see the glass half empty. Certainly, need stronger staff on the mound. But for all the problems we could still win 75 games even with a bad pen and inconsistent starters. Not to mention losing our best player for 25% of the season. Adams was lightning in a bottle as the perfect replacement but still lost Freeman. Make a handful of solid moves and that 75 becomes 85 next year.
On balance I see this past season as a positive one. Our top prospects did well as a group. A couple of them (Acuna and Gohara) really improved their stock. Camargo was a pleasant surprise. Some promising arms emerged in the pen (Minter, Freeman, Viz, Ramirez, Winkler).
Among the guys at the major league level, we saw Freddie move up to elite or near elite level hitting. We also got very strong production from our catchers who will be back next year.
I don't want to overlook the disappointments. Swanson played replacement level baseball and is finishing on a poor note. Teheran had a significant dip in form. His strong finish only partly reduces concerns about his effectiveness moving forward. The "first wave" starting pitching prospects have generally disappointed.
But on balance we made progress in moving toward being a contending team. It isn't happening at warp speed, but I'm still optimistic we will have a relatively long contending window.
I do have some concerns that the FO is feeling pressure to accelerate the rebuild. I think the risk is that accelerating the rebuild will come at the cost of reducing the length of the window of contention.
I really hope they avoid the temptation to go after someone like Archer or Fulmer. Not because those guys are not great pitchers. But because the cost likely will be astronomical. The rumored willingness to include Albies in a trade for Fulmer was worrisome.
Last edited by nsacpi; 09-23-2017 at 11:18 PM.
"I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."
"I am your retribution."
As the board's dansby apologist, I'm gonna stick up for him some. Since his return back up in August, he's .280/.385/.384 (not counting tonight's 2-4). He's also put up 0.8 fWAR. I wouldn't say he's finishing poorly. He's certainly not had the year I expected thoughOriginally Posted by nsacpi
You say for all the problems we could still win 75 games. That's what the majority of the nega Braves projected. And I think it's a lot harder to go from 75 wins to 85 than you realize. The MLB team made some positive strides but it's more than likely still a couple of years away. It really depends on how quickly the rotation shores us with our young guys.
Colorado, Arizona, and Minnesota did it this season
Clearly it has happened and will happen in the future. But it will take improvement by several young players, making the right off season moves via FA and or trades, and having the young rotation step up and be good. All while not experiencing any set backs in other areas. Can this happen? Yes. Is there a good chance of that happening? I personally don't see it.
But that's a statement hard to make because we don't know what those moves might be.
If the FO really moves Albies for a SP and thinks Camargo can handle 2B duties for the team, then I just can't. It would be Chris Johnson part II without the extension.
If the FO trades Albies then they should all line up for a good wiener punch and then be fired.
I think people underestimate how much luck is involved each season. Colorado is outperforming its second and third order percentages by 5-6 wins and the Twins by 4. Arizona is different. I think they are benefiting from some guys come back from injury and Greinke returning to form.
Colorado and the Twins reinforce a point that I've argued over the years. You don't have to project to be a 90 win team for it to be a good idea to reinforce your chances of winning in any given season. As long as you'r projected in the high 70s or better along the win curve, you have a significant chance of making the playoffs. After that it is a crapshoot. But you don't want to punt or rebuild as long as your team is in that range.
And of course once the season is underway, you need to be realistic about your chances as the actual wins and losses come in. That cuts both ways. I think the Twins gave up on the season a little around the deadline, when they dealt away Garcia.
The Brewers are another team that is going to improve by about 10 wins, some of it due to "luck." It doesn't look like they will make the playoffs but it seems to me their fans really enjoyed the team's play this season. Attendance improved by 4,000 per game.
Last edited by nsacpi; 09-24-2017 at 09:23 AM.
"I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."
"I am your retribution."
This! I'll lead the charge!
