Page 97 of 98 FirstFirst ... 478795969798 LastLast
Results 1,921 to 1,940 of 1957

Thread: Braves donate Justin Upton to Padres for prospects

  1. #1921
    It's OVER 5,000! yeezus's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    8,108
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    1,501
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    1,720
    Thanked in
    1,122 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Dalyn View Post
    Since when is batting average as important as you are making it? He was 4th among starters in OPS with RISP (and had more RBIs with RISP than anyone else--a SF can affect batting average, and he led the team in those). And you are looking at the raw numbers that include while he was hitting elsewhere in the lineup. What are his RISP numbers solely in the #4 spot?
    batting average is at least mildly important when dealing with RISP. I also never put a value on it, I said those numbers hurt, aren't good, and a jump in your #4 hitter with RISP can make a difference. he was 4th among our starters in OPS with RISP? and that's supposed to be a good thing? Freeman was always on base for him which gave him opps.

    him hitting .280 with RISP could have won a few more games. he wasn't all that good in those situations over two years.

  2. #1922
    Fredi Gonzalez Supporter Dalyn's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Location
    Your mom
    Posts
    14,077
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    6,446
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    5,802
    Thanked in
    3,408 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    Well done on changing your posts in time!

    Nuttin buh luv fo ya Dalyn!

  3. #1923
    It's OVER 5,000! yeezus's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    8,108
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    1,501
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    1,720
    Thanked in
    1,122 Posts
    also sac flies don't affect BA do they? they aren't official at-bats b

  4. #1924
    Fredi Gonzalez Supporter Dalyn's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Location
    Your mom
    Posts
    14,077
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    6,446
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    5,802
    Thanked in
    3,408 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by yeezus View Post
    batting average is at least mildly important when dealing with RISP. I also never put a value on it, I said those numbers hurt, aren't good, and a jump in your #4 hitter with RISP can make a difference. he was 4th among our starters in OPS with RISP? and that's supposed to be a good thing? Freeman was always on base for him which gave him opps.

    him hitting .280 with RISP could have won a few more games. he wasn't all that good in those situations over two years.
    He definitely could've been better, though it is weird how he only seemed to suck when a runner was at second. Same last year. Maybe Freeman is a distraction out there at second.

  5. #1925
    Shift Leader thethe's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    69,579
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    5,507
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    5,179
    Thanked in
    3,898 Posts
    I think batting average is going to start getting to be much more important in the future actually.
    Natural Immunity Croc

  6. #1926
    Fredi Gonzalez Supporter Dalyn's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Location
    Your mom
    Posts
    14,077
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    6,446
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    5,802
    Thanked in
    3,408 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by yeezus View Post
    also sac flies don't affect BA do they? they aren't official at-bats b
    No, they don't (not directly). I clarified what I meant. My mistake with the wording.

  7. #1927
    Fredi Gonzalez Supporter Dalyn's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Location
    Your mom
    Posts
    14,077
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    6,446
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    5,802
    Thanked in
    3,408 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    I think batting average is going to start getting to be much more important in the future actually.
    I don't agree at all. Why do you think that?

  8. #1928
    Arizona Fall Leaguer
    Join Date
    Aug 2013
    Posts
    100
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    191
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    43
    Thanked in
    27 Posts
    After trading Heyward, it made no sense to keep Justin if we couldn't re-sign him. We can finish in 4th without him. But I really do not like that we'll have to wait years to see benefits from the main piece we got in return.

    I became dissatisfied with JS after a while and it seems like I am already feeling the same way about Hart. Old blood, when we need new blood. It's depressing when the bright side seems to be that we probably won't be worse than what we watched towards the end of last year. I'm getting old, and my 1995 WS Champions coffee mug is losing hope of ever finding a partner. '15 will be the 20th season played since then.

  9. #1929
    Shift Leader thethe's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    69,579
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    5,507
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    5,179
    Thanked in
    3,898 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Dalyn View Post
    I don't agree at all. Why do you think that?
    Contact is going to be the important thing moving forward. Those hitters that can consistently put the bat on the ball. The hitters that do that more often are going to have higher averages.

    Average was devauled in the past becaues the approach was to do as much damage with every swing possible. This resulted from PED's.

    I just believe the whole game is going to change. I don't think average will be the most important stat but I do think it will become more important than what it was the last 15 years where it was basically a useless tool.
    Natural Immunity Croc

  10. The Following User Says Thank You to thethe For This Useful Post:

    Dalyn (12-22-2014)

  11. #1930
    Fredi Gonzalez Supporter Dalyn's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Location
    Your mom
    Posts
    14,077
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    6,446
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    5,802
    Thanked in
    3,408 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    Contact is going to be the important thing moving forward. Those hitters that can consistently put the bat on the ball. The hitters that do that more often are going to have higher averages.

