Bryse Wilson

[Enscheff]

is it not possible that a guy with wilson's stuff keeps making adjustments to continue to be successful?

Of course it's possible, but right now he's a plus FA up in the zone, and a few above average SL/CH to keep hitters honest. The SL/CH are good, but not enough to carry a pitcher to success. His "stuff" isn't anything special without the FA velocity.

If that FA doesn't work up in the zone, Bryse Wilson doesn't work as a pitcher. He has just enough movement on it to make it work, so once the velocity dips the lack of movement won't allow the pitch to be effective.

[jpack1]

Wilson showed a 3 pitch mix last night: FA (62), SL (13), CH (12). As per EL's latest in person report, Wilson pounded the upper half of the zone with his FA to good effect.

FA: 95.1 mph (Grade 58.5), 4.9" HMov (Grade 48.6), 8.6" VMov (Grade 46.0)

In EL's latest report he said, "touched 97 several times last night and sat 93-95 late in the outing. He pounded the zone with his fastball (72 of 98 pitches were for strikes) and blew it past several hitters up above the strike zone". He was 100% spot on. This is plus velocity with just enough movement to keep it from being flat, resulting in a 55/60 pitch that plays as a 60 when located up like it was last night.

SL: 82.7 mph (Grade 41.8), 3.2" HMov (Grade 53.6), -0.2" VMov (Grade 58.4)

EL said, "His slider flashes plus but is mostly average and is only capable of missing bats when it’s out of the zone". It showed as a 55 last night.

CH: 8.3 mph delta (Grade 52.7), 9.4" HMov (Grade 62.2), 2.7" VMov (Grade 58.9)

According to EL, "Wilson’s changeup is fringey and firm, without much bat-missing movement, but the velocity separation off of the fastball is enough to keep hitters from squaring it up, and it’s going to be an effective pitch". I agree with the part about it being an effective pitch, but I disagree with the part about it not having movement. The CH objectively has plus movement, and grades out as a 55/60 pitch overall.

Command: EL wrote, "Wilson’s delivery is much more graceful and fluid than it was when he was in high school, when scouts thought it would impact his ability to command the fastball and possibly move him to the bullpen". We saw him walk 3 in 5 IP, which is certainly not ideal, but we also saw him continually pound the upper portion of the zone with the FA. His 32.2% Zone% is below MLB average of 43%, so I agree with FG's assessment of 45 for his present control grade.

So we have a 20 year old arm with a 55/60 FA, 55 SL, 55/60 CH, and just enough control to make it all work. That's a solid #4 that produces 2+ wins annually who climbs the ladder as his control improves. His young age and rapid improvement at the MiLB level suggests average control is well within reason, which would make him a nice #3 while the plus velocity allows him to work up in the zone.

I think that's the deal with Wilson...as soon as the velocity declines enough that the FA can't work up in the zone, he is likely a back end or AAAA SP. He is almost completely reliant on beating batters up in the zone with that plus velocity, and without it he's basically Sims/Wisler. I would suggest not extending him, and looking to trade him the moment signs of velocity loss appear.

This is absolutely right. There is little reason to cottle these young pitchers. The attrition rate is so high you should just use the asset until it no longer performs. Pitch them while they are cheap and worry about extending them once they are proven commodities. Most all young pitcher extension are turn out subpar. On the good side is Archer, who is nothing special or on the bad side you end up with a broken down player.

Heck, paying proven pitchers rarely yields surplus value. If you are going to keep drafting pitchers like the Braves, get 3-5 years out of a guy then trade him if he still has value and replace with a new young guy.

[Southcack77]

Wilson showed a 3 pitch mix last night: FA (62), SL (13), CH (12). As per EL's latest in person report, Wilson pounded the upper half of the zone with his FA to good effect.

I think that's the deal with Wilson...as soon as the velocity declines enough that the FA can't work up in the zone, he is likely a back end or AAAA SP. He is almost completely reliant on beating batters up in the zone with that plus velocity, and without it he's basically Sims/Wisler. I would suggest not extending him, and looking to trade him the moment signs of velocity loss appear.

He was locating above average gas on the outer edge of the plate for most of the night.

Was getting some swings at balls that ended well outside of the zone for whatever reason.

Slider must look good coming out of his hand.

I'd say his above average velocity, quick adoption of a third pitch, quick adjustments at every level, plus his ability in one start to keep the ball away from the hitters might speak well of his ability to age gracefully from whatever it is he is now.

[50PoundHead]

Something a little counterintuitive in that he's been a ground ball pitcher and that has basically held even as he works up in the zone.

I urge caution more than others with young pitchers. They aren't finished projects and I worry at times that if they are rushed through the system, they'll never become finished projects.

