The Reverse Pennant Chase

[bravesfanMatt]

Win total is irrelevant this year. Performances are not.

We can perform and still loose. That is best case but I just can't route to loose no matter how much I want to.

[CJ9]

Young players playing well and improving does nothing but help us.

It's fun to say, but what happens in a two-week span is meaningless in terms of showing which young players are actually improving.

[thewupk]

It's fun to say, but what happens in a two-week span is meaningless in terms of showing which young players are actually improving.

While true. 2 weeks is nothing. I'd rather not have the Wislers and Blairs to continue to get their **** handed to them.

[CK86]

So frustrating, just lose you idiots. You suck all season and now that they can actually help the franchise in the long-term by continuing to suck, instead they start winning. I hope they clean house on the coaching staff entirely for this disaster of a September.

[Preacher]

Honestly this is so silly -- I'll never understand why its so hard for a team to embrace the 'end-season' tank.

Winning these game -- and I'll add that its nice to see Blair/Ender/Freddie/Wisler...... ect... do well -- but winning these games not only shouldn't be a priority, it should be viewed as a failure on a strategic level. You only get so many chances at the #1 overall pick and to be as ridiculously bad this season as Atlanta has been and cough up that opportunity isn't just unfortunate, it should be viewed as a failure. That #1 pick (and the slot money) is FAR more important than the last two weeks of the season.

So how should you do it? Because obviously you want to still throw your young players out there -- and you want them to do well. Here's the thing, if Atlanta wins a game because Wisler throws 7 great innings, Ender/Swanson get on base and Freedie drives them in and John Gant/Cabrera/Ellis or whatever finish it off from the bullpen, GREAT. That's fine.

What I think is silly is winning games because Jim Johnson is closing every inning out, because Tehrean is throwing a good game, because Adonis is in a hot streak, because Kemp/Markakis are hitting well - those factors shouldn't even be in play IMO.

I said this awhile ago, and I fully understand teams don't do it -- but JT should have been shut down several starts ago - whats the point? Wouldn't it make more sense to limit some innings on his arm, give those innings to a younger pitcher who needs to prove himself, and AT THE SAME time slightly increase our chances at the #1 pick. We know who Teheran is, he's great - him pitching out the rest of this year does nothing for us. Rio Ruiz should be playing every day -- I think we have a decent idea of who Adonis is - let Ruiz hit.

Mallex Smith when he's healthy should be starting every day -- whats the point of running Markakis/Kemp out there right now? Let some of our young guys that will be fighting for bullpen spots next year, pitch in high-leverage situations -- why is Johnson pitching every 9th? With the way he's finished this year, he's likely not coming back to Atlanta next season anyway, but hey at least he helped us close out a few games that removed our chance at the #1 pick.

This would have been the perfect opportunity to really tank it up at the end of the season -- we are leaving Turner anyway, we have some exciting young players breaking in, we were utterly hopeless this year...... just a failed opportunity.

[Nerfherders]

On the other hand, I took extreme pleasure watching the Braves dismantle the New York Mets this week. EXTREME pleasure. I don't care if we get the second or third pick, that was great, and I hope it knocks them out. I'm sure all the players and coaches feel the same way.

[bravesfanMatt]

I have been all about the losing to get the #1 pick, but I have embraced this team and happy to see them building a winning culture. Human nature is a funny animal and something as little as #finishingstrong can have a huge impact come spring next year. I have wanted the bonus pool that goes with the #1 pick, but with 5 games back, I don't see any way to catch the twins, so it is now time to just watch and enjoy the product on the field.

I also would be surprised if JJ is NOT back in Atl. next year. He has been better than expected since coming back and worth a mini 3 year deal that could easily be flipped at deadline or off season 2017.. or utilized as a strong back end leverage pitcher and mentor for younger guys coming up in the pen.

[smootness]

Honestly this is so silly -- I'll never understand why its so hard for a team to embrace the 'end-season' tank.