I see it this way, we are 3 years into what was to be a 5 year rebuild, did it go exactly as hoped for 2017? No, but the mistakes made were the signing of 3 free agent pitchers to start the year (2 of them way to old). Yes Blair and Wisler were/are disappointments, as for Swanson I am going to give him a little slack as the pressure put upon him to start the year would have made it tough on anyone. He was the "odds on favorite" for rookie of the year, he was the new face of the Braves and on and on. A lot to handle so early in his career. That said he has been ok since his return from the minors, I think he will be just fine.
I am excited by Gohara, Newcomb, and I still like Fried. Sims I am not sure, but he might be a long man in the pen with spot starts. As for Teheran, I feel he will be traded this off season, and Folty needs to figure out how to control his emotions on the mound, he has the stuff, just not the head. He reminds me of Strausburg in that manner, both seem to pout on the mound at times. Still I say it takes a minimum of a year and a half for a pitcher to finally get it or not, So time table is running on some.
As for the pen, I love what I see in Freeman, Winkler, Ramirez, and Minter, I am not however sold on Viz as a permanent closer, not sure why on the last one, but I am not. Would love to see our boy come home in 2019 (Kimbrel)
Sometime next year I figure we may see Soroka and Allard in Atlanta, I am excited by what those 2 have been doing in the minors. And then of course there is Acuna, hard NOT to be impressed by what he has shown.
If Acuna pushes making the team in 2018, and you can't trade one of Kemp/Markakis, then the answer is to Platoon Kemp/Markakis in LF put Acuna in right. 3B I am not sold on Camargo, or Ruiz. But we might be stuck with a platoon there as well, as I see no one I would be willing to pay big money to come in at 3B.
As for 2018, this is the year I really hope to see big improvement, in other words a record above .500, I never thought we would be a playoff team until 2019 anyway. Once 2020 hits I see a team that will compete year in and year out for some time. WHat I do not want to see is making a move for a less than ace pitcher, and there just are not many of those available, Fulmer and Archer are not aces, now a Bumgardner ....
I am not that surprised by the Twins' performance. Very good young core of players that have all raised their game together. They have graduated a ton of really good players over the past three or four years. I actually projected them to win the division in 2016 because I thought the same core would perform better last year and I never saw Cleveland becoming the team it has become. Twins' problem is pitching. Question marks up and down the pitching staff outside of Santana and Berrios.
I doubt the same thing could happen to us next year given our current set of players because our younger guys will have the same issues the Twins' young core had in 2016. I think the pitching could be better and with Albies and Camargo/Ruiz likely replacing Phillips and Garcia respectively, we will be more athletic. I'm still thinking 2020 will be the year when things start coming together.
Sano and Buxton are two truly special prospects, and most everyone knew that. No one saw Max Kepler coming until a year ago, and their best young pitching is either not there yet or in injury rehab. Twins have a lot to like.
The offseason moves I predict:
1) Matt Adams is traded, probably at winter meetings
2) Wisler is dropped off the 40-man
3) Johnson (Joe, maybe Micah too) is DFA
4) Markakis is not dealt until Spring. Kemp can't be traded.
5) R.A. Dickey will retire!
6) One of Braves top pitching prospects will be traded.
That's not a lot, all things considered.
Twins are in a position where they are unlikely to be very good over the next few years BUT may work there way into playoff position simply because the rest of their division is going to be horrible for years outside of Cleveland and Cleveland has areas where they are getting some age. The WS are in the middle of a 5 year rebuild. Detroit is an ancient team with a number of bad contracts and at the beginning of a rebuild. KC is a plane on fire, engines out and wings coming off. They are going to leave a big hole in the earth soon.
Minnesota's big problem is that they fell for the thinking that signing a marginal player who is a home town boy as your franchise player was a good idea. Mauer is not someone that you commit 20-25% of your payroll to, even when he was young and more productive. To a certain extent KC did the same thing with Alex Gordon and it's costing them now.
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