GDT: PHILS vs BRAVES [Game 3]

[Southcack77]

One reason why you might not want to overtax your bullpen with a big lead is that you don’t really control whether or not your starters perform in a given start.

[thethe]

Are we going to get an update every time an analytics move doesn't work out?

When they are bad? Sure

[sturg33]

When they are bad? Sure

Well that's going to get quite annoying. You're basically saying a blackjack player should hit on 18 based on his gut, rather than the odds... Doesn't mean he won't hit a 3, but it's a terrible move.

Also, analytics will almost ALWAYS advise against intentional walks...

[nsacpi]

Not to get philosophical but those are pretty much the same considerations managers have been looking at all along.

Yes. Pretty much. But as was noted in an exchange with another poster some things have changed. One is an increase in the supply of high effort, high strikeout relievers. The other is that there is probably a more precise understanding on the part of teams of what happens to a starter the third time through the order. That understanding has been around for a long time, but teams have really fine-tuned their analysis of this. A third change is that teams have a greater appreciation of platoon matchups. Again this is something that has been around a long time, but there is a more precise quantification of the benefits of getting these matchups right.

[Enscheff]

And according to Fangraphs it shows that 8 of the 9 at bats with a ball in play had it against the shift for Neck. (Homers don't count in this). So yeah that's a fail right there.

How does a team rely on analytics that are wrong?

Did those same analysts tell them it was smart to sign Santana and push Hoskins to LF?

I’m thinking the Phillies might be dumber than the pre-AA Braves.

[Enscheff]

Are we going to get an update every time an analytics move doesn't work out?

I’ll be sure to counter those updates with an update every time analytics works, as well as every time tehteh is wrong.

I will be quite busy.

[Enscheff]

Yes. Pretty much. But as was noted in an exchange with another poster some things have changed. One is an increase in the supply of high effort, high strikeout relievers. The other is that there is probably a more precise understanding on the part of teams of what happens to a starter the third time through the order. That understanding has been around for a long time, but teams have really fine-tuned their analysis of this. A third change is that teams have a greater appreciation of platoon matchups. Again this is something that has been around a long time, but there is a more precise quantification of the benefits of getting these matchups right.

Teams are also shuttling pitchers with options between AAA and MLB much more now. There will be no shortage of low leverage arms to soak up innings more effectively than tiring back end starters used to handle.

[thethe]

I’ll be sure to counter those updates with an update every time analytics works, as well as every time tehteh is wrong.

I will be quite busy.

I'm always willing to receive constructive criticism. Thank you.

[Enscheff]

I'm always willing to receive constructive criticism. Thank you.

It’s like you enjoy always being wrong. Literally...always.

[nsacpi]

FYI - Boone just made a strategical move to walk the bases loaded to pitch to smoke. Smoke then hit a grand slam.

He could have faced Donaldson who is getting older and is hurt. Just another example where the numbers don't tell everything.

It was an interesting move. Robertson has very strong reverse splits. Given that, I think the move made sense. The right move doesn't always work.

[thethe]

It was an interesting move. Robertson has very strong reverse splits. Given that, I think the move made sense. The right move doesn't always work.

I agree with this but the direction of the two hitters careers to go along with Donaldson not being healthy made the decision pretty easy in my eyes.

[jpx7]

Are we going to get an update every time an analytics move doesn't work out?

Not belaboring every point to death was a real market inefficiency.

[thethe]

Not belaboring every point to death was a real market inefficiency.

You have a witty response to everything don't you?

[jpx7]

You have a witty response to everything don't you?

Just trying to optimize my posting to maximize the collective return on all those dues we pay this bit-farm.

[msstate7]

Sundays without the Braves playing during mlb season suck

[50PoundHead]

That's the trend clearly. But I think there is still a significant grey area that will depend on the manager's discretion. How much you let the starter go through the opposing lineup more than twice will depend upon among other things:

1) How well the starter is throwing
2) His pitch count
3) Quality of pen
4) How rested the pen is
5) Platoon matchups
6) How high leverage any situation is
7) Related to 6 above, the score of the game
8) The schedule (when do the rest days fall in particular)
9) Whether an opportunity to pinch hit for the starter presents itself (and the kind of situation that opportunity presents itself)

There are going to be a lot of situations that could be argued either way based upon the above. I thought the Nola move could have gone either way.

