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Thread: Braves Sign Will Smith

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    Marlins fans must love life!!

    The memories!! The flags!!! Wow!!!

    Derrppp!!

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    Here's the thing about "flags fly forever", as it relates to the Cubs: they possibly didn't need Chapman to win that World Series (and they lapped their division, so they certainly didn't need him in the regular season). Chapman pitched in five games in that series: two comfortable wins, a loss, a close game where he actually blew the save (game seven) and one close game where he was dominant (game five). He had an ERA closer to four than to three in the LCS and the World Series.

    Of course, you don't usually want to get that granular with the analysis, and you can't look at game logs to say a given trade was good or bad. But it does illustrate just how tricky the win now/screw the future trades are. You trade Torres for Chapman knowing you'll likely "lose" the trade in terms of value acquired vs. value surrendered, but that's OK because you're prioritizing value in the present over value in the future. But when you're talking about such small sample sizes, especially with regards to relievers, you can't be sure you're actually in a position to get big-time present-day value. You're sacrificing the future without even knowing that you're getting the present in return.

    In essence, the Cubs traded the career of Gleyber Torres, a great damn player, in exchange for game five of the World Series.

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    Expects Yuge Games nsacpi's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Carp View Post
    I don't want DK at all, tbh, and certainly not on a multi-year deal. Rather have Hamels or even Bumgarner over DK if the cost was equal.
    I had forgotten about Hamels. He's a bit older so he should be available on a 1-2 year deal. I love those kinds of deals for older players who are still productive.
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    The goal is to win the world series isnt it?

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    Quote Originally Posted by BeanieAntics View Post
    1. That is an awfully convenient point of view when we're talking about the ramifications of "going for it"... Why not trade every single future asset you have when the future basically doesn't exist in your mind?

    2. No. No I would not. Because I don't want one world series, I want as many as possible. By extention, I want as large of a competitive window as possible. I'm not giving up the 2nd or 3rd most valuable asset in baseball plus two high upside starters to guarantee a single championship. 2020 might be great, 2021-Whenever would really suck.

    3. To me, that is an insane point of view. You're telling me that you would trade Albies and Acuna with their ridiculously team friendly contracts (possibly the two most valuable assets in baseball) plus a variety of different long term players of various values for a bunch of players on one year contracts that would guarantee a 2020 world series. Because that is the logical extreme of that statement. Sorry, not doing that.

    We should also point out that the Chapman trade didn't guarantee anything and its absolutely possible that the Cubs would have won it all without him. On the other hand, I can almost guarantee that the Cubs window would be longer if they hadn't made the Quintana and Chapman trade.
    It's unlikely the Cubs win without the Chapman trade, but whatever.

    If I could absolutely guarantee a WS win in 2020, you bet your ass I'd take it. Clearly it can't be guaranteed it, so it's a moot point, and I certainly wouldn't make that trade otherwise.

    But again, this isn't about supporting a Braves plan to follow the Sox/Cubs. The point is that making fun of the Sox/Cubs when they clearly received the desired benefits of such moves is dumb. They sold the future for a chance to win now and it worked.

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    It really breaks down into an example of a choice between 2 options:

    1. 10 seasons with a 10% of winning a WS, or

    2. 1 season with a guaranteed WS and 9 seasons of irrelevance.

    The behavioral science behind wager games are built on #1 being far more preferable. The entire casino industry is literally founded in it.

    Personally, I’d rather watch 10 exciting seasons than 1. Maybe I need more bull semen.

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    Personally I loved the year of weak contact, starring Eury Perez and Pedro Ciriaco. We had a very entertaining team that year.
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    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    The goal is to win the world series isnt it?
    It is, as is being good year in and year out. Playoff baseball is unpredictable, selling out the future doesnt guarantee anything.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    Personally I loved the year of weak contact, starring Eury Perez and Pedro Ciriaco. We had a very entertaining team that year.
    Yes, but I spent most of that season staring at pictures of the 1995 WS flag.

    It was wonderful!!

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    Two things to consider. Not sure if any correlation, but this really makes me feel like AA is pursuing a trade of Riley to whoever values him the highest to get a legit bat in return.

    Also thinking of the valuation of relevers with the new rules going into place. Is AA trying to get ahead of the curve in a time when LOOGYs and ROOGYs will see their value diminished?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Carp View Post
    It's unlikely the Cubs win without the Chapman trade, but whatever.

    If I could absolutely guarantee a WS win in 2020, you bet your ass I'd take it. Clearly it can't be guaranteed it, so it's a moot point, and I certainly wouldn't make that trade otherwise.

    But again, this isn't about supporting a Braves plan to follow the Sox/Cubs. The point is that making fun of the Sox/Cubs when they clearly received the desired benefits of such moves is dumb. They sold the future for a chance to win now and it worked.
    Your thought experiment is flawed because you only took the positive outcome to the extreme and neglected to take the negative outcome to the extreme as well.

