June Rule IV pre-draft Thread

[50PoundHead]

Some of the college pitchers that might have been picked early have faltered a bit and are sliding. This will increase the number of teams taking the better HS hitters ahead of our #14 pick.

Add to that the injury concerns on Allard and Aiken the early part of the draft may center on the hitters.

[nsacpi]

BA's latest mock draft has the Diamondbacks taking Stephenson #1, on a deal that would save them some money to spend on later picks. They now have the Bravos taking Ashe Russell. Whitley now goes at #27 (as opposed to #13 in their prior mock).

[Enscheff]

BP has the following hitters being taken right around the Braves pick:

10. Philadelphia Phillies – Ian Happ, 2B, Cincinnati
11. Cincinnati Reds – Tyler Stephenson, C, Kennesaw Mountain HS (Ga.)
12. Miami Marlins – Daz Cameron, OF, Eagle’s Landing HS (Ga.)
13. Tampa Bay Rays – Trenton Clark, OF, Richland HS (Tex.)
14. Atlanta Braves – Cornelius Randolph, SS, Griffin HS (Ga.)
15. Milwaukee Brewers – Nick Plummer, OF, Brother Rice HS (Mich.)
16. New York Yankees – Garrett Whitley, OF, Niskayuna HS (N.Y.)

This BP article says the Braves will take Stephenson or Cameron if they are still available. Randolph will probably be moved to 3B almost immediately, but he has arguably the best hit tool of all the prep bats (along with Clark and Plummer), so his bat should play well even at 3B.

[smootness]

BA's latest mock draft has the Diamondbacks taking Stephenson #1, on a deal that would save them some money to spend on later picks. They now have the Bravos taking Ashe Russell. Whitley now goes at #27 (as opposed to #13 in their prior mock).

What the.

[smootness]

BP has the following hitters being taken right around the Braves pick:

10. Philadelphia Phillies – Ian Happ, 2B, Cincinnati
11. Cincinnati Reds – Tyler Stephenson, C, Kennesaw Mountain HS (Ga.)
12. Miami Marlins – Daz Cameron, OF, Eagle’s Landing HS (Ga.)
13. Tampa Bay Rays – Trenton Clark, OF, Richland HS (Tex.)
14. Atlanta Braves – Cornelius Randolph, SS, Griffin HS (Ga.)
15. Milwaukee Brewers – Nick Plummer, OF, Brother Rice HS (Mich.)
16. New York Yankees – Garrett Whitley, OF, Niskayuna HS (N.Y.)

This BP article says the Braves will take Stephenson or Cameron if they are still available. Randolph will probably be moved to 3B almost immediately, but he has arguably the best hit tool of all the prep bats (along with Clark and Plummer), so his bat should play well even at 3B.

This would be so maddening haha. To have all those guys still there at 10 and then see them all come off the board in order. I would take Randolph and be happy, though.

[clvclv]

What the.

Makes tons of sense actually. They desperately need catching, and then they can throw the money they'd save at whatever Pitcher slips to them at #43.

[smootness]

Makes tons of sense actually. They desperately need catching, and then they can throw the money they'd save at whatever Pitcher slips to them at #43.

The 'what the' was honestly more about Whitley falling to 27. I'd be pretty disappointed if we took Russell and then Whitley fell and fell and fell...and then was taken one pick before us.

[clvclv]

The 'what the' was honestly more about Whitley falling to 27. I'd be pretty disappointed if we took Russell and then Whitley fell and fell and fell...and then was taken one pick before us.

I personally don't think we're all that interested in Whitley - we've suddenly got a lot of OF depth in the system (plus the ability to convert Peraza into a CF), and if Ruiz happens to work out at 3B you could always turn Randolph into an OF if need be.

IF we take a hitter with one of those first two picks, I'd just about bet my house that at least three of the next four picks will be spent on Pitchers.

[50PoundHead]

Whitley is a classic high risk/high reward guy. I wouldn't mind taking him, but his career might resemble Cody Johnson's sans Ks. We have the extra picks to accommodate a high-risk pick, but I don't know what his price is.