[Southcack77]

This is absolutely right. There is little reason to cottle these young pitchers. The attrition rate is so high you should just use the asset until it no longer performs. Pitch them while they are cheap and worry about extending them once they are proven commodities. Most all young pitcher extension are turn out subpar. On the good side is Archer, who is nothing special or on the bad side you end up with a broken down player.

Heck, paying proven pitchers rarely yields surplus value. If you are going to keep drafting pitchers like the Braves, get 3-5 years out of a guy then trade him if he still has value and replace with a new young guy.

You just paraphrased the stated rationale of the Braves front office in concentrating on developing pitching internally.

They target pitching development in large part so they can exploit young cheap pitching and not pay for quality starts on the open market.

....

I will say that not everything is about surplus value. Surplus value just lets you expand the purchasing power of your payroll.

At some point, you might spend those extra dollars on assets that are properly valued because those properly valued assets may be the only vehicle for increasing the total value of your team.

Just have to be careful in making sure, if you are a team with a limited payroll, that you can maintain the supporting surplus value over the course of that the big contract. Or you are going to start having problems.

[Enscheff]

He was locating above average gas on the outer edge of the plate for most of the night.

Was getting some swings at balls that ended well outside of the zone for whatever reason.

Slider must look good coming out of his hand.

I'd say his above average velocity, quick adoption of a third pitch, quick adjustments at every level, plus his ability in one start to keep the ball away from the hitters might speak well of his ability to age gracefully from whatever it is he is now.

Plus movement and plus control allow pitchers to “age gracefully”.

The attributes you described hold true for nearly every single pitcher that makes the majors.

[Southcack77]

Plus movement and plus control allow pitchers to “age gracefully”.

The attributes you described hold true for nearly every single pitcher that makes the majors.

I know you've conclusively established his entire career path based on his first start, but maybe just let the suspense of the thing linger awhile for those of us who still like a little mystery?

[Enscheff]

I know you've conclusively established his entire career path based on his first start, but maybe just let the suspense of the thing linger awhile for those of us who still like a little mystery?

You resorted to the straw man a little earlier than usual in this one.

I think I’ve proven to be pretty spot on with my assessments of Braves pitchers over the last couple seasons.

You’ve proven to consistently provide nothing but pointless contrarian comments that contribute nothing.

You think Wilson will age gracefully based on attributes that could be attributed to Allard as well. Convert that to something a bit more objective and we will review who was right.

[JxnMissFan]

I know you've conclusively established his entire career path based on his first start, but maybe just let the suspense of the thing linger awhile for those of us who still like a little mystery?

I think Encheff is spot on about Wilson. Up in the zone with no movement is not where you want to live. I was told a long time ago the reason a catcher sets up with his glove below the waist is he doesn’t have to worry about catching pitches above the belt. Pitches above the belt usually get hit.

[Mad Dog Murph]

I agree with what has been said.... But he is only 20 and is just now learning how to pitch. I will hold off on selling the kid short until he gets a little more time under his belt.

[Carp]

I think Encheff is spot on about Wilson. Up in the zone with no movement is not where you want to live. I was told a long time ago the reason a catcher sets up with his glove below the waist is he doesn’t have to worry about catching pitches above the belt. Pitches above the belt usually get hit.

Depends on the batter. If I'm facing Ozzie and I got 2 strikes on him, I'm staying above the zone cause I know he'll swing and pop up to the 2nd baseman or strikeout more than half the time.

[Southcack77]

You resorted to the straw man a little earlier than usual in this one.

I think I’ve proven to be pretty spot on with my assessments of Braves pitchers over the last couple seasons.

You’ve proven to consistently provide nothing but pointless contrarian comments that contribute nothing.

You think Wilson will age gracefully based on attributes that could be attributed to Allard as well. Convert that to something a bit more objective and we will review who was right.

In ten years Wilson likely is throwing harder than Allard is throwing now.

Allard might well figure out how to be a major league pitcher staying away from hitters.

These are unrelated and also not contradictory things.

I don’t want to be argue about how good Wilson is going to be in ten years pitching with less heat.

I don’t know how good he is now. .

[GeorgiaGirl]

If he can keep honing his off speed pitches and pair that with better command, then he'll likely peak as a #2 starter for a couple years before declining due to a velocity decline realistically. Even if not, he's a solid workhorse MOR that already seems like he's going to very quickly become a big favorite because of his bulldog mentality, remembering Kris Medlen.

[JxnMissFan]

Depends on the batter. If I'm facing Ozzie and I got 2 strikes on him, I'm staying above the zone cause I know he'll swing and pop up to the 2nd baseman or strikeout more than half the time.

Ozzie also has his streaks where he hammers high fastballs.

Ozzie is so raw at the plate. He has the talent and youth to believe he can hit anything. Once Ozzie learns the mental / strategy of hitting he will be a beast. His hit tool with a better approach would be fun to watch

[Southcack77]

I think Encheff is spot on about Wilson. Up in the zone with no movement is not where you want to live. I was told a long time ago the reason a catcher sets up with his glove below the waist is he doesn’t have to worry about catching pitches above the belt. Pitches above the belt usually get hit.