    Average was devauled in the past becaues the approach was to do as much damage with every swing possible. This resulted from PED's.

    I just believe the whole game is going to change. I don't think average will be the most important stat but I do think it will become more important than what it was the last 15 years where it was basically a useless tool.
    Seitzer is all about contact, and he talks about OBP and OPS. I don't think average is ever going to reclaim its former glory, though I'm sure the league average will increase if more teams focus on contact.

  12. The Following User Says Thank You to Dalyn For This Useful Post:

    goldfly (12-22-2014)

  13. #1931
    It's OVER 5,000!
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    11,386
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    2,392
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    2,746
    Thanked in
    1,975 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Dalyn View Post
    It's a misleading stat under these circumstances when you consider that a sacrifice fly can affect batting average.
    Ummm unless I'm missing something, sac flies don't affect your BA.

  14. #1932
    Fredi Gonzalez Supporter Dalyn's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Location
    Your mom
    Posts
    14,077
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    6,446
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    5,802
    Thanked in
    3,408 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Carp View Post
    Ummm unless I'm missing something, sac flies don't affect your BA.
    Indirectly. I clarified what I meant.

  15. #1933
    It's OVER 5,000!
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    11,386
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    2,392
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    2,746
    Thanked in
    1,975 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Dalyn View Post
    My mistake with the wording. I meant that a sacrifice fly by definition is a player giving up a chance at a hit to drive in a run. If they were selfish, it could mean an extra hit or two. Justin led the team in sacrifice flies.
    I see now. Thx.

  16. The Following User Says Thank You to Carp For This Useful Post:

    Dalyn (12-22-2014)

  17. #1934
    Atlanta Braves Fan
    Wash Nationals Fan
    Bryce Harper Fanatic

    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    11,459
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    87
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    1,317
    Thanked in
    874 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    And thats why Gattis will be traded.

    And I wouldn't say that because we saw what loading up on power hitters did for us. Just a lot of swings and misses and a complete inability to score runs other than a homerun. Yeah that works in the regular season against crappy teams and the back end of starting rotations but in the playoffs that **** doesn't work.
    https://medium.com/the-cauldron/in-t...s-7a208a8bb206

    Home runs tend to be hit at a similar rate in the playoffs as in the regular season, but scoring by any other means becomes more difficult. The best teams tend to have the best pitchers, who in turn allow the fewest baserunners, so stringing together rallies becomes an increasing challenge.

    Here is the data on the last 10 postseasons, plus the current one (information from Baseball-Reference and Statspass):




    It’s really a simple math problem. As on-base percentage decreases, the probability of putting enough men on base to push home a runner declines. League-wide on-base percentage in 2014 was .314 this season, but it has been .289 this postseason. That’s a reduction of eight percent, which is quite significant. In essence, a team needs three singles in order to score a run, and the likelihood of each base hit has now been diminished. As probability comes from multiplication, the chance of scoring through piecemeal offense can decline quickly.


    A Baseball Prospectus study two years ago noted that playoff teams scored a higher percentage of their runs via home runs than non-playoff teams and, of those clubs that reached the postseason, those that were more dependent on the homer scored more in October, too.
    "Yes, I did think Aldrich was good UNTIL I SAW HIM PLAY. "- thethe

  18. The Following User Says Thank You to gilesfan For This Useful Post:

    Diesel (12-22-2014)

  19. #1935
    It's OVER 5,000!
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    11,386
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    2,392
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    2,746
    Thanked in
    1,975 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Dalyn View Post
    I think the most important thing to look at w/RISP is RBIs per at-bat, and Justin was right there with others considered clutch like Freeman and Heyward (though Stella! was the best).
    I don't like that either, as your players with more power are going to have more RBI's per at bat.

    Player 1 hits a grand slam in 1 at bat with RISP but goes 0-3 over his next 3 games with RISP. He shows average as .250 with 4 RBI.

    Player 2 knocked in 4 runs on 4 singles in 4 at bats with RISP over 4 games. His average is 1.000 with 4 RBI.

    Both have the same RBI per at bat, but 1 player was clearly more valuable on a per game average.
    Last edited by Carp; 12-22-2014 at 03:31 PM.

  20. #1936
    Spring Training Invitee Diesel's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    222
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    82
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    64
    Thanked in
    46 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by gilesfan View Post
    https://medium.com/the-cauldron/in-t...s-7a208a8bb206

    Home runs tend to be hit at a similar rate in the playoffs as in the regular season, but scoring by any other means becomes more difficult. The best teams tend to have the best pitchers, who in turn allow the fewest baserunners, so stringing together rallies becomes an increasing challenge.

