We did give up something. His big contract is definitely something.Originally Posted by TheBravos
I'm fine with the move, but you can't argue we got him for free.
We did give up something. His big contract is definitely something.
I'm fine with the move, but you can't argue we got him for free.
Braves1976 (02-01-2017)
Ahh yes, rating a player based on HR and RBI. How very 1980s of you!
Me too. he helped the offense and the Braves won more games (damnit).. But his big contract is exactly why I hope he mashes again this year and we can trade him to an AL club. We will either eat some of his contract and get something in return or trade his contract for a prospect equivalent to a PTBNL.. And I believe the FO will trade him if he has that value next off season. Like others have said, 18 million can buy you something different that gives better WAR/$. If kemp can put up a 3+ oWar, then he has value to an AL club..even at 18 million..
We also had to pay him and make him put on the leather looking thing.
"Yes, I did think Aldrich was good UNTIL I SAW HIM PLAY. "- thethe
Really? Did you see the contract Bautista signed? Are you sure Kemp has value to an AL club at $18M per year when Bautista couldn't even get that much?
Braves1976 (02-01-2017)
If he can put up 3+ oWAR and make it look like he's ready to do it for a few more years, then I think he definitely would have that value. Bautista is 35, didn't even put up 2 oWAR last year, and has a history of being a tool. Kemp will be 3 years younger, and while he doesn't have the track record of Bautista, I think he could absolutely have that kind of value as a DH. Again, though that's if he puts up 3+ oWAR and it doesn't look like a fluke. I don't think that's very likely.
lol.. Joey Bats is 36 and put up a 1 WAR year last year. I think that had more to do with it.
Ortiz made $16M per year as a DH, and he is twice the hitter Kemp is.
The "sluggers" on the FA market right now are suffering from an MLB-wide devaluation of guys that can't play defense. It has affected everyone from Moss to Encarnacion to Bautista to Napoli.
There is nothing Kemp could do next year that will make other teams value him at $18M per season.
With Kemp we can't let the perfect be the enemy of the good. Kemp represented a fairly large improvement for this club. While having him put up good defense would be ideal, we can't overlook the fact that this lineup is entirely different with him. He's not a SVOD. He might not be ideal but he's better than a lot of other options.
When Ortiz signed a 2-year deal after 2012, his previous 5 years he had OPS'd at under .900, he averaged about 2.5 oWAR (though with the most recent 2 seasons being the best), and was going into his age 37 season. When he signed again, he was going into his age 39 season. I'm not sure using him as a gauge is the best tool.
Matt Kemp (fat 80's guy)
18 mil
.268
35 HR's
108 RBI
Jason Heyward (WAR God)
21.5 mil
.230
7 HR's
49 RBI
That's about 60 more runs batted in. I'm just a 80's guy and my math might be funny, I don't think Kemp gave up 60 extra runs off defense.
You have to have a balanced team. Everyone has strength and weaknesses. The Braves meshed well as a team near the end of the year because they complimented each other. This is not fantasy baseball. I watched the team before and after Kemp arrived. It was completely different. I will say I didn't think he would make a lick of difference and we were adding payroll for NOTHING. I'm big enough to admit I was wrong. I watched almost every game last year. It was a BIG difference.
So bottom line is you think Kemp will be worth 2/36 next offseason and some AL club will be willing to trade for him?
EE only got 3/60, and he is also twice the hitter Kemp is or ever will be again.
A cursory look at what's happening on the current FA market should tell you that is literally impossible.
There is an entire thread literally 1/4" above/below this one where we have been discussing the fact that Kemp almost certainly gave up 60 runs on defense compared to Heyward.
And yes, the stats you just listed prove beyond all doubt you have no idea how to evaluate baseball player value.
I think EE is a better comp. yes I agree EE is better hitter (which is why I said, Kemp needs to OPS .850+).. but EE just signed 3 year with 4 option for roughly a little over 19 per.. I think Kemp falls into that range and would cost very little in return for a team trading for him.
**good lord I can't type today.
Last edited by bravesfanMatt; 01-31-2017 at 01:13 PM.
No, I don't think that will happen. I think it's quite unlikely. But I do think it's possible.
Don't fall into the trap of making imprecise evaluations you jump on others for. Encarnacion has been roughly 'twice' the hitter Kemp has been since 2014, yes. Is he twice the hitter Kemp ever will be again? Probably, but we don't know that. Kemp was worth 3.7 oWAR in 2014 and has easily the best offensive season either of the two has ever put up, though it happened 5 years ago and Kemp clearly isn't going to get back to that level. But he did play to a 3+ oWAR level for Atlanta in 56 games last year. You may think it will be difficult for him to continue that, as I do, but it at least seems possible.
I think Trumbo is the best comp of all the power-and-nothing-else FA this offseason - and he got 3 years at 12.5 million per, despite being younger and having played better than Kemp the last two seasons.
Trumbo is a decent comp for what Kemp has been the last couple years. But that's not what we're talking about. All of this is predicated on the idea that Kemp might regain some of his previous offensive production and see his value rise.
I would agree with this. Trumbo is about what we could expect offensively out of Kemp and at 2.2 WAR last year is the best possible scenario for him.
Not bad.. Trumbo is not better than Kemp though. But I would agree Kemp is closer to Trumbo than he is EE.. so, to me, he lies somewhere in the 15 to 16.5 range.. <--as a DH..
If we get 2.2 WAR from Kemp, we are very happy. I am hoping for more in the 3.5 oWAR range, which is what Smooth and I are talking about. If he flashes that, then he becomes more enticing to AL clubs.
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