Top pitching prospect results

[smootness]

I just wanted to take a look at where our guys are so far in relation to where they have been. I've listed them according to my own personal ranking of them, but it doesn't really matter. Based on this, a lot of our guys have improved their K/BB ratio. Most notably, Soroka is obviously looking great in AA at 19, Newcomb continues to incrementally improve as he moves up, Weigel is also improving as he moves up, Gohara has really turned it on, and Touki is pitching much better than it seems. Wentz has also pitched well so far, and Wilson continues to quietly look great.

On the other hand, Fried really needs to get healthy and bounce back. And while his results have been good, especially at 19, it would be nice to see Allard's K rate improve.

Still a small sample this year, but as most of them have made 5 starts, it's at least interesting to see.

Soroka
2017 (AA): 5 GS - 26.1 IP | 3.42 ERA, 2.54 xFIP; 9.2 K/9, 1.0 BB/9, 9.00 K/BB; 0.987 WHIP, 7.9 H/9, 1.4 HR/9
2016 (A): 24 GS - 143.0 IP | 3.02 ERA, 3.21 xFIP; 7.9 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, 3.91 K/BB; 1.133 WHIP, 8.2 H/9, 0.2 HR/9

Allard
2017 (AA): 5 GS - 27.0 IP | 1.67 ERA, 3.80 xFIP; 5.7 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 2.43 K/BB; 1.074 WHIP, 7.3 H/9, 1.0 HR/9
2016 (A): 11 GS - 60.1 IP | 3.73 ERA, 3.46 xFIP; 9.2 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 3.10 K/BB; 1.227 WHIP, 8.1 H/9, 0.7 HR/9

Anderson
2017 (A): 4 GS - 18.2 IP | 1.93 ERA, 3.26 xFIP; 14.0 K/9, 4.8 BB/9, 2.90 K/BB; 1.018 WHIP, 4.3 H/9, 0.0 HR/9
2016 (Rk): 10 GS - 39.2 IP | 2.04 ERA, ~3.1 xFIP; 8.2 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 3.00 K/BB; 1.134 WHIP, 7.5 H/9, 0.2 HR/9

Fried
2017 (AA): 5 GS - 21.2 IP | 6.23 ERA, 4.53 xFIP; 8.3 K/9, 5.4 BB/9, 1.54 K/BB; 1.523 WHIP, 8.3 H/9, 1.2 HR/9
2016 (A): 20 GS - 103 IP | 3.93 ERA, 3.39 xFIP; 9.8 K/9, 4.1 BB/9, 2.38 K/BB; 1.301 WHIP, 7.6 H/9, 0.9 HR/9
2013 (A): 23 GS - 118.2 IP | 3.49 ERA, 3.82 xFIP; 7.6 K/9, 4.2 BB/9, 1.79 K/BB; 1.374 WHIP, 8.1 H/9, 0.5 HR/9

Newcomb
2017 (AAA): 5 GS - 26.1 IP | 3.08 ERA, 2.89 FIP, 3.30 xFIP; 12.0 K/9, 5.1 BB/9, 2.33 K/BB; 1.367 WHIP, 7.2 H/9, 0.3 HR/9
2016 (AA): 27 GS - 140 IP | 3.86 ERA, 3.19 FIP, 3.62 xFIP; 9.8 K/9, 4.6 BB/9, 2.14 K/BB; 1.314 WHIP, 7.3 H/9, 0.3 HR/9
2015 (A-AA): 27 GS - 136 IP | 2.38 ERA, ~3.30 FIP, ~3.60 xFIP; 11.1 K/9, 5.0 BB/9, 2.21 K/BB; 1.272 WHIP, 6.4 H/9, 0.3 HR/9

Gohara
2017 (A+): 5 GS - 26.0 IP | 1.73 ERA, 2.00 FIP, 2.55 xFIP; 9.3 K/9, 1.7 BB/9, 5.4 K/BB; 1.077 WHIP, 8.0 H/9, 0.0 HR/9
2016 (A): 10 GS - 54.1 IP | 1.82 ERA, 2.61 FIP, 2.82 xFIP; 9.9 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 3.0 K/BB; 1.178 WHIP, 7.3 H/9, 0.2 HR/9
2015 (A-): 14 GS - 53.2 IP | 6.20 ERA, 4.27 FIP, 3.99 xFIP; 10.4 K/9, 5.4 BB/9, 1.94 K/BB; 1.845 WHIP, 11.2 H/9, 0.7 HR/9

