2015 June Draft Results Thread

[weso1]

So here are my thoughts on the draft:

Allard - Really think this was a great pick. He is one of the few that you can compare to a top player and that might actually really be his ceiling. I'm not sure there was a player available like that outside of the guys that we couldn't sign.

Soroka - I like this pick as well. I'm big on pitchers that throw a good fastball/changeup combo with good movement at a reasonable velocity. Good size and all that stuff.

Riley - I like the pick if he sticks at third base. Has the ability to play over there and good power potential. Needs to lay off the fried chicken.

Lucas - Meh.

AJ Minter - Meh. Maybe a bit too early to take a loogy projection? This to me is the first 2017 pick. A move to try and improve the bullpen for 2017.

[50PoundHead]

To the extent there is a formula or recipe for success in the draft the Braves have stuck to it. In the first round and other early rounds, you really want to get the high upside players, who for the most part are high school players, with the occasional college pitcher mixed in.

If you want to break things down even more, the track record shows that high school pitchers are not that good an investment after the first round. So it makes sense to take two in the first round and then follow that with two high school hitters in the second round. The AJ Minter pick is very interesting. His stuff seems to have been very good and hopefully he comes back with all of it after the TJ surgery.

The draft formula changes a bit once you move to the middle rounds (4-10). Here you want to shift toward college players, especially pitchers. I'm not saying you don't take any high school players here. You should always have a mix on your draft board. But the mix should shift toward college players the deeper into the draft you get. Historically in the middle rounds, the Braves have gotten their best returns from college pitchers and their weakest returns from high school hitters.

Once you get into the late rounds (11 onward) college players should make up at least three quarters of your picks. Our drafting history suggests we should especially hold down the number of high school pitchers in this part of the draft.

Very well said. I had no idea how the draft would play out for the Braves. Only thing I find a little odd is that they said they were going to shy away from guys with injury issues and they drafted two guys with them. Minter pick is the puzzling one from that regard.

I don't see any of the guys as reaches. They are all pretty much in the strata where they were expected to be drafted. This isn't like the NFL draft where there's a relatively small pool of players who at pretty much at the same stage of their physical development. There are other factors in the MLB draft and part of that is comparing 17-year-olds on their projection with more mature 21- and 22-year-olds. Add to that signability questions that are now compounded by pool limits and the process takes on a very different feel.

I was hoping for Jahmai Jones. Alonzo Jones is still out there along with a number of decent college bats.

[nsacpi]

We are developing a bit of a track record of being willing to draft pitchers with recent injury issues. Wood and Hursh were about a year past TJ surgery when we took them. I believe Janas too. We took Sobotka last year in the fourth round even though a back injury had prevented him from pitching last spring. I think the key is having the medical staff thoroughly familiar with the player's injury history and being confident that there are no chronic issues.

So many pitchers have injury histories that I think you need to be open minded. Otherwise, you are limiting yourself in an unnecessary way. Maybe you can get a more talented player if you are willing to outwork the other team in terms of coming to a good understanding of where an injured player stands in terms of his chances for a complete recovery.

[thethe]

We are developing a bit of a track record of being willing to draft pitchers with recent injury issues. Wood and Hursh were about a year past TJ surgery when we took them. I believe Janas too. We took Sobotka last year in he fourth round even though a back injury had prevented him from pitching last spring. I think the key is having the medical staff thoroughly familiar with the player's injury history and being confident that there are no chronic issues.

If it works out like Alex Wood then great. But in the aggregate I think we are going to waste a lot of picks that way.

On the flip side you are getting guys whose ceilings are much higher than where they are picked and if you take enough of them some are going to be healthy. Then when you get a healthy one they are a damn good pitcher.