[Enscheff]

Whatever guy is picked, I think it's pretty clear the Braves need to grab a position player at 14. Pretty much all mocks have a group of about 5-10 positional talents coming off the board around picks 10-20, and the Braves must come out of the draft with one of those talents. I personally like Clark, Randolph and Plummer, but I can see why Cameron is intriguing (not like I know much about these guys though).

They can take their shot on a high upside arm at 28, as there seems to be a bunch of good arms with question marks in this draft.

[nsacpi]

I personally don't think we're all that interested in Whitley - we've suddenly got a lot of OF depth in the system (plus the ability to convert Peraza into a CF), and if Ruiz happens to work out at 3B you could always turn Randolph into an OF if need be.

IF we take a hitter with one of those first two picks, I'd just about bet my house that at least three of the next four picks will be spent on Pitchers.

What kind of house do you have

[clvclv]

What kind of house do you have

The McMansion type, of course!!!

[jpx7]

The McMansion type, of course!!!

[smootness]

Whatever guy is picked, I think it's pretty clear the Braves need to grab a position player at 14. Pretty much all mocks have a group of about 5-10 positional talents coming off the board around picks 10-20, and the Braves must come out of the draft with one of those talents. I personally like Clark, Randolph and Plummer, but I can see why Cameron is intriguing (not like I know much about these guys though).

They can take their shot on a high upside arm at 28, as there seems to be a bunch of good arms with question marks in this draft.

I fully agree with this. The Braves may not be high on Whitley, but I don't see all the OF depth in the system. Maybin isn't a long-term solution and Eury Perez is a borderline guy. Then you have Mallex, Peterson, and Davidson, none of whom are anything close to sure bets.

The only position I think we should avoid is 1B. Probably MIF, too, Everything else is in play if the value is there.

[Heyward]

We already have Maybin.

[Heyward]

Im pretty much all-in on a hitter at 14.

The pitching still needs more depth but i disagree with going pitcher at 14.

Stephenson is obviously the one most want but certainly seems likely he wont be there but the draft doesnt always go as planned so who knows.

[KB21]

John Manuel's (Baseball America) Mock Draft 5.0

14. Braves

3ds_braves79

Atlanta has been tied to multiple players such as Stephenson, though our sources indicate the Braves won’t take a prep catcher with their first pick. Expect a run on Georgia players for Atlanta starting either in round two or round three, but the Braves aren’t limited to the Peach State early. Instead, they have been tied recently to prep arms, such as Indianapolis’ Ashe Russell, whose fastball has bowling ball sink. If Atlanta really wants to shake things up, they could go with 2014 No. 1 overall pick Brady Aiken. With their number of picks and $10 million plus in pool money, plus decision-makers such as Chad MacDonald and Roy Clark who love prep arms, they are as likely a landing spot for Aiken as anyone.

Selection: Ashe Russell, rhp, Cathedral Catholic HS, Indianapolis

The Braves like pitchers that have the ability to put "sink" on their fastball. Here is a blurb from the pre draft scouting report on Garrett Fulenchek last year:

Fulenchek's best pitch is a hard sinker that runs from 90-94 mph and could get quicker as he fills out his frame. His slider has improved during his senior season, and though it lacks some consistency, it has late bite and could become a plus pitch in the future. He also demonstrates feel for his changeup, though he doesn't have to use it much.

28. Braves: A Stanford signee, Beck has helium coming off a 10-inning CIF playoffs start in which he pitched efficiently, hit 95 mph and struck out 14.

Selection: Tristan Beck, rhp, Corona, Calif.

Beck is reportedly a very tough sign. He's a Stanford commitment that appears to be solid with going to Stanford.

Jim Callis's (MLB Pipeline) Mock Draft

14. Atlanta Braves
Ian Happ, OF, Cincinnati
The easy move is to give the Braves a Georgia high schooler. They'd take Stephenson, but they probably can't afford Cameron and may prefer Griffin (Ga.) High shortstop Cornelius Randolph with their second pick at No. 28. Atlanta could hit a variety of demographics from college bat (Happ) to high school athlete (Whitley) to prep pitcher (Stroudsburg (Pa.) High right-hander Mike Nikorak.