Touki
2017 (A+): 5 GS - 24.1 IP | 8.14 ERA, 3.95 FIP, 3.41 xFIP; 10.7 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 4.14 K/BB; 1.315 WHIP, 9.2 H/9, 1.1 HR/9
2016 (A): 24 GS - 132.1 IP | 3.88 ERA, 4.56 FIP, 4.34 xFIP; 8.7 K/9, 4.8 BB/9, 1.80 K/BB; 1.330 WHIP, 7.1 H/9, 0.9 HR/9
2015 (A): 17 GS - 87.2 IP | 4.83 ERA, ~5.2 FIP, ~4.6 xFIP; 6.9 K/9, 4.9 BB/9, 1.40 K/BB; 1.357 WHIP, 7.3 H/9, 1.0 HR/9

Weigel
2017 (AA): 5 GS - 26.1 IP | 2.73 ERA, 2.40 FIP, 2.96 xFIP; 9.6 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 3.11 K/BB; 1.177 WHIP, 7.5 H/9, 0.3 HR/9
2016 (A): 21 GS - 129 IP | 2.51 ERA, 3.41 FIP, 3.41 xFIP; 9.4 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 2.87 K/BB; 1.078 WHIP, 6.4 H/9, 0.5 HR/9
2015 (Rk): 14 GS - 51.2 IP | 4.53 ERA, 3.87 FIP, 4.06 xFIP; 8.5 K/9, 4.5 BB/9, 1.88 K/BB; 1.529 WHIP, 9.2 H/9, 0.3 HR/9

Wentz
2017 (A): 4 GS - 20.0 IP | 2.70 ERA, 2.21 FIP, 3.15 xFIP; 9.0 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 4.00 K/BB; 1.350 WHIP, 9.9 H/9, 0.0 HR/9
2016 (Rk): 12 GS - 44 IP | 3.68 ERA, ~2.9 FIP, ~3.7 xFIP; 10.8 K/9, 5.1 BB/9, 2.12 K/BB; 1.341 WHIP, 7.0 H/9, 0.0 HR/9

Sims
2017 (AAA): 4 GS - 23.2 IP | 2.66 ERA, 3.44 FIP, 3.80 xFIP; 8.0 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 3.50 K/BB; 0.718 WHIP, 4.2 H/9, 0.8 HR/9
2016 (AA-AAA): 27 GS - 141 IP | 4.98 ERA, ~4.7 FIP, ~4.3 xFIP; 10.1 K/9, 5.9 BB/9, 1.73 K/BB; 1.504 WHIP, 7.7 H/9, 1.0 HR/9
2015 (A+-AA): 18 GS - 87.2 IP | 4.12 ERA, ~3.6 FIP, ~3.8 xFIP; 9.55 K/9, 5.34 BB/9, 1.79 K/BB; 1.34 WHIP, 7.0 H/9, 0.3 HR/9
2014 (A+): 28 GS - 156.1 IP | 4.20 ERA, 4.56 FIP, 4.64 xFIP; 6.2 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 1.88 K/BB; 1.299 WHIP, 8.4 H/9, 0.7 HR/9
2013 (A): 18 GS - 116.2 IP | 2.62 ERA, 3.09 FIP, 3.56 xFIP; 10.3 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 2.91 K/BB; 1.106 WHIP, 6.4 H/9, 0.2 HR/9

Sanchez
2017 (A+): 5 GS - 23.0 IP | 3.52 ERA, 4.54 FIP, 4.19 xFIP; 7.4 K/9, 4.3 BB/9, 1.73 K/BB; 1.522 WHIP, 9.4 H/9, 0.8 HR/9
2016 (A): 23 GS - 119.1 IP | 4.75 ERA, 4.68 FIP, 4.34 xFIP; 7.8 K/9, 4.1 BB/9, 1.91 K/BB; 1.450 WHIP, 9.0 H/9, 1.1 HR/9
2015 (A): 10 GS - 39.2 IP | 5.45 ERA, 4.95 FIP, 4.89 xFIP; 7.0 K/9, 4.8 BB/9, 1.48 K/BB; 1.462 WHIP, 8.4 H/9, 0.7 HR/9

Wilson
2017 (A): 5 GS - 22.2 IP | 2.38 ERA, 3.06 FIP, 3.20 xFIP; 9.1 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 2.88 K/BB; 0.971 WHIP, 5.6 H/9, 0.4 HR/9
2016 (Rk): 6 GS - 26.2 IP | 0.68 ERA, 2.06 FIP, 2.39 xFIP; 9.8 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 3.63 K/BB; 0.900 WHIP, 5.4 H/9, 0.0 HR/9

