Braves are savlaging a salary dump (FG article on Maybin's resurgence)

[clvclv]

It would be crazy to give JUp upwards of $30M per year, and I am about the biggest JUp homer around. Have to figure Wieters will get $18M+ for 5+ years, and I can't imagine the Braves going 5+ years on a catcher. I would probably avoid giving a BP arm a 3 year deal as well.

The three years wouldn't really concern me if they front-loaded the deal like they did Grilli's - would make it relatively easy to unload the last year or two when other arms emerge within the system.

[nsacpi]

Just because the Jays were willing to give a terrible contract to a Catcher doesn't mean everyone else will - if you have to give ANY Catcher more than $10 million per to sign, you're better off finding other options.

McCann got 5/85 coming off some injuries and signs of decline.

There will be some deep-pocketed teams who might be looking to upgrade at catcher this off-season, including the Red Sox, Angels, and Cubs.

[chop2chip]

Just because the Jays were willing to give a terrible contract to a Catcher doesn't mean everyone else will - if you have to give ANY Catcher more than $10 million per to sign, you're better off finding other options.

Russell Martin has been fantastic for the Blue Jays and he's extremely popular in Canada. I wouldn't call that a terrible contract at all.

[nsacpi]

It would be crazy to give JUp upwards of $30M per year, and I am about the biggest JUp homer around.

Justin is going into free agency 3 years younger than Robinson Cano and 2 years younger then Ellsbury. I think he'll get an 8-10 year deal at an AAV of 28-29M.

The going rate for free agent hitters last off-season was around 8M/projected WAR. It will be in the 9-10M range this off-season.

[nsacpi]

Russell Martin has been fantastic for the Blue Jays and he's extremely popular in Canada. I wouldn't call that a terrible contract at all.

I think people haven't fully absorbed the inflation that has occurred in the free agent market for hitters (I don't know why because we just paid Markakis 11M/per year for a projected 1.5 WAR/year). We really should have exhaustively explored extenting one of Jason or Justin.

[Heyward]

No way i'd sign Justin for close to 30 mil a year.

Wieters gets at least 12-15 a year.

I'd sign some RPs, but there's some internal options as well.

But do need to sign some veterans also.

I can get the argument to trade Maybin but if we cant get anyone worth a **** in FA or trade, why not keep him.

[chop2chip]

The going rate for free agent hitters last off-season was around 8M/projected WAR. It will be in the 9-10M range this off-season.

I doubt that. Assuming an inflation rate over 13-20% isn't reasonable.

Now that the league television contracts and the majority of team television contracts have been negotiated, salary inflation should start leveling off at a normal rate.

[chop2chip]

I think people haven't fully absorbed the inflation that has occurred in the free agent market for hitters (I don't know why because we just paid Markakis 11M/per year for a projected 1.5 WAR/year). We really should have exhaustively explored extenting one of Jason or Justin.

You could argue the inverse. Inflated salaries has made pre-FA players relatively more valuable.

[Carp]

I keep Maybin unless someone offers up a good package for him. Justin Upton is a pipe dream, imo. We've burned that bridge. I see us trading for our next big hitter honestly. Some players I'd inquire on are Brantley, Moustakas, Gordon, Longoria, CarGo, and Tulowitzki. I think we are in a fantastic place with our farm that we can trade a multiple high end guys and not skip a beat from a depth standpoint. I would think Peraza or Peterson would most likely to be involved, along with Folty or Wisler. Or I wonder if the Royals would do Moustakas for Miller?

[nsacpi]

Here is what I think is more likely to happen next off-season:

1) We sign Zobrist for 2 years plus an option at about $13M/year.

2) We sign Dioner Navaro or Chris Ianetta for 2 years plus an option at about 8M/year.

3) We sign Uribe or Kelly Johnson on a 1 year deal at abut 5M/year

4) We sign Jim Johnson or similar veteran reliever on a 2 year deal at about 5M/year.

We might spend a little more, but I think payroll will be about $90M in 2016.

