The NOT August 12 2017 Gamethread

[Super]

Hope you're right. The Phillies plan is that it won't this season though, I'm sure

i think they more wanted to sure up their bench and saw an opportunity to do so at a low-to-no cost like we did with duvall.

[msstate7]

i think they more wanted to sure up their bench and saw an opportunity to do so at a low-to-no cost like we did with duvall.

7 games left with braves... I set o/u at 3.5 for bour starts

[Super]

7 games left with braves... I set o/u at 3.5 for bour starts

and sit santana or hoskins? i think that's an overall win either way. they have santana for 2 more years at $20M a piece. benching him is a bad sign. and i'd gladly face anyone else on that team than hoskins (at least at the plate). but by all means, i hope they keep not improving their defense.

[NinersSBChamps]

You have to think the Nationals are done. The way they lost last night spells the end in my mind. I would not be surprised if by the end of the month they are at least 10 games back and will mailed it in.

[msstate7]

and sit santana or hoskins? i think that's an overall win either way. they have santana for 2 more years at $20M a piece. benching him is a bad sign. and i'd gladly face anyone else on that team than hoskins (at least at the plate). but by all means, i hope they keep not improving their defense.

Sit santana. Here's both slash lines this year...

Santana .215/.351/.396. 1.0 fWAR (117 games)
Bour .229/.348/.413 0.5 fWAR (113 games)

Not like they'd be sitting FF. Both are negative defenders... santana -9.0 and bour -8.4. With the way bour has swung it vs braves, I'd do it

[striker42]

You have to think the Nationals are done. The way they lost last night spells the end in my mind. I would not be surprised if by the end of the month they are at least 10 games back and will mailed it in.

Remember 2011? We had an 8.5 game wild card lead with a month left to play and lost 18 of 26. I'll never count a team out after that.

[Super]

With the way bour has swung it vs braves, I'd do it

because he just becomes a better hitter when the guy he's facing is wearing a braves jersey.
and like i said - fine, sit santana. it was a dumb contract and will look worse and worse.

[JxnMissFan]

You have to think the Nationals are done. The way they lost last night spells the end in my mind. I would not be surprised if by the end of the month they are at least 10 games back and will mailed it in.

The nats are finished this year. The nats are 2 games over.500. The Braves and Phillies are both 11 games over. Both the Braves and Philles would have to play sub .500 ball for them to have a shot. It’s not out of possibility that one of that pair plays below .500 but I just don’t see both playing that badly.

[thewupk]

Remember 2011? We had an 8.5 game wild card lead with a month left to play and lost 18 of 26. I'll never count a team out after that.

1% bro

[NinersSBChamps]

The nats are finished this year. The nats are 2 games over.500. The Braves and Phillies are both 11 games over. Both the Braves and Philles would have to play sub .500 ball for them to have a shot. It’s not out of possibility that one of that pair plays below .500 but I just don’t see both playing that badly.

Even if they both play under .500 the rest of way the Nationals would need to play extremely well to make the games back up. I wouldn’t be shocked at all if the Marlins or Mets finish in third place. I fully expect the Nats to fold like a lawn chair.

[thewupk]

The nats are finished this year. The nats are 2 games over.500. The Braves and Phillies are both 11 games over. Both the Braves and Philles would have to play sub .500 ball for them to have a shot. It’s not out of possibility that one of that pair plays below .500 but I just don’t see both playing that badly.

Five Thirty Eight has both the Braves and Phillies at 45% to win the division. 10% for the Nats. They done.

[Super]

Five Thirty Eight has both the Braves and Phillies at 45% to win the division. 10% for the Nats. They done.

FG had the nats with a higher chance to win the WS than either the braves or phillies. like how? why?

[thewupk]

FG had the nats with a higher chance to win the WS than either the braves or phillies. like how? why?

Because the Nats were one of the heavy favorites in their Zips projections and that's still weighted heavily.

[Super]

Because the Nats were one of the heavy favorites in their Zips projections and that's still weighted heavily.

true. would also still like to know why they like the phillies a good bit better than us. oh well.

[Enscheff]

Yeah, that didn't play out. In my weak defense, at the time of the post, the braves were booting balls and ender had just let Braun take 2nd of a single to left center

Yeah, nobody on this board ever gets overly emotional and abandons all sense of reason.

[thewupk]

true. would also still like to know why they like the phillies a good bit better than us. oh well.

same reason. zips had them better than the Braves to start the year

[Super]

same reason. zips had them better than the Braves to start the year

well then they need to stop clinging to that

[bravesfanforlife88]

You have to think the Nationals are done. The way they lost last night spells the end in my mind. I would not be surprised if by the end of the month they are at least 10 games back and will mailed it in.

Rumor was they had a deal in place for all of their players....including Harper....I expect them to fall out over the next 2 weeks and try to sell off....

[Enscheff]

true. would also still like to know why they like the phillies a good bit better than us. oh well.

Because FG uses ZiPs as their projection model, and ZiPs is calculated with a crappy spreadsheet macro that takes days to run. Due to the long run time, they don't make updated projections very often (if at all), so those projections are not taking into account real improvements made by a young team like the Braves.

Definitely take the over on FG's projections for the Braves right now, imo.

[bravesfanMatt]

Winning the division and winning the World Series are not the same. If the gNats sneak in the playoffs they become more dangerous with a bona fide ace in short series.