Harrington
2017 (A+): 5 GS - 28.1 IP | 2.54 ERA, 2.55 FIP, 3.08 xFIP; 6.7 K/9, 1.0 BB/9, 7.0 K/BB; 1.129 WHIP, 9.2 H/9, 0.0 HR/9
2016 (Rk): 1 GS - 14.2 IP | 2.45 ERA, 3.73 FIP, 3.72 xFIP; 9.2 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 3.0 K/BB; 1.295 WHIP, 8.6 H/9, 0.6 HR/9

Withrow
2017 (AA): 5 GS - 26.0 IP | 2.08 ERA, 4.23 FIP, 3.38 xFIP; 7.6 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 2.75 K/BB; 0.769 WHIP, 4.2 H/9, 1.4 HR/9
2016 (A+): 24 GS - 120.2 IP | 3.80 ERA, 4.47 FIP, 4.21 xFIP; 9.8 K/9, 5.1 BB/9, 1.93 K/BB; 1.392 WHIP, 7.5 H/9, 0.8 HR/9
2015 (Rk): 13 GS - 48.0 IP | 3.56 ERA, 3.85 FIP, 4.33 xFIP; 6.6 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 2.19 K/BB; 1.333 WHIP, 9.0 H/9, 0.4 HR/9

[CJ9]

Really interesting numbers. Thanks for putting the time in to do that.

[jpack1]

That's 14 guys. How many make 100 MLB starts?

I'll say 6. Which would be be pretty solid IMO.

[bravesfanMatt]

That's 14 guys. How many make 100 MLB starts?

I'll say 6. Which would be be pretty solid IMO.

I say at least 10 will make a start. Even Blair made MLB starts.. how many will have 20 MLB starts is the bigger question.

[Julio3000]

That's 14 guys. How many make 100 MLB starts?

I'll say 6. Which would be be pretty solid IMO.

That would be a tad more than solid.

[Julio3000]

I realize that we have a crop of young pitchers which may be unprecedented in our history, but I think that it is reasonable to guess that maybe one out of three of them who makes the bigs might make 100 starts.

So if we assume (and this is pretty charitable, IMO) that 9 of these 14 make the bigs, it's probably more reasonable to guess that 3 of those might make 100 MLB starts.

Remember the hype around Teheran, Vizcaino, and Delgado? Of those three, one is going to end up hitting that milestone (well, he already has).

[chipchildress]

who gets traded?

[jpack1]

You guys make good points. I was just off the cuff with 6. Very good would be 3 or 4

[Carp]

How does Touki improve in nearly every statistical category but have an astronomical ERA?

[nsacpi]

How does Touki improve in nearly every statistical category but have an astronomical ERA?

era often misleading...inflated in his case by high babip

[Carp]

I know, it's just odd. Only the hits/9 took a high jump. Otherwise his numbers were the same, or in most cases much better.

A guy with a 10+ k/9 and a 4.00+ k/bb ratio ought to have an ERA in the low 2's.

[bravesguy]

I know, it's just odd. Only the hits/9 took a high jump. Otherwise his numbers were the same, or in most cases much better.

A guy with a 10+ k/9 and a 4.00+ k/bb ratio ought to have an ERA in the low 2's.

I have not done much research into the runs he has allowed, but what jumps out to me is that he has mental weakness so far. Great for 4+ innings, but then something happens (bad call, error, hit a good pitch) and he has a let down and allows several big hits to follows. Kind of like Folty does. So his line may end up with 4 hits and 4 runs where he pitched great other than a 1/3 of an inning.

Those things can be fixed as he matures and learns how to pitch (much like Folty is).

[rawwr]

I have not done much research into the runs he has allowed, but what jumps out to me is that he has mental weakness so far. Great for 4+ innings, but then something happens (bad call, error, hit a good pitch) and he has a let down and allows several big hits to follows. Kind of like Folty does. So his line may end up with 4 hits and 4 runs where he pitched great other than a 1/3 of an inning.

Those things can be fixed as he matures and learns how to pitch (much like Folty is).

I'd be careful assuming that's the case unless you saw it happening in person. A lot of guys like Touki with questionable command and only two pitches will struggle at that point just because they've thrown a lot of pitches and they're facing the opponent's lineup a third time.