the mindset that these guys are too good to be true, they have to have a blemish, let me find it. It's like someone discussing the beauty of Scarlett Johansson and having a guy go yeah but it looks like her boobs might not be symmetrical.
Last edited by Horsehide Harry; 05-26-2018 at 04:02 PM.
Fangraphs draft rankings, including their FVs and where some guys would fit into their top prospect ranks. Cool list - http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/intro...b-draft-board/
Been waiting for this to go live for a while now. Thanks for sharing.
I love the fact they have included FVs like 45+ to differentiate the 45s a bit.
As long as the Braves grab a 50, I'm fine with it. Of the 8 guys who would fall at the back of the Top 100 list, I would prefer Kelenic.
I have to learn a bit about Larnach though.
They’re definitely the highest on Larnach from the sites I’ve seen.
Their write up also made me feel a little bit better on Gorman.
Gorman just screams "power prospect" to me.
Give me Kelenic and his projected 60 grade hit tool, and then watch him hit 20 HRs with the baseball MLB uses now.
I agree based on my scouting of bloggers' scouting of the draft.
I don't really want to see a tweener swing and miss guy with a top 10 pick.
nsacpi (05-29-2018)
He's a bit bigger\older than your given HS bat. Still a Benintendi comp kinda fills in there... he's got a bigger frame already though.
Last edited by Tapate50; 05-29-2018 at 02:49 PM.
Ivermectin Man
Right, age likely has a lot to do with it.
Rutherford dropped some prior to the draft a couple years ago because of his age, and that's not working out great right now. He's already 21 and just meh in A+.
If they insist on taking a pitcher, at least it looks like they will be taking the highest upside arm in the entire draft.
I'm still holding out hope one of the college bats falls to #8 though.
How common do you expect that to be? As long as the new ball is for everyone, which it appears to be, then it just moves the power scale up for the elite.
I get it, the new ball may be an effort for MLB to drive scoring while shortening the game while also curtailing the earning power of middle of the road power hitters. It also emphasizes the strike out which drives pace of game issues.
But, if the expectation that the number of 20 HR hitters will rise simply because of the ball and launch angle revolutions, then taking a 60 grade hit tool at #8 doesn't make much sense to me. At 15 or 25, or even 42. But not 8. At 8, if you have a chance to take someone who may be a 40+ HR guy in the world of modern baseball, I think you do that.
Plus Gorman is almost a full year younger.
This board also reveals something we already knew about the draft...only the first couple rounds really matter.
The Top 100 prospects were acquired as follows:
1st Round - 43
J2 Draft - 32
2nd Round - 12
3rd Round - 8
All other rounds - 5
Literally 90% of top prospects come from the first 3 rounds of the draft, or internationally.
This leads me to think teams would be best served trying to get elite players to slide to them in rounds 1-3 by offering over slot deals and punting the rest of the draft.
If the talent is overwhelming yes. But for the sake of floor, I would say no.
Typically I am a BPA person for the top of the draft. However, I don't hold that as absolute. For instance, let's say Madrigal falls to 8. Sure, he's a good player and one of the most attractive things about him is that he will come quick. But for the Braves, where would he play? Not 2B. Likely not SS, even if he CAN play it. Not 3B, nor CF nor RF. His likely hits for good average, but there's no guarantee that even with the new ball he would hit for enough power to play everyday in LF or RF. If you needed a 2B (or Albies was in his 4th or 5th year even) then I would say, fine, take him if he's the BPA.
I'm only going by the scouting reports on Kelenic for the 60 grade future hit tool. I have no idea how he, or any other prep prospect, might project in the future. I'm not Fat Ben, and I don't pretend to be able to scout players while sitting at home on my ass watching grainy cell phone video shot from the bleachers.
The new baseball is benefiting guys with fringe power much more than guys with elite power. It's a bit like playing whiffle ball in the backyard...make contact and it's a HR no matter how much power the hitter has.
Guys with plus hit tools and average or below power are suddenly the most efficient use of resources in the game.
I've been saying that for a while. The odds associated with finding a diamond in the rough after round 3 are so low they really aren't worth considering. With the independent leagues around and international signings, a team could blow their entire draft allotment early, then sign only SR's with no leverage and fill in the minor league rosters with FA and likely be much better off.
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