Based on the list above, the Braves made the right call yesterday to bring McCarthy back out for the 6th. And they made the right call to take him out after he started laboring and let two of the first three hitters get on base.

When Newcomb pitches tomorrow, I would guess in addition to getting through the lineup twice they will look at trying to get him to get a couple more outs if the gnats have some lefties at the top of the lineup (and Eaton and Harper are likely to hit leadoff and third). I doubt he would face say Zimmerman a third time in any sort of high leverage situation.

All good points. I agree that the Nola call could have gone either way. It's early in the season, so an early hook is more likely. And we are in the era of the big fastball (or greater reliance on the big fastball), so there is going to be more fatigue earlier in games.

But to enscheff's point about the shuttling of pitchers between AAA and the majors to absorb innings, that may or may not work. Those guys can absorb innings, but can they do it effectively?

I guess my point is that somewhere along the line, managers are just going to have to roll the dice regardless of what the gut or analytics say. This isn't football with an active roster you can adjust to every down/distance. There are going to be times managers make the right move that doesn't work or forego the right move with a positive result. I think one problem the fans have now--and this is both analytically-driven and "guts" fans--is that they want a move, any move, as opposed to letting the situation unfold.

I think the weakness that showed up in Kapler this weekend (and he's not alone and we'll see it a lot during the season) is that he pulled out all stops to win each game. There's the old saw about "you win a third, lose a third, and the last third makes the difference." Not to add another cliche, but the baseball season is a marathon and not a sprint and teams need to take the long view until they can't take the long view anymore.

[msstate7]

Had no idea ohtani could throw 100

[jpx7]

All good points. I agree that the Nola call could have gone either way. It's early in the season, so an early hook is more likely. And we are in the era of the big fastball (or greater reliance on the big fastball), so there is going to be more fatigue earlier in games.

But to enscheff's point about the shuttling of pitchers between AAA and the majors to absorb innings, that may or may not work. Those guys can absorb innings, but can they do it effectively?

I guess my point is that somewhere along the line, managers are just going to have to roll the dice regardless of what the gut or analytics say. This isn't football with an active roster you can adjust to every down/distance. There are going to be times managers make the right move that doesn't work or forego the right move with a positive result. I think one problem the fans have now--and this is both analytically-driven and "guts" fans--is that they want a move, any move, as opposed to letting the situation unfold.

I think the weakness that showed up in Kapler this weekend (and he's not alone and we'll see it a lot during the season) is that he pulled out all stops to win each game. There's the old saw about "you win a third, lose a third, and the last third makes the difference." Not to add another cliche, but the baseball season is a marathon and not a sprint and teams need to take the long view until they can't take the long view anymore.

Largely agree with you here, 50, but just want to throw one more consideration into the mix: the idea that managers need to manage like this in-season so guys are comfortable being deployed like this once they hit the postseason. I'm not sure I agree, and I'm skeptical that there's any reliable data to evince such speculation, but it's definitely an idea I've heard bandied, including during the previous postseason.

[50PoundHead]

Largely agree with you here, 50, but just want to throw one more consideration into the mix: the idea that managers need to manage like this in-season so guys are comfortable being deployed like this once they hit the postseason. I'm not sure I agree, and I'm skeptical that there's any reliable data to evince such speculation, but it's definitely an idea I've heard bandied, including during the previous postseason.

That's true, but I think the season needs to unfold to some extent before a team starts thinking about the post-season. I think the Dodgers did it right last year with Maeda late in the 2017 season and I think that will start earlier than the last couple of weeks for playoff contenders this season. For teams that clinch relatively early, getting that 5th/6th starter innings out of the bullpen will be important. The playoffs rarely feature a 5th starter, so if that guy has a quality arm that can absorb multiple post-season innings, that guy should be slotted into that role a little earlier. The trend that has to be reversed here is that the recent mindset of for relief pitchers is "do one inning and hand over the ball."

[nsacpi]

Largely agree with you here, 50, but just want to throw one more consideration into the mix: the idea that managers need to manage like this in-season so guys are comfortable being deployed like this once they hit the postseason. I'm not sure I agree, and I'm skeptical that there's any reliable data to evince such speculation, but it's definitely an idea I've heard bandied, including during the previous postseason.

there are some things you can prepare for in September if your team is headed to the playoffs...for example having a Kimbrel get used to four or five out saves