    Very common logical hole in the thought sequence of people who evaluate results over process.

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    Quote Originally Posted by striker42 View Post
    Of that top list, Britton, Kelly, and Iglesias saw their wxOBA go down.

    Of the bottom list, Davis saw his wxOBA go up 3 points and Chatwood 14 points. So it's not like those guys were significantly worse than their FA year.

    I think the real problem with a lot of the guys who didn't work out is that they weren't that great when they got these deals. I think that might be a factor at teams getting better at identifying players worth extending and those that it's better to let walk.

    I think Smith has a pretty good chance of continuing to be effective. Will he stay as effective as he has been the last few years? Hard to say.

    Fangraphs appears to like the signing though:

    https://blogs.fangraphs.com/wild-wil...gn-will-smith/
    This is a very good point that we (meaning I) glossed over.

    2 year xwOBA of those pitchers prior to getting their big contract:

    McGee: .323
    Chatwood: .323
    Kelly: .313
    Britton: .304
    Iglesias: .291
    Davis: .278
    Familia: .278
    Shaw: .276
    Ottavino: .275
    Kimbrel: .253

    Smith: .248

    So yes, it is fair to say Will Smith is considerably better than all of those BP arms were except Kimbrel.

    Given that data, signing Will Smith to a contract similar to the deal received by lesser (in some cases much lesser) BP arms should be considered a good value move.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    Lol you guarantee it? Let’s create a nationwide poll in 2-3 years when the Cubs suck and the the entire FO is dumped.

    We will see how much they love staring at that flag when they have nothing to watch.
    https://www.12up.com/posts/cubs-shou...d-01dppc16tbat

    From the Chicago tribune:

    https://www.chicagotribune.com/sport...725-story.html

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    You just linked two articles from two individuals, not a poll of a fanbase. And one of the articles states plainly that Cubs fans are having regrets over the Chapman trade.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    Yes, but I spent most of that season staring at pictures of the 1995 WS flag.

    It was wonderful!!
    Would you rather have not won the 95 series? I suppose we could have kept Roberto Kelly instead of trading for Grissom. What might have been!!!!

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    LOL...

    "And now that Torres is developed into a bonafide stud, and Chapman ended up back in New York, some fans are having regrets about the deal."

    You literally just posted something that completely negates your position.

    Logic...it's not for everyone...

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    Quote Originally Posted by BeanieAntics View Post
    You just linked two articles from two individuals, not a poll of a fanbase. And one of the articles states plainly that Cubs fans are having regrets over the Chapman trade.
    Can't find a poll. But you're welcome to start one.

    I linked that specific article because the Cubs that responded to the tweets all were for the trade.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    This is a very good point that we (meaning I) glossed over.

    2 year xwOBA of those pitchers prior to getting their big contract:

    McGee: .323
    Chatwood: .323
    Kelly: .313
    Britton: .304
    Iglesias: .291
    Davis: .278
    Familia: .278
    Shaw: .276
    Ottavino: .275
    Kimbrel: .253

    Smith: .248

    So yes, it is fair to say Will Smith is considerably better than all of those BP arms were except Kimbrel.

    Given that data, signing Will Smith to a contract similar to the deal received by lesser (in some cases much lesser) BP arms should be considered a good value move.
    As someone very much in the “don’t pay relievers” camp, this context is at least encouraging and suggestive of a logic beyond panic.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    This is a very good point that we (meaning I) glossed over.

    2 year xwOBA of those pitchers prior to getting their big contract:

    McGee: .323
    Chatwood: .323
    Kelly: .313
    Britton: .304
    Iglesias: .291
    Davis: .278
    Familia: .278
    Shaw: .276
    Ottavino: .275
    Kimbrel: .253

    Smith: .248

    So yes, it is fair to say Will Smith is considerably better than all of those BP arms were except Kimbrel.

    Given that data, signing Will Smith to a contract similar to the deal received by lesser (in some cases much lesser) BP arms should be considered a good value move.
    It could be that later in the off-season another team will sign Ryu or Wheeler or Bumgarner on a similar value move. But I think any GM given a chance to sign Smith on those terms at this point in the off-season would have had to seriously consider doing so. It does mean less $$ to be spent on other areas of need. But value is value and we can spend some prospect capital if necessary to fill other areas of need.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    Flags fly forever!! Derrrpppp!!

    Let’s gather up at the local pub in October to watch the flag together since the team isn’t playing baseball!!

    Derrrpp!!

    Isn’t that what the 9 remaining Marlins fans do all season?

    Deerherreppp!!
    Imagine being dumb enough to make this douchebag a mod so no one can just ignore his retarded **** posts.
    Enscheff is F@G

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