    Here is the data on the last 10 postseasons, plus the current one (information from Baseball-Reference and Statspass):




    It’s really a simple math problem. As on-base percentage decreases, the probability of putting enough men on base to push home a runner declines. League-wide on-base percentage in 2014 was .314 this season, but it has been .289 this postseason. That’s a reduction of eight percent, which is quite significant. In essence, a team needs three singles in order to score a run, and the likelihood of each base hit has now been diminished. As probability comes from multiplication, the chance of scoring through piecemeal offense can decline quickly.


    A Baseball Prospectus study two years ago noted that playoff teams scored a higher percentage of their runs via home runs than non-playoff teams and, of those clubs that reached the postseason, those that were more dependent on the homer scored more in October, too.
    I had seen this and was searching for it before you posted it. Even though it seems to be the common belief that small ball teams succeed more in the playoffs, this doesn't seem to support that.

  21. #1937
    Fredi Gonzalez Supporter Dalyn's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Location
    Your mom
    Posts
    14,077
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    6,446
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    5,802
    Thanked in
    3,408 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Carp View Post
    I don't like that either, as your players with more power are going to have more RBI's per at bat.

    Player 1 hits a grand slam in 1 at bat with RISP but goes 0-3 over his next 3 games with RISP. He shows average as .250 with 4 RBI.

    Player 2 knocked in 4 runs on 4 singles in 4 at bats with RISP over 4 games.

    Both have the same RBI per at bat, but 1 player was clearly more valuable on a per game average.
    But the second player is most likely not knocking anyone in from first while the other player most likely is. Perfect example is Stella! vs Justin. Stella! led the team with RBIs per at-bat w/RISP, but he didn't knock in a single person from first. Justin knocked in 25.

  22. #1938
    Shift Leader thethe's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    69,579
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    5,507
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    5,179
    Thanked in
    3,898 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by gilesfan View Post
    https://medium.com/the-cauldron/in-t...s-7a208a8bb206

    Home runs tend to be hit at a similar rate in the playoffs as in the regular season, but scoring by any other means becomes more difficult. The best teams tend to have the best pitchers, who in turn allow the fewest baserunners, so stringing together rallies becomes an increasing challenge.

    Here is the data on the last 10 postseasons, plus the current one (information from Baseball-Reference and Statspass):




    It’s really a simple math problem. As on-base percentage decreases, the probability of putting enough men on base to push home a runner declines. League-wide on-base percentage in 2014 was .314 this season, but it has been .289 this postseason. That’s a reduction of eight percent, which is quite significant. In essence, a team needs three singles in order to score a run, and the likelihood of each base hit has now been diminished. As probability comes from multiplication, the chance of scoring through piecemeal offense can decline quickly.


    A Baseball Prospectus study two years ago noted that playoff teams scored a higher percentage of their runs via home runs than non-playoff teams and, of those clubs that reached the postseason, those that were more dependent on the homer scored more in October, too.
    This study is based off of years where PED's were still rampant. I'm not sure how much validity its going to have moving forward.
    Natural Immunity Croc

  23. #1939
    Atlanta Braves Fan
    Wash Nationals Fan
    Bryce Harper Fanatic

    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    11,459
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    87
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    1,317
    Thanked in
    874 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    This study is based off of years where PED's were still rampant. I'm not sure how much validity its going to have moving forward.
    like last year?

    Run scoring is down, but percentage of runs thorugh HR's aren't drastically different (maybe even higher.) And look at OBP, which the study refers too, that's as low as it gets meaning HRs are even more important.
    "Yes, I did think Aldrich was good UNTIL I SAW HIM PLAY. "- thethe

  24. #1940
    Shift Leader thethe's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    69,579
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    5,507
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    5,179
    Thanked in
    3,898 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by gilesfan View Post
    like last year?
    Small sample size noise is always possible. Lets wait to see where baseball goes in the next five years.
    Natural Immunity Croc

Similar Threads

  1. Why we should be all over Justin Upton
    By Carp in forum 2023: Celebrating Our 10th Year Here
    Replies: 41
    Last Post: 01-10-2016, 08:18 PM
  2. Home run watch: Braves VS Justin Upton/Evan Gattis
    By NinersSBChamps in forum 2023: Celebrating Our 10th Year Here
    Replies: 20
    Last Post: 05-26-2015, 07:08 AM
  3. Braves donate Justin Upton to Padres for prospects
    By mikewon in forum 2023: Celebrating Our 10th Year Here
    Replies: 1956
    Last Post: 01-26-2015, 06:23 PM
  4. The Consistent Justin Upton
    By MadduxFanII in forum 2023: Celebrating Our 10th Year Here
    Replies: 62
    Last Post: 08-22-2014, 02:28 PM
  5. Justin Upton and Texas
    By cajunrevenge in forum 2023: Celebrating Our 10th Year Here
    Replies: 70
    Last Post: 10-14-2013, 10:31 AM

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •