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Thread: The Reverse Pennant Chase

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    Have a good time in Minnesota or Cincinnati, Hunter Greene. We sure would've loved you in Atlanta.

    Go after Jordon Adell now?

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    Quote Originally Posted by IslandBrave View Post
    Winning games with a young team (especially beating the teams we've beaten lately will have a bigger effect of the franchise's future than potentially picking 2 spots lower in a draft that doesn't have a clear top tier.
    no, it won't.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Preacher View Post
    such a damn shame.

    Look I'm not just trying to piss and moan, but I think the organization is pissing this away. There are ways to 'rest' and 'limit' your better/hotter players.

    It's OK to try and punt a couple games to ensure a top-3 pick.
    Maybe our true team talent isn't that of a top 3 pick?

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    Expects Yuge Games nsacpi's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    Maybe our true team talent isn't that of a top 3 pick?
    Season record is a pretty fair indication for us. We underperformed our talent substantially in the first half, and overperformed in the second.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    no, it won't.
    It absolutely does. 1 player from this draft isn't going to significantly help this franchise.

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    Quote Originally Posted by IslandBrave View Post
    It absolutely does. 1 player from this draft isn't going to significantly help this franchise.
    It isn't only one player, it is the larger bonus pool which could result in several more higher upside players. Also, let's say that someone develops into a clear #1 over the next year. Or one or two players separate from the pack. Or the difference making hitter everyone wants is gone when Atlanta picks (which is what happened in the last draft). It's just better to pick #1 in general.

    There is no real evidence that a 97 loss team playing better at the end of the season has much to do with its performance the following season.

    If watching some wins at the end of the year and avoiding 100 losses makes you feel better, then I can understand that. But I don't think it does anything positive for the future of the team.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post

    There is no real evidence that a 97 loss team playing better at the end of the season has much to do with its performance the following season.
    Actually second half record (relative to the first half) has been shown to be a statistically significant predictor of how much a team improves or declines in the following season.

    At the same time I don't want to exaggerate the effect it should have on people's thinking. If you thought the Braves projected to be a 75 win team in 2017 a few months ago, now you should be thinking along the lines of 78 on the expected win curve. You can justify adding about 0.5 WAR to 2017 projections for Freeman, Kemp, Inciarte, Markakis, Garcia and Swanson based on the last couple months.
    Last edited by nsacpi; 09-24-2016 at 09:58 AM.

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    I think we'll lose one of these against the Marlins, win against the Phillies, and get swept by the Tigers. So go 4-4, which means 95 losses. So I guess I'm thinking 3rd to 5th pick.

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    Plus, to go along with more money and better drafting positions in each round, the Braves would win tiebreakers in the 2017 season for the 2018 draft over all teams that had a better record than them in the 2016 season. As of right now, only Minnesota would win a tiebreaker if serving the same record as Atlanta. Based on this winning streak and what's ahead, Atlanta could easily fall behind Cincinnati, San Diego, Arizona, Tampa Bay, LAA, Oakland, etc.

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    Quote Originally Posted by WaitingFor2017 View Post
    Plus, to go along with more money and better drafting positions in each round, the Braves would win tiebreakers in the 2017 season for the 2018 draft over all teams that had a better record than them in the 2016 season. As of right now, only Minnesota would win a tiebreaker if serving the same record as Atlanta. Based on this winning streak and what's ahead, Atlanta could easily fall behind Cincinnati, San Diego, Arizona, Tampa Bay, LAA, Oakland, etc.
    As long as we lose 4 games in some fashion, we should be fine. Tigers are still decent. Phillies magically beat us, usually.

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    Quote Originally Posted by WaitingFor2017 View Post
    Plus, to go along with more money and better drafting positions in each round, the Braves would win tiebreakers in the 2017 season for the 2018 draft over all teams that had a better record than them in the 2016 season. As of right now, only Minnesota would win a tiebreaker if serving the same record as Atlanta. Based on this winning streak and what's ahead, Atlanta could easily fall behind Cincinnati, San Diego, Arizona, Tampa Bay, LAA, Oakland, etc.
    This means virtually nothing, though.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ventura's Stolen Bases View Post
    As long as we lose 4 games in some fashion, we should be fine. Tigers are still decent. Phillies magically beat us, usually.
    Tigers are fighting for a wild card spot. They will go all out.

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    Winning streaks only last so long. We'll lose a couple back to back out of the next 8. 4-4 should get us a top 3 pick

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    I've said all along after we didn't move many players at the deadline and added Kemp, that we would go on a steak near the end...and end up with around the 5th. I wish I was wrong, but we will be nowhere near the #2 pick.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Hudson2 View Post
    Winning streaks only last so long. We'll lose a couple back to back out of the next 8. 4-4 should get us a top 3 pick
    This. After our 6-game win streak, we then lost 8 of our next 10.

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    Happy with the team moving in the right direction, Kemp looks like a great pickup if we can add some bats this winter.

    But just hope we can somehow get a top 3 pick and not be around 7-10.

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    Quote Originally Posted by smootness View Post
    This. After our 6-game win streak, we then lost 8 of our next 10.
    Yeah, this. It might not be that dramatic, but we're not going to stay hot enough to get out of the top 3-4.

    I was kinda reluctantly on #teamtank, but I find that I'm happier with the way the team has played down the stretch. We're not going to miss out on a generational talent at 1 or 2.

    On the other hand, I'm a little chuffed that NOW we can win in September.

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    With 6 games remaining, we will pick anywhere from 2 to 8.

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    Quote Originally Posted by skillet View Post
    With 6 games remaining, we will pick anywhere from 2 to 8.
    Cincy has a 2 game winning streak helping us out.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ventura's Stolen Bases View Post
    Cincy has a 2 game winning streak helping us out.
    If MLB doesn't reschedule the Marlins game, that half game could end up huge either way.

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