Projecting the Braves in 2019+

[Enscheff]

Now that The Battery is complete and Kemp's contract will be off the books, the Braves will finally be able to have their Top 10 payroll. Taking into account 2017 MLB payrolls, and adjusting a bit for inflation, the Braves payroll in 2019 should be nearly $170M.

Projecting the 2019 roster:

C - Flowers or Grandall, 4 fWAR (including framing)
1B - Freeman, he will not decline like normal 1B because he is so athletic, 6 fWAR
2B - Albies, realistic comp of Altuve according to tehteh, 7 fWAR
3B - Machado, makes too much sense NOT to sign him, 6 fWAR
SS - Swanson, Larkin/Jeter comps, 5 fWAR
LF - Blackmon, he will LOVE playing for his hometown team, 6 fWAR
CF - Pache, declining Ender replaced by Kevin Pillar, 4 fWAR
RF - Acuna, Venezuelan Trout, 10 fWAR

SP1 - Folty, finally takes that next step to becoming Verlander, 6 fWAR
SP2 - Gohara, CC Sabathia clone, 6 fWAR
SP3 - Wright, some say Strasburg, some say Lackey, either way, 5 fWAR
SP4 - Newcomb, becomes that 5+ win pitcher tehteh projects, 5 fWAR
SP5 - Soroka, I think he's Derek Lowe, 4 fWAR

That rotation has good L/R balance, with Ian Anderson (the next Mike Mussina) and Allard (easy comp to Glavine since he doesn't throw very hard and "just knows how to pitch") waiting in AAA to back them up.

If my math is correct, that's 74 fWAR just from the lineup and rotation. Assuming the Braves can cobble together a decent BP and bench that produces ~5 fWAR, that's 79 total fWAR for the 25 man roster. Add that to 47 replacement level wins, and that's easily a 126 win team.

I'm sure 1-2 guys will slightly under-produce projections, and/or get hurt, so I'll revise the projected win total to 120 just to be safe.

That was one hell of a rebuild!!

[Jay212033]

I don't know how to take this post lol! But 2019 will be a really fun season.

[tomahawkchop]

Now that The Battery is complete and Kemp's contract will be off the books, the Braves will finally be able to have their Top 10 payroll. Taking into account 2017 MLB payrolls, and adjusting a bit for inflation, the Braves payroll in 2019 should be nearly $170M.

Projecting the 2019 roster:

C - Flowers or Grandall, 4 fWAR (including framing)
1B - Freeman, he will not decline like normal 1B because he is so athletic, 6 fWAR
2B - Albies, realistic comp of Altuve according to tehteh, 7 fWAR
3B - Machado, makes too much sense NOT to sign him, 6 fWAR
SS - Swanson, Larkin/Jeter comps, 5 fWAR
LF - Blackmon, he will LOVE playing for his hometown team, 6 fWAR
CF - Pache, declining Ender replaced by Kevin Pillar, 4 fWAR
RF - Acuna, Venezuelan Trout, 10 fWAR

SP1 - Folty, finally takes that next step to becoming Verlander, 6 fWAR
SP2 - Gohara, CC Sabathia clone, 6 fWAR
SP3 - Wright, some say Strasburg, some say Lackey, either way, 5 fWAR
SP4 - Newcomb, becomes that 5+ win pitcher tehteh projects, 5 fWAR
SP5 - Soroka, I think he's Derek Lowe, 4 fWAR

That rotation has good L/R balance, with Ian Anderson (the next Mike Mussina) and Allard (easy comp to Glavine since he doesn't throw very hard and "just knows how to pitch") waiting in AAA to back them up.

If my math is correct, that's 74 fWAR just from the lineup and rotation. Assuming the Braves can cobble together a decent BP and bench that produces ~5 fWAR, that's 79 total fWAR for the 25 man roster. Add that to 47 replacement level wins, and that's easily a 126 win team.

I'm sure 1-2 guys will slightly under-produce projections, and/or get hurt, so I'll revise the projected win total to 120 just to be safe.

That was one hell of a rebuild!!

I think your projected fWAR for Machado is a little high. The rest seem fine.

[nsacpi]

Now that The Battery is complete and Kemp's contract will be off the books, the Braves will finally be able to have their Top 10 payroll. Taking into account 2017 MLB payrolls, and adjusting a bit for inflation, the Braves payroll in 2019 should be nearly $170M.