Winning these game -- and I'll add that its nice to see Blair/Ender/Freddie/Wisler...... ect... do well -- but winning these games not only shouldn't be a priority, it should be viewed as a failure on a strategic level. You only get so many chances at the #1 overall pick and to be as ridiculously bad this season as Atlanta has been and cough up that opportunity isn't just unfortunate, it should be viewed as a failure. That #1 pick (and the slot money) is FAR more important than the last two weeks of the season.

So how should you do it? Because obviously you want to still throw your young players out there -- and you want them to do well. Here's the thing, if Atlanta wins a game because Wisler throws 7 great innings, Ender/Swanson get on base and Freedie drives them in and John Gant/Cabrera/Ellis or whatever finish it off from the bullpen, GREAT. That's fine.

What I think is silly is winning games because Jim Johnson is closing every inning out, because Tehrean is throwing a good game, because Adonis is in a hot streak, because Kemp/Markakis are hitting well - those factors shouldn't even be in play IMO.

I said this awhile ago, and I fully understand teams don't do it -- but JT should have been shut down several starts ago - whats the point? Wouldn't it make more sense to limit some innings on his arm, give those innings to a younger pitcher who needs to prove himself, and AT THE SAME time slightly increase our chances at the #1 pick. We know who Teheran is, he's great - him pitching out the rest of this year does nothing for us. Rio Ruiz should be playing every day -- I think we have a decent idea of who Adonis is - let Ruiz hit.

Mallex Smith when he's healthy should be starting every day -- whats the point of running Markakis/Kemp out there right now? Let some of our young guys that will be fighting for bullpen spots next year, pitch in high-leverage situations -- why is Johnson pitching every 9th? With the way he's finished this year, he's likely not coming back to Atlanta next season anyway, but hey at least he helped us close out a few games that removed our chance at the #1 pick.

This would have been the perfect opportunity to really tank it up at the end of the season -- we are leaving Turner anyway, we have some exciting young players breaking in, we were utterly hopeless this year...... just a failed opportunity.

Because it's not a video game and moves like that do have consequences. You risk losing more fans when you're getting ready to move into a new stadium of it becomes clear you're purposely losing.

And I mean, we're talking about removing Adonis Garcia from the lineup because he's too good? Do you just sit everybody and call up the entire Gwinnett team? That's in no way realistic.

Plus, while having the top pick is an advantage, in addition to having a bigger pool, the difference between 1 and 2 in baseball isn't that great.

[smootness]

I have been all about the losing to get the #1 pick, but I have embraced this team and happy to see them building a winning culture. Human nature is a funny animal and something as little as #finishingstrong can have a huge impact come spring next year. I have wanted the bonus pool that goes with the #1 pick, but with 5 games back, I don't see any way to catch the twins, so it is now time to just watch and enjoy the product on the field.

I also would be surprised if JJ is NOT back in Atl. next year. He has been better than expected since coming back and worth a mini 3 year deal that could easily be flipped at deadline or off season 2017.. or utilized as a strong back end leverage pitcher and mentor for younger guys coming up in the pen.

All of this.

[Horsehide Harry]

Because it's not a video game and moves like that do have consequences. You risk losing more fans when you're getting ready to move into a new stadium of it becomes clear you're purposely losing.

And I mean, we're talking about removing Adonis Garcia from the lineup because he's too good? Do you just sit everybody and call up the entire Gwinnett team? That's in no way realistic.

Plus, while having the top pick is an advantage, in addition to having a bigger pool, the difference between 1 and 2 in baseball isn't that great.

I agree with Preacher that the extra pool money is nice but I'm not really worried that much This Year, So Far about not getting 1,1.

1,1 is important if there is a clear 1,1. Hunter Greene looks to be the flavor of the minute right now and he's a HS RHP/SS. They aren't sure if he'll be a Pitcher or hitter which makes him a gamble at 1,1. If he's a HS RHP it makes him a huge gamble since HS RHP have not historically fared well as 1,1 (ignore trends at your peril).

