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Thread: 2019 Trade Deadline Thread:

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    Quote Originally Posted by BeanieAntics View Post
    It amazes how many MLB writers are completely unqualified to write about certain inner workings of the MLB. The idea that Bumgarner and Smith would definitely cost us a 60 FV outfield prospect is insane. Its sounds like something a casual fan would say just because they remember Bumgarner having that amazing postseason. They don't know his contract situation, his advanced metrics, the fact that we're on his NTC. The sad part is that Bowman is equipped with all that knowledge and still manages to have consistently terrible takes like that.
    I've always looked at Bowman as someone who writes fluff to appeal to the common fan. His stuff really isn't targeted to the die hard, knowledgeable fans of this board.

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    Quote Originally Posted by NYCBrave View Post
    I've always looked at Bowman as someone who writes fluff to appeal to the common fan. His stuff really isn't targeted to the die hard, knowledgeable fans of this board.
    He’s still misleading the hypothetical “common fan” by dropping insane nuggets like “Bumgarner+Smith=Pache/Waters”. I struggle to have reason to believe that the Giants’ new FO would be that dumb.
    "For all his tattooings he was on the whole a clean, comely looking cannibal."

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    Quote Originally Posted by jpx7 View Post
    He’s still misleading the hypothetical “common fan” by dropping insane nuggets like “Bumgarner+Smith=Pache/Waters”. I struggle to have reason to believe that the Giants’ new FO would be that dumb.
    And see that's just the thing. The majority of fans don't know any better, so they will find it believable.

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    Expects Yuge Games nsacpi's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by NYCBrave View Post
    And see that's just the thing. The majority of fans don't know any better, so they will find it believable.
    Yeah. He says I have reason to believe and they believe.

    It is hard to believe.
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    Bowman is a hypnotist and reason to believe is his trigger phrase. It's all making sense now.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    I have reason to believe Bowman is overestimating the trade value of Smith and Bumgarner.
    Packaging those two together is probably their best chance of getting a real prospect out of them, but it won't be Pache or Waters.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    Packaging those two together is probably their best chance of getting a real prospect out of them, but it won't be Pache or Waters.
    I suspect this is how the Giants play it. Similarly it would be smart for the Blue Jays to see if they can extract a single higher rated prospect for Stroman and Giles.

    For us it might be smarter to go after Watson and make a trade with another team for a starting pitcher. I'd be happy with Wheeler and Watson. Maybe give up Muller for Wheeler and Davidson for Watson.
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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    I suspect this is how the Giants play it. Similarly it would be smart for the Blue Jays to see if they can extract a single higher rated prospect for Stroman and Giles.

    For us it might be smarter to go after Watson and make a trade with another team for a starting pitcher. I'd be happy with Wheeler and Watson. Maybe give up Muller for Wheeler and Davidson for Watson.
    I'd rather try em both in the pen down the stretch than send them packing. Especially Tuck D.
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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    I suspect this is how the Giants play it. Similarly it would be smart for the Blue Jays to see if they can extract a single higher rated prospect for Stroman and Giles.

    For us it might be smarter to go after Watson and make a trade with another team for a starting pitcher. I'd be happy with Wheeler and Watson. Maybe give up Muller for Wheeler and Davidson for Watson.
    the last power outage took out half of my reliever numbers. Rat farts!

    By memory, I'm not sure Watson even qualifies as a leverage guy at this point. I'm pretty sure I had him lumped in with the middle relievers. Good enough to help the Braves pen, but not a primary acquisition.

    K rate is lacking.

    ....

    there is no way I would trade Muller for any rentals and Davidson is a clear overpay for Watson.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    the last power outage took out half of my reliever numbers. Rat farts!

    By memory, I'm not sure Watson even qualifies as a leverage guy at this point. I'm pretty sure I had him lumped in with the middle relievers. Good enough to help the Braves pen, but not a primary acquisition.

    K rate is lacking.

    ....

    there is no way I would trade Muller for any rentals and Davidson is a clear overpay for Watson.
    He's struggled against RHH this year (4.80 xFIP). Still very good against lefties (3.18)

    Would be an upgrade over Blevins: 4.93 xFIP against RHH and 4.77 xFIP against LHH.

    Oh I agree those are overpays. But I think this is going to be the nature of the beast at the trade deadline this year for teams looking for pitching.
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    Yeah we're almost assuredly going to have to overpay with so many teams in contention. Just going to have to brace ourselves - any of the names mentioned is going to cost more than what we'd like

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    I like Davidson, but for me he’s easily in the Zimmermann-type category of guys-I-like-but-would-definitely-move-in-a-fair-deal. Muller’s obviously in a rung up, but his command concerns (reliever risk) are enough that I could swallow the loss for a legit rotational upgrade.
    "For all his tattooings he was on the whole a clean, comely looking cannibal."