I agree.

Losing velocity on a fastball tends to lower its effectiveness to some degree for most locations.

It’s most pronounced middle in and up in the zone.

And all pitchers will lose velocity to some degree (usually, but not always, slowly) as they age.

if Wilson continues pitching exactly as he did in his first start as a 20 year old he should see reduced effectiveness as his velocity diminishes.

I think that’s totally sound analysis that I’ve not disagreed with in any way.

[Enscheff]

EL doubled down on his Fulmer comp for Wislon in his latest chat. He's usually pretty spot on with his scouting reports, so let's take a look at what Wislon showed us in 80 pitches compared to what Fulmer does.

Wilson FA: 95.1 mph (Grade 58.5), 4.9" HMov (Grade 48.6), 8.6" VMov (Grade 46.0), Grade 55/60 overall
Fulmer FA: 96.1 mph (Grade 63.2), 1.6" HMov (Grade 29.9), 8.4" VMov (Grade 44.2), Grade 55/60 overall

Fulmer's FA has half a grade more velocity, but quite a bit less arm side run.

Wilson SL: 82.7 mph (Grade 41.8), 3.2" HMov (Grade 53.6), -0.2" VMov (Grade 58.4), Grade 55 overall
Fulmer SL: 85.7 mph (Grade 54.7), 5.0" HMov (Grade 62.8), -1.1" VMov (Grade 62.7), Grade 65 overall

Fulmer's SL is quite a bit better, close to a full grade better, actually.

Wilson CH: 8.3 mph delta (Grade 52.7), 9.4" HMov (Grade 62.2), 2.7" VMov (Grade 58.9), Grade 55/60 overall
Fulmer CH: 8.2 mph delta (Grade 52.2), 7.0" HMov (Grade 45.2), 0.7" VMov (Grade 67.0), Grade 55/60 overall

Fulmer's CH has more sink and less fade. These pitches grade about equally.

Wilson Command: He appears to have around Grade 45 command now, and his MiLB BB/9 suggests he is capable of getting to 50, and perhaps higher.
Fulmer Command: Career MLB BB/9 of 2.48 suggests Grade 60 command, and he has flashed even better previously at the MLB level.

The main difference is Fulmer also uses the following SI quite often...

Fulmer SI: 95.8 mph (Grade 67.5), 8.2" HMov (Grade 48.1), 5.7" VMov (Grade 49.2), Grade 60/65 overall

Does Wilson have a plus SI in his back pocket, just waiting to unleash it at the MLB level? Reports suggest he scrapped it in favor of the FA, so that's some indication it wasn't working out.

So that makes Wilson the equivalent of Fulmer minus a full grade on the SL, at least a full grade on the command, and an entire plus pitch in the SI. Fulmer was a legit #3 or better in 2016 and 2017, and is closer to a #4 this year due to a hiccup in his command.

What do you get when you take a #3, remove a full grade from his SL, worsen his command a full grade, and remove a plus SI from his arsenal entirely? You get Bryse Wilson, a #4 who can climb to fringe #3 status with improved control and dialing in the SL a bit...all the while maintaining the velocity on his FA.

Or...exactly what I said he was in my original write up...

[auyushu]

What do you get when you take a #3, remove a full grade from his SL, worsen his command a full grade, and remove a plus SI from his arsenal entirely? You get Bryse Wilson, a #4 who can climb to fringe #3 status with improved control and dialing in the SL a bit...all the while maintaining the velocity on his FA.

Or...exactly what I said he was in my original write up...

I think the one thing that gives Wilson a chance for a bit more upside than that is he literally pretty much didn't have much of anything in the way of a changeup when he was drafted, but he's jumped up to a 55-60 type grade with only 2 years of using it after not even being fringe average when drafted. He could have a bit more development with that pitch left, which could drive him to high end #3/Fulmer type status. Pretty unlikely he gets any higher than that without alot of breaking ball or control improvement, but I don't think Fulmer type ability is out of line in a year or two given his fastball movement (assuming what he showed the other night is typical anyway).

[Enscheff]

Plus Wilson is only 20. At that age it isn’t much of a stretch that stuff improves.

[BeanieAntics]

Plus Wilson is only 20. At that age it isn’t much of a stretch that stuff improves.

This is the big caveat in all of this. Right now he isn't Michael Fulmer, but he has a better chance of turning into a really good pitcher than a guy with similar stuff that is 24.

[Super]

This is the big caveat in all of this. Right now he isn't Michael Fulmer, but he has a better chance of turning into a really good pitcher than a guy with similar stuff that is 24.

was michael fulmer a finished product with declining velo at 20?