If a clear 1,1 emerges, someone who appears to be a generational type player like AROD or Griffey were when they came out, then 1,1 makes all the difference in the world.

Otherwise, if there is no consensus 1,1 then the team with that pick is under tremendous pressure to get the pick right and I'm not convinced Coppy is ready for that yet.

[smootness]

I agree with Preacher that the extra pool money is nice but I'm not really worried that much This Year, So Far about not getting 1,1.

1,1 is important if there is a clear 1,1. Hunter Greene looks to be the flavor of the minute right now and he's a HS RHP/SS. They aren't sure if he'll be a Pitcher or hitter which makes him a gamble at 1,1. If he's a HS RHP it makes him a huge gamble since HS RHP have not historically fared well as 1,1 (ignore trends at your peril).

If a clear 1,1 emerges, someone who appears to be a generational type player like AROD or Griffey were when they came out, then 1,1 makes all the difference in the world.

Otherwise, if there is no consensus 1,1 then the team with that pick is under tremendous pressure to get the pick right and I'm not convinced Coppy is ready for that yet.

I agree with you for the most part. The fact that at this point there seems to be several guys in the same group at the top makes 1,1 an advantage but not a severe one.

But I'm not sure why you're not convinced Coppy is ready for the 'pressure' of getting #1 right. He's drafted really stinking well the last two years.

[Horsehide Harry]

I agree with you for the most part. The fact that at this point there seems to be several guys in the same group at the top makes 1,1 an advantage but not a severe one.

But I'm not sure why you're not convinced Coppy is ready for the 'pressure' of getting #1 right. He's drafted really stinking well the last two years.

Yes he's done well. But the pressure to do well then would be nothing compared to what he would face with a 1,1 where there was no consensus pick. So far as a GM he's done a lot of good things but seems to have trouble where there isn't a clear defined path that no one can question. I think he's shown a lack of maturity at times. But I will give him this: He has stepped up and faced the music like a man regarding the Olivera trade. He's not still trying to justify it away as some type of good deal, even though you could tie the ultimate success/failure of the deal overall on the Braves career value of Wentz and Rodriguez at this point.

[Preacher]

Because it's not a video game and moves like that do have consequences. You risk losing more fans when you're getting ready to move into a new stadium of it becomes clear you're purposely losing.

And I mean, we're talking about removing Adonis Garcia from the lineup because he's too good? Do you just sit everybody and call up the entire Gwinnett team? That's in no way realistic.

Plus, while having the top pick is an advantage, in addition to having a bigger pool, the difference between 1 and 2 in baseball isn't that great.

Agree to disagree on a lot of this -- what fans are we losing at this point? And its not about taking Adonis out of the lineup because he's too good, its about removing a hot hitter while ALSO getting a better look at Rio Ruiz. I certainly wasn't advocating 'sit everybody and call up Gwinnett'

I'm advocating resting more of the veterans - limiting the innings on guys like Teheran, using these innings to get extended looks at guys like Mallex/Ruiz/Blair/Gant.... through that process I'd like to think we also would have had a better chance at avoiding meaningless wins and securing the top pick.

I understand most disagree with me, but the extra slot money is a big deal, more than a million dollars going from #1->#2, that right there is enough to help land a Kyle Muller later in the draft. If we fall to #3 or #4, now you're talking about slicing 3 or 4 million off your bonus pool. That would be a ridiculous cost to get a couple 'feel-good' wins at the end of a lost season.

[smootness]

Yes he's done well. But the pressure to do well then would be nothing compared to what he would face with a 1,1 where there was no consensus pick. So far as a GM he's done a lot of good things but seems to have trouble where there isn't a clear defined path that no one can question. I think he's shown a lack of maturity at times. But I will give him this: He has stepped up and faced the music like a man regarding the Olivera trade. He's not still trying to justify it away as some type of good deal, even though you could tie the ultimate success/failure of the deal overall on the Braves career value of Wentz and Rodriguez at this point.

