Vomit.
But I like that these moves (Colon/Dickey) were executed quickly, and that SP is basically wrapped up at this point in a market that it going to be searching for it all winter.
Vomit.
But I like that these moves (Colon/Dickey) were executed quickly, and that SP is basically wrapped up at this point in a market that it going to be searching for it all winter.
Last edited by Hawk; 11-11-2016 at 12:35 PM.
Tapate50 (11-14-2016)
You may very well be right. I see it more likely to be a good setup for Wisler/Newcomb than Wisler/Blair, but your point is correct.Originally Posted by dak
It seems to me that these veteran mid-rotation type free agents should be viewed in two ways. First, to provide some stability to the 2017 rotation. Second, as assets to be used later in further upgrades. Dickey serves that purpose with the option year. If he pitches well for half of the season but we find ourselves as sellers at mid-season, he will have significant value. Colon on a one-year deal will have much less value even if he pitches well. I would rather we tried to sign guys like Cashner and Volquez on two-year deals with an option for a third year. Or even three year deals. I think we could have gotten one of those guys on a deal along those lines at an AAV of no more than the $12.5M we are going to pay Colon.
I have often been described as a glass half empty person, but I am a little puzzled about the absolutely surety that most of this board holds regarding the impossibility of fielding a "competitive" team in 2017. I think the consensus definition of a competitive team is one that could reasonably expected to finish around .500, therefore being a team that could possibly make the playoffs if everything breaks right. Am I completely off base with my definition?
If not, considering that the 2016 Braves that were considered by many to be worse than garbage still played at the "competitive" level for the second half, why is it impossible for them to compete in 2017? I don't mean "to be a lock" to make the playoffs, just that there is a chance (better than the Dumb and Dumber chance) that they might compete.
clvclv (11-11-2016)
I like these signings. I'm not ecstatic over them, mind you, but getting 380-400 innings of average to slightly above average pitching for below the current WAR/$ ratio and on one-year commitments (Dickey has team option) in an otherwise weak pitching FA class is perfectly tolerable for a rebuilding team trying to bridge to 2018. These are exactly the kind of moves we should be making instead of giving up the farm for pitchers with 1-2 years left on their contract (note I'm not talking about Chris Archer here - he's obviously an ace under control for several seasons and would be someone I'd be thrilled to have and part with significant prospect talent to acquire. )
Yes these aren't the sexiest of signings, but they are good signings given context.
FYI - fun fact - Bartolo Colon made his MLB debut when Turner Field *opened*. Now he's going to help open the new park. As someone on twitter noted, he's outlasted a stadium.
clvclv (11-12-2016)
Part of it is everyone has a slightly different definition of "competitive" or "contending." It has been my belief that we are at 80-85 on the expected win curve. The Dickey and Colon signings do not change this. I would use the word competitive to describe any team at that location on the expected win curve. But as I said other people use the word in different ways.
I like both signings. Getting both out of the way this early saves us money on a weak market but also allows us to focus our attention in other areas knowing our rotation is at least improved.
Now I don't expect an archer or sale deal. Coppy said they weren't out there looking to make those kind of deals.
But if we can get a good defensive catcher to catch Dickey and a good bench guy we will be okay.
I don't see Cashner or Volquez getting contracts that lucrative, though I do like both as bounce-back candidates. As it relates to Colon and Dickey, I think the best approach is only guaranteeing 1 year (if you can get guys like this to add an option with a cheap buy-out, that's even better). On guys like Cashner and Volquez where you're betting on a bounce-back, I think getting that 2 year commitment is more advantageous. I'm a little more on the risk-averse side, so that drives my preference for the Colon / Dickey approach. Both seem to be good strategies though for the Braves current situation.
No
To me, an 80-85 win curve is only as good as the progression from there that you hope to see in coming years. 80-85 wins really doesn't get you anywhere by itself. This year in the NL, the two WC teams both had 87 wins. The AL it was 89. In 2015 in the AL it was 86 for the Astros, 87 for Yanks. The NL was 97 and 98 with the Cubs and Pirates. In 2014 NL was 88. AL it was 88 & 89. In 2013 AL was 92, NL was 90 & 94.
80-85 wins is essentially .500 baseball. Going there means something IF it is a journey to 90 wins or 95 or better yet 100. It really means nothing more than 75 wins in the long view if it doesn't lead to more wins.
My problem with building an 80-85 win team in 2017 is that to do so in the way the Braves are doing it doesn't move the needle in future years. Guys like Colon, Dickey, Johnson, Markakis, Kemp, Flowers are all at the back end of their careers, some more than others. They are not the future of the franchise by any means. They don't help 80-85 wins turn into 90-95 wins except as placeholders in hopes that the young talent coming up will eventually be the vehicle that carries the team forward. But, that's no different than having placeholders in place that lead to 70-75 wins as opposed to 80-85 except for fan perception, the ability of fans to convince themselves that what they are seeing is not fool's gold, but part of the forward progress to the promised land.
To me, it has always been about a realistic target date Range of when the team could realistically be expected to begin to be good and carry that forward to greatness. I think that date is 2018, 2019 now as opposed to 2017, 2018 because the young pitching didn't develop this last year as quickly as we all had hoped.
Good to see that not everybody goes along with the prevailing board mentality.
What I like about signing Dickey and Colon is those guys are innings eaters. Part of the problem for the bullpen in 2016 was the rotation, especially Wisler, Blair, and to a lesser degree Folty, they were not going deep into games and making the pen work more. These guys can go deeper into games and take some workload off the bullpen.
Chopping With The Braves And Rolling With The Tide
You are right. The Braves gave 60 starts to wannabes and nobodys in 2016. In those 60 starts the starters gave 286 1/3 innings which comes out to 4.71 innings per start. Should see dramatic improvement in that area.
Going to be rough working at The Varsity this summer
Tapate50 (11-14-2016)
$12 million for Colon seems too much, but we shall see.
I kidded all offseason that we'd sign Colon, now it's reality.
Does the guy have anything left, though, is the main question I have...I mean he will be 44 years old.
Yes I know he's been solid the past couple years for the Mets, but eventually the guy is going to lose it.
I think it's a risky 12.5 million investment when you look at it from that perspective. Yes I realize it's only a one year deal but the guy is closing in on that 9th live.
190 innings and 2-3 WAR costs a lot more than 12 million. The only reason Colon is that cheap is because he's 40+
If he loses it the Braves are out 12.5 million for 1 year and that it. Considering most other rotation upgrades would cost prospects or multiple years @ FA dollars I am certainly fine with this risk.
This thread is sorely lacking Bartolo .gifs right now. Allow me to rectify this:
Best Braves signing in years even if he's awful.
Last edited by mqt; 11-11-2016 at 07:57 PM.
clvclv (11-12-2016)
Posting Permissions
Reply With Quote