[Heyward]

I keep Maybin unless someone offers up a good package for him. Justin Upton is a pipe dream, imo. We've burned that bridge. I see us trading for our next big hitter honestly. Some players I'd inquire on are Brantley, Moustakas, Gordon, Longoria, CarGo, and Tulowitzki. I think we are in a fantastic place with our farm that we can trade a multiple high end guys and not skip a beat from a depth standpoint. I would think Peraza or Peterson would most likely to be involved, along with Folty or Wisler. Or I wonder if the Royals would do Moustakas for Miller?

Gordon is a FA soon.

I'd stay away from CarGo, Coors effect, same as Tulo.

Brantley, Moose, Longo have my attention though.

I think Moose is up in a few years too.

[Heyward]

Here is what I think is more likely to happen next off-season:

1) We sign Zobrist for 2 years plus an option at about $13M/year.

2) We sign Dioner Navaro or Chris Ianetta for 2 years plus an option at about 8M/year.

3) We sign Uribe or Kelly Johnson on a 1 year deal at abut 5M/year

4) We sign Jim Johnson or similar veteran reliever on a 2 year deal at about 5M/year.

We might spend a little more, but I think payroll will be about $90M in 2016.

Zobrist at 13 mil a year?

Meh.

[nsacpi]

I doubt that. Assuming an inflation rate over 13-20% isn't reasonable.

Now that the league television contracts and the majority of team television contracts have been negotiated, salary inflation should start leveling off at a normal rate.

Actually the increase was higher this past off-season. Teams are going through a period of rapid revenue growth, not least due to the national TV deal that went into effect in 2014. Salaries have yet to fully adjust to the bump in revenues from that.

[nsacpi]

Zobrist at 13 mil a year?

Meh.

I'm not asking anyone to be excited by any of his. But I am trying to get across a view that salaries are going up fast, but Braves payroll is more likely to go down than up in 2016.

[nsacpi]

I keep Maybin unless someone offers up a good package for him. Justin Upton is a pipe dream, imo. We've burned that bridge. I see us trading for our next big hitter honestly. Some players I'd inquire on are Brantley, Moustakas, Gordon, Longoria, CarGo, and Tulowitzki. I think we are in a fantastic place with our farm that we can trade a multiple high end guys and not skip a beat from a depth standpoint. I would think Peraza or Peterson would most likely to be involved, along with Folty or Wisler. Or I wonder if the Royals would do Moustakas for Miller?

I see the Braves looking on to take on some bad contracts other teams are willing to eat some salary on. CarGo is one of those possibilities.

[Heyward]

I'm not asking anyone to be excited by any of his. But I am trying to get across a view that salaries are going up fast, but Braves payroll is more likely to go down than up in 2016.

I agree actually, but the 2017 FA class doesnt look very good.

Makes sense to try and sign one big name, or get someone since they have the money to do so.

[nsacpi]

I agree actually, but the 2017 FA class doesnt look very good.

Makes sense to try and sign one big name, or get someone since they have the money to do so.

There are some creative options. But does it make more sense to front-load or back-load. If you are punting again in 2016 (or shooting for palatability to use another way of putting it) you might as well front-load to lessen the payroll hit in 2017 and beyond.

[clvclv]

Russell Martin has been fantastic for the Blue Jays and he's extremely popular in Canada. I wouldn't call that a terrible contract at all.

This is Year One of that deal. The first seasons of the Uggla and B. J./Melvin deals weren't awful either.

[dak]

Russell Martin got 5 years/82M. I realize he has been more durable than Weiters, but he's also older. The numbers for Upton and Johnson are probably low too, but strike me as closer to the mark than the ones for Weiters.

Yeah, Wieters definitely low and J-Up probably low. I was thinking 10 for $250m on J-Up. Shouldn't cost more than 12 for $300m at the high end.

[Heyward]

There are some creative options. But does it make more sense to front-load or back-load. If you are punting again in 2016 (or shooting for palatability to use another way of putting it) you might as well front-load to lessen the payroll hit in 2017 and beyond.

We're punting this year and would be leading the WC/division with an average pen.

With the right moves, they can contend for a WC/division depending what pieces Washington loses, and replaces them with.