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    Quote Originally Posted by jpx7 View Post
    I like Davidson, but for me he’s easily in the Zimmermann-type category of guys-I-like-but-would-definitely-move-in-a-fair-deal. Muller’s obviously in a rung up, but his command concerns (reliever risk) are enough that I could swallow the loss for a legit rotational upgrade.
    speaking of, Zimmermann has pitched quite well in AA for Baltimore.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Super View Post
    speaking of, Zimmermann has pitched quite well in AA for Baltimore.
    He’s the only guy Anthopoulos traded last summer that I really thought had a good chance to contribute MLB value down the line. But, like Davidson, he’s an older prospect with (seemingly) limited absolute ceiling (plus the usual pitcher bust risks), so he’s the exact sort of player you have to be willing to trade for upgrades while still relentlessly pursuing value.

    Trey Harris is a position player guy this year who I think fits that mould (à la JCE last year), though Harris’s deficits are very different from JCE’s.
    "For all his tattooings he was on the whole a clean, comely looking cannibal."

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    Quote Originally Posted by jpx7 View Post
    I like Davidson, but for me he’s easily in the Zimmermann-type category of guys-I-like-but-would-definitely-move-in-a-fair-deal. Muller’s obviously in a rung up, but his command concerns (reliever risk) are enough that I could swallow the loss for a legit rotational upgrade.
    Davidson is having a very good season at age 23 in AA pitching in a ballpark that favors pitchers in a league that isn't using the juiced balls. I think we have quite a few pitchers with similar profiles. Guys who will likely make it to the majors and have an outside shot to be successful major league starting pitchers. I would rank him slightly behind a bunch of similar prospects (Muller, Ynoa, Wentz, Weigel). I'm not sure I would put him ahead of de la Cruz and Allard.
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    Quote Originally Posted by jpx7 View Post
    He’s the only guy Anthopoulos traded last summer that I really thought had a good chance to contribute MLB value down the line. But, like Davidson, he’s an older prospect with (seemingly) limited absolute ceiling (plus the usual pitcher bust risks), so he’s the exact sort of player you have to be willing to trade for upgrades while still relentlessly pursuing value.

    Trey Harris is a position player guy this year who I think fits that mould (à la JCE last year), though Harris’s deficits are very different from JCE’s.
    I think Davidson has more upside than Zimmermann. The guy in our system who is more similar to Zimmermann is Kingham.
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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    I think Davidson has more upside than Zimmermann. The guy in our system who is more similar to Zimmermann is Kingham.
    I was just about to post that clarifying addendum—I think Davidson, in 2019, is a better prospect than Zimmermann was in 2018: he’s pitching a level up, at the same age Zimmermann was last year, he’s pitching better than Zimmermann is this year at the same level, and reports are the cutter is a real weapon. But I’d still rank them in the same relative taxon.

    For what it’s worth, just as I think Davidson’s marginally better than Zimmermann as a prospect, I think Zimmermann is a little more marginally better than Kingham (who’s really struggled with consistency). But they’re all comfortably tradeable in deals that bring real improvements to Atlanta.
    "For all his tattooings he was on the whole a clean, comely looking cannibal."

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    Quote Originally Posted by jpx7 View Post
    I was just about to post that clarifying addendum—I think Davidson, in 2019, is a better prospect than Zimmermann was in 2018: he’s pitching a level up, at the same age Zimmermann was last year, he’s pitching better than Zimmermann is this year at the same level, and reports are the cutter is a real weapon. But I’d still rank them in the same relative taxon.

    For what it’s worth, just as I think Davidson’s marginally better than Zimmermann as a prospect, I think Zimmermann is a little more marginally better than Kingham (who’s really struggled with consistency). But they’re all comfortably tradeable in deals that bring real improvements to Atlanta.
    Yeah I would agree

    Davidson circa 2019 slightly better than Zimmermann circa 2018 who in turn is slightly better than Kingham circa 2019.
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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    He's struggled against RHH this year (4.80 xFIP). Still very good against lefties (3.18)

    Would be an upgrade over Blevins: 4.93 xFIP against RHH and 4.77 xFIP against LHH.

    Oh I agree those are overpays. But I think this is going to be the nature of the beast at the trade deadline this year for teams looking for pitching.

    I think Watson is a veteran middle reliever that doesn't strike anyone out any more. I do not think he will be in demand, particularly.

    I agree he's better than Blevins though and would be a worthy acquisition. Just should not cost anything.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jpx7 View Post
    I like Davidson, but for me he’s easily in the Zimmermann-type category of guys-I-like-but-would-definitely-move-in-a-fair-deal. Muller’s obviously in a rung up, but his command concerns (reliever risk) are enough that I could swallow the loss for a legit rotational upgrade.

    I just don't think the Braves should have to give up someone in the top 30 for a middle reliever rental.

    I think Davidson is very disposable, but I'm aim to get more than Watson out of him. And I think he's more of a prospect than Zimmerman. He seems at the minimum like someone who might really play up in the pen if he's not a back end starter for someone.

    I think the minor league reliever list is a better place to look for in targeting someone like Watson. Something entirely non-consequential.

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