[nsacpi]

Next year's Rome rotation could look like this: Allard, Soroka, Fulenchek, Dilmer Mejia. We need one more guy to round it out, maybe Minter by mid-season. Given attrition for pitching prospects, I always felt that you need five legitimate starting pitching prospects in your low A rotation. Attrition will typically cost you a pitcher per level. So that group will drop to four in high A, three in AA, two in AAA, and one in the majors. Attrition is very high for young pitching prospects. That's why you need lots of them. The lower level of our farm system has been thin in terms of starting pitching in recent years and it looks like that problem has now been rectified.

[chop2chip]

So here are my thoughts on the draft:

Allard - Really think this was a great pick. He is one of the few that you can compare to a top player and that might actually really be his ceiling. I'm not sure there was a player available like that outside of the guys that we couldn't sign.

Soroka - I like this pick as well. I'm big on pitchers that throw a good fastball/changeup combo with good movement at a reasonable velocity. Good size and all that stuff.

Riley - I like the pick if he sticks at third base. Has the ability to play over there and good power potential. Needs to lay off the fried chicken.

Lucas - Meh.

AJ Minter - Meh. Maybe a bit too early to take a loogy projection? This to me is the first 2017 pick. A move to try and improve the bullpen for 2017.

I'll be fine with this entire group of players if it means that we can load up on a couple of overslot guys today (Everett, Matuella, etc.). I'm not necessarily happy with Allard and 4 lottery tickets.

[sturg33]

Rizzo and Russell were acquired via trades for - wait for it...

















established SPs named Samardzija and Cashner.

Man - I waited and was disappointed.

Looks like you just told us what we all already knew. The Cubs philosophy has been to acquire hitting. Ours has been to acquire pitching. With the way the game is going, I'd prefer the Cubs

They have traded established pitching for hitting prospects. We have traded established hitting for pitching prospects - which is odd bc they have much higher bust rates

[thethe]

Man - I waited and was disappointed.

Looks like you just told us what we all already knew. The Cubs philosophy has been to acquire hitting. Ours has been to acquire pitching. With the way the game is going, I'd prefer the Cubs way

Or maybe the Braves are ready willing and able to acquire hitting but first needed what the Cubs had to get it done?

[thethe]

I'll be fine with this entire group of players if it means that we can load up on a couple of overslot guys today (Everett, Matuella, etc.). I'm not necessarily happy with Allard and 4 lottery tickets.

Everyone outside of the top 5-10 are lottery tickets, Allard included.

[sturg33]

Or maybe the Braves are ready willing and able to acquire hitting but first needed what the Cubs had to get it done?

Well the Braves had some pretty damn good assets to deal this winter and didn't bring in much offense. The highlights were Miller, Jenkins, Fried, Folty, and Wisler

[thethe]

Well the Braves had some pretty damn good assets to deal this winter and didn't bring in much offense. The highlights were Miller, Jenkins, Fried, Folty, and Wisler

And they now have the necessary currency to trade for a bat when one becomes available. This rebuild was never going to happen overnight. Braves could go into next season with a legitimate 8 starting pitchers:

Teheran
Wood
Miller
Folty
Perez
Wisler
Banuelos
Jenkins

And they may even sign a pitcher in the offseason as well so that they can trade from their stable. So if you want the Cubs way then it looks like the Braves are on that path now.

[sturg33]

And they now have the necessary currency to trade for a bat when one becomes available. This rebuild was never going to happen overnight. Braves could go into next season with a legitimate 8 starting pitchers:

Teheran
Wood
Miller
Folty
Perez
Wisler
Banuelos
Jenkins

And they may even sign a pitcher in the offseason as well so that they can trade from their stable. So if you want the Cubs way then it looks like the Braves are on that path now.

Sure - but your argument is that the Braves will use their assets to acquire offensive assets. This FO has only done the opposite so far

[Deester11]

Well the Braves had some pretty damn good assets to deal this winter and didn't bring in much offense. The highlights were Miller, Jenkins, Fried, Folty, and Wisler

Well, if we are to ever get close to the Cubs model, we needed assets. Other than Lucas Sims who continues to baffle, what pitchers could we have traded for hitting before the PURGE? Not much. At least we can deal from a position of strength almost. The aforementioned Miller, Jenkins, Fried, Folty and Wisler is a great start.