I'm curious as to what you think the trouble he's found without a clear defined path is.

The clear defined path certainly wasn't to take Anderson at 3, but that's working out pretty well so far.

[smootness]

Agree to disagree on a lot of this -- what fans are we losing at this point? And its not about taking Adonis out of the lineup because he's too good, its about removing a hot hitter while ALSO getting a better look at Rio Ruiz. I certainly wasn't advocating 'sit everybody and call up Gwinnett'

I'm advocating resting more of the veterans - limiting the innings on guys like Teheran, using these innings to get extended looks at guys like Mallex/Ruiz/Blair/Gant.... through that process I'd like to think we also would have had a better chance at avoiding meaningless wins and securing the top pick.

I understand most disagree with me, but the extra slot money is a big deal, more than a million dollars going from #1->#2, that right there is enough to help land a Kyle Muller later in the draft. If we fall to #3 or #4, now you're talking about slicing 3 or 4 million off your bonus pool. That would be a ridiculous cost to get a couple 'feel-good' wins at the end of a lost season.

But I don't know what you think the answer is. We are starting Blair...and we're winning. Mallex is not a worse player than a guy like Markakis. We could sit Garcia for Ruiz, but Garcia's not that good; Ruiz could be just as good in the lineup. There just isn't a clear strategy beside 'sit everybody' that would guarantee you're going to lose games. I mean, the roster we're running out there is the same one that was easily the worst team in baseball for much of the year, it's not like we're running out a murderer's row.

And you can't have players thinking for a second about not winning a game. They just got hot at the end of the year, it is what it is. There's no way to guarantee yourself the top pick. We still have a pretty good chance to be #2, which is plenty fine.

[skillet]

Damn 6th win in a row. Couldn't have come at a worse time and frustrating as hell. Not only do we now have essentially no shot at the #1 draft slot, but it is very possible we could screw this up all the way to dropping to around the 5th or 6th pick and costing us several million in slot money.

[cajunrevenge]

If you don't play to win the games then don't be surprised when top 5 picks are an annual tradition.

[50PoundHead]

It's called professional baseball for a reason.

Again, I saw the team in Minnesota. They won 2-0, but I don't think I've ever been more disgusted watching a baseball team in my life. They were dead. Listless. Aybar was goofing around between innings and A.J. was having more fun torturing the ball boy than he was calling pitches. They were playing like they would have had trouble beating Gwinnett. That's no way to build a winning culture.

Do I wish we had secured the number one overall pick? Sure, I do. The financial leeway would have been great to have. As long as they were playing in a professional manner they could have gone 50-112 and it wouldn't have mattered that much to me. I'm not all-in on the recall of Swanson or the acquisition of Kemp in terms of the long-term implications, but I think having them on the team put, for a lack of a better term, a spring in everyone's step and they've been more dialed in as of late. Would they contended if those guys had been here all season? Not on this planet, but that kind of misses the point. The team needed to be jolted out of its somnambulism for its own good.

[nsacpi]

Looks like we're gonna catch the Reds and maybe Arizona and/or San Diego. Or they are gonna catch us if you prefer to look at it that way.

I think one of the things that hasn't been mentioned much is that in the first half, most our hitters had BABIPs below their career norms, and this has evened out and then some in the second half. Our final record is going to be more of a fair reflection of the kind of team we had than the records for the first and second halves, both of which are fairly misleading imo.

[thewupk]

Speaking of BABIP. I ran Ender through xBABIP based on his batting profile. In the 2nd half he has a .396 BABIP entering tonight with a .346 xBABIP. So yeah he has been getting lucky (while still hitting very well) post ASB. That being said on the year he has a .330 BABIP entering tonight with a xBABIP of .322. So he was getting pretty unlucky in the 1st half and it's more or less evened out for the full year. I feel his 2016 year to date stats are pretty much what you can expect next year.