28. Atlanta Braves (compensation for loss of free agent Ervin Santana)
Ashe Russell, RHP, Cathedral HS (Indianapolis)
Though high school right-handers usually last longer than they should, it may be a stretch for Russell to get to No. 28. Everett would be another consideration, as would Texas Christian left-hander Alex Young, who's more likely to be available.

Seems to be a lot of smoke around Russell to Atlanta right now.

[Horsehide Harry]

The Braves pretty much HAVE to do something about the lack of hitting prospects in the minors. The guys they DO have down there, Albies, Peraza, Smith that are the best bets are all essentially the same hitter. The guys with some possible power potential, Peterson, Davidson, Ruiz are all questionable and/or have position problems.

When the Braves developed the "Dynasty" everyone remembers the pitching, pitching, pitching mantra. But most seem to forget that the Braves had guys like: Gant, Justice, Hunter, Lemke, Blauser, Lopez, Klesko and Chipper at the minor league level or just breaking in to the ML level.

The idea that you can just trade for a team of hitters out of a surplus of pitching is just fools gold or wishful thinking. Trade for a player like a McGriff when needed? Absolutely. Trade for 3-4 to build a team out of a pool of 2n choice pitching prospects (assuming the Braves keep the best for themselves), unlikely in the extreme.

[50PoundHead]

The Braves pretty much HAVE to do something about the lack of hitting prospects in the minors. The guys they DO have down there, Albies, Peraza, Smith that are the best bets are all essentially the same hitter. The guys with some possible power potential, Peterson, Davidson, Ruiz are all questionable and/or have position problems.

When the Braves developed the "Dynasty" everyone remembers the pitching, pitching, pitching mantra. But most seem to forget that the Braves had guys like: Gant, Justice, Hunter, Lemke, Blauser, Lopez, Klesko and Chipper at the minor league level or just breaking in to the ML level.

The idea that you can just trade for a team of hitters out of a surplus of pitching is just fools gold or wishful thinking. Trade for a player like a McGriff when needed? Absolutely. Trade for 3-4 to build a team out of a pool of 2n choice pitching prospects (assuming the Braves keep the best for themselves), unlikely in the extreme.

HH, I agree and it will be interesting to see which way they go with the first couple of picks. The good news in this draft is that we have a lot of picks so we can assume some risk and venture a pick or two on players with signability issues.

Looking at the rankings, I see a lot of guys in the 40 to 70 range who could be big-time hitters (I think either of the Georgia Joneses as possible picks in that range). But we need to balance the system and it's important to note that even with all the pitching we've obtained through trades, we're still fairly thin in that department at the lower levels. I look for an aggressive draft (and international signing period) that is going to put a foundation in place both on the mound and in the field.

[nsacpi]

HH, I agree and it will be interesting to see which way they go with the first couple of picks. The good news in this draft is that we have a lot of picks so we can assume some risk and venture a pick or two on players with signability issues.

Looking at the rankings, I see a lot of guys in the 40 to 70 range who could be big-time hitters (I think either of the Georgia Joneses as possible picks in that range). But we need to balance the system and it's important to note that even with all the pitching we've obtained through trades, we're still fairly thin in that department at the lower levels. I look for an aggressive draft (and international signing period) that is going to put a foundation in place both on the mound and in the field.

The point about lower level pitching depth is important. We are fine at the upper levels. But we need an influx of arms at the lower levels. I think we'll see quite a few high school pitchers taken, although I'm hoping we use one of our first six picks on a college arm who could move fast up the system either as a reliever or starter. We've had success with that kind of pick in the early rounds (Woods and Kimbrel being the most notable ones, but some lesser major leaguers as well).

I think there are also a small number of college outfielders with stong bats that might have some appeal in the second and third rounds given that this is an area the farm system is weak.

In my predictions for the first six picks, I have two HS pitchers, two HS hitters, one college pitcher, and one college hitter. I think those kinds of ratios will probably be maintained in our next group of picks from the 4th to 10th rounds.