SATURDAY MINORS FINAL:X 4/28/18: Much badness in high minors

[thewupk]

Allard milb career...

264.2 ip 235 h 88 er 77 bb 254 k
Era = 2.99
Whip = 1.18
BAA = .240

He is 20, and he is in AAA and maintaining these career numbers... little better at the moment. Sorry, but I don't see the whole bunch better options out there in our system.

In the minors sometimes the process is graded over the results.

[msstate7]

In the minors sometimes the process is graded over the results.

At some point, the fact no one really hits him and he is younger than this competition has to mean something. He is our LH greinke... his milb numbers look very similar too.

[smootness]

Tarnok in 6 games has given up zero runs...

Well, no earned runs. He's given up 6 unearned runs.

[thewupk]

At some point, the fact no one really hits him and he is younger than this competition has to mean something. He is our LH greinke... his milb numbers look very similar too.

I really hope so. But you can't fault scouts that look at his stuff and be skeptical. I see a guy that is going to need plus control and sequencing to be a successful starter. Not saying that can't happen but the margin of error is much small for these guys.

[Southcack77]

At some point, the fact no one really hits him and he is younger than this competition has to mean something. He is our LH greinke... his milb numbers look very similar too.

I think you have to remain open to the possibility that he can outperform weak velocity.

[Russ2dollas]

I really hope so. But you can't fault scouts that look at his stuff and be skeptical. I see a guy that is going to need plus control and sequencing to be a successful starter. Not saying that can't happen but the margin of error is much small for these guys.

I wasn't under the impression people were questioning if he could be a starter.

I thought the issue was we were looking at a top pick who we thought had big time potential and now he was likely a 4/5 guy.

[thewupk]

I wasn't under the impression people were questioning if he could be a starter.

I thought the issue was we were looking at a top pick who we thought had big time potential and now he was likely a 4/5 guy.

By successful starter I do mean a MOR guy. Your typical 4/5th starter isn't very good and usually get put in the pen or cut when they aren't cheap and haven't developed further.

[thethe]

By successful starter I do mean a MOR guy. Your typical 4/5th starter isn't very good and usually get put in the pen or cut when they aren't cheap and haven't developed further.

I think a lefty with plus control and secondary offerings can be a MOR if they are living at 89-92 with their fastball.

[jpx7]

I think you have to remain open to the possibility that he can outperform weak velocity.

I think a lefty with plus control and secondary offerings can be a MOR if they are living at 89-92 with their fastball.

I'm certainly skeptical that the Braves will have the good fortune of Allard being one of the aberrant cases; but I certainly want him to have every opportunity to let us find out.

[thethe]

I'm certainly skeptical that the Braves will have the good fortune of Allard being one of the aberrant cases; but I certainly want him to have every opportunity to let us find out.

I don't know what history tells us but I'd like to think that the success rate for pitchers who excel at AA at 19 and AAA 20 is pretty good. Now good for a pitcher is like 25% (maybe even lower) but I think we are nearing the point where its not 'if' Allard is a major leaguer but how good of a major leaguer is he going to be.

[jpx7]

I don't know what history tells us but I'd like to think that the success rate for pitchers who excel at AA at 19 and AAA 20 is pretty good. Now good for a pitcher is like 25% (maybe even lower) but I think we are nearing the point where its not 'if' Allard is a major leaguer but how good of a major leaguer is he going to be.

I'm willing to limb-out and say his major-league outcome will fall somewhere between Damian Moss and Tom Glavine.

[thethe]

I'm willing to limb-out and say his major-league outcome will fall somewhere between Damian Moss and Tom Glavine.

Moss was GOOD.......for a couple of weeks

[mfree80]

I'm willing to limb-out and say his major-league outcome will fall somewhere between Damian Moss and Tom Glavine.

Man. You are brave. What a bold prediction!

[jpx7]

Moss was GOOD.......for a couple of weeks

I was a fan, and I thought he could be one of those lefties that out-pitches their stuff and peripherals; I didn't expect him to be sub-3.50 ERA long-term, but I thought he could settle into the 4.00–4.50 ERA range, which represented a decently-valuable starter during the years he came up. Obviously Allard's pedigree and minor-league career is much better, but Moss is the sort of worst-case that flashes into my mind when I'm tempted to dream on Allard. Fool me once, and all.

[jpx7]

Man. You are brave. What a bold prediction!

cf.

I don't know—never making a firm or absolute claim, and always hedging the statements I do make, has been pretty effective in keeping me always right.