AcuñaMania

[Southcack77]

Here is an interesting article on BA>BABIP.

Big HR and low Ks is the formula.

That's pretty good indication of a great player, though not all the ones who have done it are great and not all the seasons were super.


https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bey...rage-and-babip

[Southcack77]

That's a good post and some good info. We'll just have to wait and see.

It is good. Any sense of what the most likely change in batted ball profile is as players mature?

Would a 19 year tend to see an increase in line drives or stay pretty consistent?

Where was Freddie at 19?

[smootness]

It is good. Any sense of what the most likely change in batted ball profile is as players mature?

Would a 19 year tend to see an increase in line drives or stay pretty consistent?

Where was Freddie at 19?

I don't know. Trout had a ton of IFFB in the minors, too.

[Enscheff]

This is a lot of discussion just so you guys don't have to admit a lot of Acuna's success has been fueled by unsustainable BABIP luck.

Time will prove you wrong...again.

[Southcack77]

This is a lot of discussion just so you guys don't have to admit a lot of Acuna's success has been fueled by unsustainable BABIP luck.

Time will prove you wrong...again.

Don't "you guys" me. I'm not in the Acuna fan club yet.

[smootness]

This is a lot of discussion just so you guys don't have to admit a lot of Acuna's success has been fueled by unsustainable BABIP luck.

Time will prove you wrong...again.

This is a lot of discussion just so you can convince yourself you're smarter than a bunch of complete morons. Well done.

[Managuarantano's Volunteers]

This is a lot of discussion just so you guys don't have to admit a lot of Acuna's success has been fueled by unsustainable BABIP luck.

Time will prove you wrong...again.

S'posed to say y'all man, this is the South.

[mfree80]

This is a lot of discussion just so you guys don't have to admit a lot of Acuna's success has been fueled by unsustainable BABIP luck.

Time will prove you wrong...again.

Why is it so important to you to prove other people wrong? You post great stuff. Quit worrying about battling with everyone and just keep posting great information and analysis.

[CJC]

Great, let's check out Freeman's batted ball profile, and try to see how he has sustained that .343 BABIP.

LD/GB/FB: 27/37/36
Pull/Center/Opp: 39/31/30

Now compare that to a similar hitter, Anthony Rizzo, who has a .286 career BABIP.

LD/GB/FB: 21/39/40
Pull/Center/Oppo: 43/35/22

Rizzo's BABIP is 57 points below Freeman's. Why?

About 40 of those points can be attributed to his inferior LD rate. The rest due to the fact he hits more FBs and pull the ball more often than Freeman. None of this is a mystery. It is all well understood.

Now eyeballing Acuna this year in AAA.

LD/GB/FB: 24/44/32
Pull/Center/Oppo: 40/23/36

Whose batted ball profile does that more closely resemble? I'd say it falls right between Rizzo and Freeman, so I'd say his expected BABIP would be right between Freeman's .343 and Rizzo's .286.

Know what the average of those 2 values is? .315

Seems like a good approximation of what Acuna's MLB BABIP is likely to be, and pretty much what I've been citing the entire time this discussion has gone on.

Yeah, I don't think taking the midpoint of Freeman/Rizzo works when his GB rate is so high. He'll be able to sustain a higher BABIP than the midpoint. His LD rate is higher and he has hard hit GBs.

[Southcack77]

It is good. Any sense of what the most likely change in batted ball profile is as players mature?

Would a 19 year tend to see an increase in line drives or stay pretty consistent?

Where was Freddie at 19?

Well, here is the answer with Freeman. His LD% in the minors:

2007 Age 18 A 19.4%
2008 Age 19 A+ 17.1% AA 16.5%
2009 Age 20 AAA 25% ATL 18.8%

2011 Age 21 ATL 23%
2012 Age 22 ATL 26%
2013 Age 23 ATL 26.7%
2014 Age 24 ATL 31%
2015 Age 25 ATL 27.8%
2016 Age 26 ATL 29.1%
2017 Age 27 ATL 24.5%


If Freddie Freeman is the sun, then it looks like it is reasonable to predict that LD% will increase year over year. As Acuna is hitting more LD at a younger age than Freddie did, perhaps it is reasonable to expect Acuna to hit as many or more when he hits the big leagues. Or perhaps it isn't predictable at all.