[Deester11]

And they now have the necessary currency to trade for a bat when one becomes available. This rebuild was never going to happen overnight. Braves could go into next season with a legitimate 8 starting pitchers:

Teheran
Wood
Miller
Folty
Perez
Wisler
Banuelos
Jenkins

And they may even sign a pitcher in the offseason as well so that they can trade from their stable. So if you want the Cubs way then it looks like the Braves are on that path now.

Beat me to it thethe

[thethe]

Sure - but your argument is that the Braves will use their assets to acquire offensive assets. This FO has only done the opposite so far

Thats because the rebuild is less than 1 year old. Come on Sturg...you are a smart guy. This is a multiple year plan and what they are doing now doesn't define what they will do for the next few years.

[chop2chip]

Everyone outside of the top 5-10 are lottery tickets, Allard included.

Well yes, but some are more likely than others hence 2nd round players having a higher rate of success than 3rd rounders and so on.

I'm okay with the draft. It just seems we took Saroka when he would have been there at 41, Riley when he could have been there a pick later and so on. If you have two picks in the first round, you hope that you can get two consensus first round talents.

I love the Allard pick. If he works out, then he alone makes this a great draft class.

[sturg33]

Thats because the rebuild is less than 1 year old. Come on Sturg...you are a smart guy. This is a multiple year plan and what they are doing now doesn't define what they will do for the next few years.

You are spouting off these assumptions as facts when that is silly. The whole offseason, many on this board were begging us to acquire offense with the folks we traded. Then this draft - we are begging for offense. It's pitching pitching pitching bc that's "the Braves way". We're living in the 90's again and hoping to find the next Maddux/Glavine/Smoltz

[50PoundHead]

Everyone outside of the top 5-10 are lottery tickets, Allard included.

Every draft is a lottery of sorts and every pick is a ticket in said lottery. JaMarcus Russell in the NFL draft. Larue Martin in the NBA draft. Matt Bush in the MLB draft. All three were the first player taken in their respective drafts.

This looks like a decent crop of kids. I'm not going to question picks per se, but the Minter pick is puzzling to me. The Riley pick is the most interesting. If he keeps his weight in check, he projects as a solid 3B prospect with pitching as a fallback. From what I've read is that he projected as a pitcher two years ago because his raw staff was/is outstanding, but he hasn't been able to hone it. Braves have had pretty good luck with two-way players. Klesko was more highly-regarded as a pitcher coming out of high school until he had an arm problem and Simmons was generally thought of as a better relief pitching prospect than shortstop.

[thethe]

You are spouting off these assumptions as facts when that is silly. The whole offseason, many on this board were begging us to acquire offense with the folks we traded. Then this draft - we are begging for offense. It's pitching pitching pitching bc that's "the Braves way". We're living in the 90's again and hoping to find the next Maddux/Glavine/Smoltz

Braves philosophy is to acquire a lot of pitching. Historically, they have used this pitching in many ways. One of which was to acquire hitters.

[nsacpi]

Every draft is a lottery of sorts and every pick is a ticket in said lottery. JaMarcus Russell in the NFL draft. Larue Martin in the NBA draft. Matt Bush in the MLB draft. All three were the first player taken in their respective drafts.

This looks like a decent crop of kids. I'm not going to question picks per se, but the Minter pick is puzzling to me. The Riley pick is the most interesting. If he keeps his weight in check, he projects as a solid 3B prospect with pitching as a fallback. From what I've read is that he projected as a pitcher two years ago because his raw staff was/is outstanding, but he hasn't been able to hone it. Braves have had pretty good luck with two-way players. Klesko was more highly-regarded as a pitcher coming out of high school until he had an arm problem and Simmons was generally thought of as a better relief pitching prospect than shortstop.

Some teams liked Freddie Freeman better as a pitcher.