Projecting the 2019 roster:

C - Flowers or Grandall, 4 fWAR (including framing)
1B - Freeman, he will not decline like normal 1B because he is so athletic, 6 fWAR
2B - Albies, realistic comp of Altuve according to tehteh, 7 fWAR
3B - Machado, makes too much sense NOT to sign him, 6 fWAR
SS - Swanson, Larkin/Jeter comps, 5 fWAR
LF - Blackmon, he will LOVE playing for his hometown team, 6 fWAR
CF - Pache, declining Ender replaced by Kevin Pillar, 4 fWAR
RF - Acuna, Venezuelan Trout, 10 fWAR

SP1 - Folty, finally takes that next step to becoming Verlander, 6 fWAR
SP2 - Gohara, CC Sabathia clone, 6 fWAR
SP3 - Wright, some say Strasburg, some say Lackey, either way, 5 fWAR
SP4 - Newcomb, becomes that 5+ win pitcher tehteh projects, 5 fWAR
SP5 - Soroka, I think he's Derek Lowe, 4 fWAR

That rotation has good L/R balance, with Ian Anderson (the next Mike Mussina) and Allard (easy comp to Glavine since he doesn't throw very hard and "just knows how to pitch") waiting in AAA to back them up.

If my math is correct, that's 74 fWAR just from the lineup and rotation. Assuming the Braves can cobble together a decent BP and bench that produces ~5 fWAR, that's 79 total fWAR for the 25 man roster. Add that to 47 replacement level wins, and that's easily a 126 win team.

I'm sure 1-2 guys will slightly under-produce projections, and/or get hurt, so I'll revise the projected win total to 120 just to be safe.

That was one hell of a rebuild!!

you're selling Soroka short...otherwise looks about right

[bravesfanMatt]

Why are we signing Manchado when we have Donaldson 2.0 in AAA. Dummies.

[nsacpi]

Why are we signing Manchado when we have Donaldson 2.0 in AAA. Dummies.

the plan includes trading away Donaldson 2 and other surplus players like Fried for the next batch of super prospects so that our farm system remains #1

[Enscheff]

Why are we signing Manchado when we have Donaldson 2.0 in AAA. Dummies.

Because I've been told power hitting 3B don't start hitting until they are older. Donaldson didn't break out until he was 27, and since that's the trajectory we are basing Riley's career on, the Braves can't wait 7 years for Riley to break out.

Riley will likely replace Machado at 3B in 2024 when he is ready to be an 8 fWAR star. Freeman will move to DH once the NL adopts the rule, and Machado will slide over to 1B to save his knees and allow him to continue to produce 5+ fWAR at the tail end of his 12 year $400M contract he signed with the Braves.

The Braves are set up too well NOT to win 1000+ games over the next decade.

[salmagundy]

Looks good, but there is one major over look.

Who is going to coach and manage that team. You put low level guys out there like Snitckers or Hernandez and you've wasted a great deal of talent.

At this stage of the game, I don't know of an answer as to who could/would fill those spots.

[chop2chip]

Mental midgetry at its finest

[Southcack77]

Please no Blackmon, he’s trash away from Coors.

I’ve got a Jermaine Dye comp on Isranel Wilson so it’s all good.

[UNCBlue012]

I could easily see us pulling a few small strings and landing Machado and Harper.

[Tapate50]

I can’t believe you took the time and typed all that out.

[AerchAngel]

April 1st is a few weeks away, Scheff.

On the other hand, if we can get within 15% of that in bWar, it is doable across the board, the only outlier is getting Machado.

[50PoundHead]

Why would they sign Machado? Super-utility guy?

[Horsehide Harry]

Why would they sign Machado? Super-utility guy?

I know this was intended to be a goof thread. But, it's really worth considering as the Braves are set to be coming out of their "rebuild."

So here's my real assessment:

C: Overpay to bring back Flowers and/or Suzuki (combined total 2 War)
1B: Freeman on the cliff of expected beginnings of age decline but not quite there yet and 2 years removed from FA (6 War)
2B: Albies second full year (3-4 War)
SS: Swanson third full year, close to the beginnings of real expense (2-3 War)
3B: Donaldson, the decline years (3 War)
RF: Acuna (3-4 War)
CF: Inciarte (3.5 War)
LF: Trade Acquisition that costs 2 of top 6 current prospects - let's call it Allard and Anderson (3 War)

SP: Folty (2 War)
SP: Teheran (2 War)
SP: Newk (2 War)
SP: Gohara (2-3 War)
SP: Soroka (2-3 War)

Pen and Bench 5 War

Total: somewhere between 40.5-45.5 War so potentially an 87.5-92.5 Win team

Everybody is happy. It looks like a successful rebuild and they are on their way to competitive greatness. Or are they?

Look at 2020:

C: Flowers and/or Suzuki (combined total 1.5 War)
1B: Freeman on the cliff of expected beginnings of age decline and 1 years removed from FA (5 War)
2B: Albies third full year (4 War)
SS: Swanson fourth full year, close to the beginnings of real expense (3 War)
3B: Donaldson, the decline years (2 War)
RF: Acuna second full year (4 War)
CF: Inciarte (3 War)
LF: Trade Acquisition from year before (3 War)

SP: Folty (2 War) but getting very expensive - likely gone replaced by Wright (2 War)
SP: Teheran (1 War)
SP: Newk (2 War)
SP: Gohara (3 War)
SP: Soroka (3 War)

Pen and Bench 5 War

(They make a deadline move to try and bring in needed help, trading away Touki and Muller.)