Either way, somewhat strange to compare Freddie Freeman's career LD% to Acuna at 19 without pointing out that Acuna has been hitting more at a younger age. While Acuna might be somewhat unlikely to become the hitter Freeman is because one is a far above average player and the other is a prospect, you could say that perhaps Acuna is more likely as a prospect to become Freddie Freeman by the numbers than Freddie Freeman was. At least as far as LD %.

[Diesel]

Yeah, I don't think taking the midpoint of Freeman/Rizzo works when his GB rate is so high. He'll be able to sustain a higher BABIP than the midpoint. His LD rate is higher and he has hard hit GBs.

Yeah, I think the fact that he has a high BBAIP while hitting 44% ground balls is a good reason to expect his BBAIP to come way down in the majors. Ground balls are usually outs at a high percentage. If they are finding more holes that one would expect, that is luck and precisely the reason we pay attention to those numbers. Even if he is hitting hard ground balls and line drives at high clip, 44% ground balls will make a high BBAIP less sustainable.

[Hulavol]

Why is it so important to you to prove other people wrong? You post great stuff. Quit worrying about battling with everyone and just keep posting great information and analysis.

THIS. ALL DAY LONG.

[CJC]

Yeah, I think the fact that he has a high BBAIP while hitting 44% ground balls is a good reason to expect his BBAIP to come way down in the majors. Ground balls are usually outs at a high percentage. If they are finding more holes that one would expect, that is luck and precisely the reason we pay attention to those numbers. Even if he is hitting hard ground balls and line drives at high clip, 44% ground balls will make a high BBAIP less sustainable.

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/pitching/batted-ball/

GB leads to a higher average than a FB. FBs are better for SLG, but those numbers obviously include HRs.

[thewupk]

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/pitching/batted-ball/

GB leads to a higher average than a FB. FBs are better for SLG, but those numbers obviously include HRs.

It's all about balance. For BABIP line drives are king then grounders and then flyballs. However for hits that do damage then flyballs (depending on launch angle) are king then of course line drives and then grounders. I would never project a high BABIP for anybody because of the rarity of it. And a high BABIP is not even remotely close to being necessary to being an elite hitter so I'm not sure why it matters that much. Acuna is showing great power at such a young age and that is really the most important thing regarding his outlook and not whether he can have a 340 BABIP.

[nsacpi]

It's all about balance. For BABIP line drives are king then grounders and then flyballs. However for hits that do damage then flyballs (depending on launch angle) are king then of course line drives and then grounders. I would never project a high BABIP for anybody because of the rarity of it. And a high BABIP is not even remotely close to being necessary to being an elite hitter so I'm not sure why it matters that much. Acuna is showing great power at such a young age and that is really the most important thing regarding his outlook and not whether he can have a 340 BABIP.

I agree. If he becomes an elite hitter, it will probably be because he sustains the combination of ISO over .200/strikeout rate under 20% that he is showing in AAA rather than through carrying a high BABIP.

[gilesfan]

The correlation between line drives (batted ball profile) and BA is not there yet. The reason, I suppose, is a sawed up soft liner is considered a "line drive," which people typically associate a hard hit ball with. And a ground ball could be scolded or barely touched. We will probably get there sooner or later, but there needs to be some more refinement before we guestimate batting averages simply on batted ball profile.

[Jaw]

Mallex didn't sustain a BABIP that high. His overall minor-league BABIP was like .350-.360.

I was just wondering if you knew that minor league BABIP doesn't predict major league BABIP in anyway. Because it makes sense that if you have a similar batted ball profile and speed, that it definitely will be predictive in some way.

And I did not make a prediction. I merely said that it's possible the BABIP he has mostly sustained through his minor-league career so far is not a complete aberration. Enscheff is the one who essentially made a prediction. I just said his prediction seems arbitrary and pointless. If I did have to predict for Acuna, I would say his true minor-league BABIP is somewhere around .370-.380, based on the numbers we have, and that his major-league BABIP will be clearly better than average, somewhere in the .340ish range.

With all of the Waters conversation I went looking for discussion on Acuña's minor league BABIP and came across this thread. Ronald posted a .352 last year and is at .347 so far this year.
Smoot's faith has so far been justified.

[The Chosen One]

Great thread.

[nsacpi]

Great thread.

a sad reminder of how great these boards once were and how far they have fallen

but soon very soon the #chosenone will appear and take us back to the promised land

[The Chosen One]

a sad reminder of how great these boards once were and how far they have fallen

but soon very soon the #chosenone will appear and take us back to the promised land

There's been many iterations previously... The Don. Ronald Rump. Individual-1. Seems only natural TheChosenOne is a natural successor.