Total: somewhere about 41.5 War so potentially an 88.5 Win team

Look at 2021:

C: Flowers and/or Suzuki/Jackson (combined total 2 War)
1B: Freeman in age decline and headed to FA (4.5 War)
2B: Albies fourth full year getting expensive (4 War)
SS: Swanson fifth full year, getting expensive (3 War)
3B: Donaldson, the decline years (2 War)
RF: Acuna third full year (4 War)
CF: Inciarte (3 War)
LF: Trade Acquisition from 2019 (3 War)

SP: Wright (3 War)
SP: Wentz (2 War)
SP: Newk (2 War)
SP: Gohara (3 War)
SP: Soroka (3 War)

Pen and Bench 5 War

(They make a deadline move to try and bring in needed help, trading away Waters and Cruz.)

Total: somewhere about 43.5 War so potentially an 90.5 Win team

That's what I've been talking about building to Purgatory - not bad enough to obviously need to rebuild, not good enough to really win anything, but providing an illusion that things are going well.

You have to remember that:

1. The Braves are in International signee jail so you can't expect much help from that arena.
2. They will pick in much worse draft position because the record will be better.
3. The Farm will graduate players to the ML (as it should) and will be raided for needs for the supposed playoff "runs"
4. At this point you can't reasonably expect the payroll to be significantly different than it has been recently.
5. After 2021 Teheran will be gone, Folty will be gone, Donaldson (if he is signed) will either be gone or we will be wishing he was, Freeman will likely be in a decline but will likely either sign an extension or re-sign with Atlanta - because they need to sell jerseys. Inciarte will either be in decline and blocking or gone. Albies and Swanson will be within shouting distance of FA AND will be getting expensive for their play assuming they play well.

Essentially, the Braves have built in such a way that they will need a lot of luck to be really good like having a current young player (or two) develop into superstars and have some fringe guys like Riley, Jackson, Waters, Davidson, etc. develop into more than what they currently appear to be capable of being.

What I expect to happen is that they Braves will be reasonably good (85-92 win range) for about three years then be faced with another rebuild in 2022 or 2023.

[nsacpi]

90 wins on the expected win curve is purgatory?

ok

[Enscheff]

The Battery is doing so well the Braves will have a payroll of $160M+. I mean seriously, that place is PACKED!

That place is a gold mine. The only reason payroll went down this year is because the Braves didn't feel like signing any real FAs. Next offseason they will be motivated to win, and we will see them spend.

AA simply knew nothing about the Braves players, nor did he know how any available players would fit on the roster. He only knew about Dodgers players because he worked in LA and had no reason to know anything about the Braves. Once he has a year to learn about the Braves players he will be able to make additions to the team.

[bravesfanMatt]

The Battery is doing so well the Braves will have a payroll of $160M+. I mean seriously, that place is PACKED!

That place is a gold mine. The only reason payroll went down this year is because the Braves didn't feel like signing any real FAs. Next offseason they will be motivated to win, and we will see them spend.

AA simply knew nothing about the Braves players, nor did he know how any available players would fit on the roster. He only knew about Dodgers players because he worked in LA and had no reason to know anything about the Braves. Once he has a year to learn about the Braves players he will be able to make additions to the team.

Seems about right. Or close. Welcome aboard the pozzie train. It is nothing but candy and unicorn farts. Just know that if you act up and go negative we will boot you off the train.

[Freshmaker]

The Battery is doing so well the Braves will have a payroll of $160M+. I mean seriously, that place is PACKED!

That place is a gold mine. The only reason payroll went down this year is because the Braves didn't feel like signing any real FAs. Next offseason they will be motivated to win, and we will see them spend.

AA simply knew nothing about the Braves players, nor did he know how any available players would fit on the roster. He only knew about Dodgers players because he worked in LA and had no reason to know anything about the Braves. Once he has a year to learn about the Braves players he will be able to make additions to the team.

Well, it IS a gold mine, as evidenced by the $124M increase in revenue this past season. However, LM being LM, they are using any extra profit to pay down the STP and the new spring training facility. But hey!! In 2030 when all that’s paid off we will be ready to rock the FA market!

[Enscheff]

Well, it IS a gold mine, as evidenced by the $124M increase in revenue this past season. However, LM being LM, they are using any extra profit to pay down the STP and the new spring training facility. But hey!! In 2030 when all that’s paid off we will be ready to rock the FA market!

I was told by several very bright pseudo-accountants on these boards that all that extra revenue was proof that payroll would increase.

I'm going to go ahead and continue to listen to them, despite all evidence pointing to them not knowing anything....ever.