Hall of Fame Ballot Reveals nears 44 percent

[JCarbo76]

The not-so-early returns speak to a possibly unprecedented Hall of Fame election next month. You need 75 percent, and no less than four players are coming up just short.

With 105 ballots revealed by 12/25 (25.2 percent of those issued), well, we'll let the numbers speak for themselves:

Chipper - 98.1%
Thome - 95.2%
Vlad - 94.3%
Edgar 81%
Hoffman - 79%
Clemens - 71.4%
Mussina - 70.5%
Bonds - 70.5%
Schilling - 68%
Walker - 41%
Vizquel - 28.6%
Manny - 28.6%
McGriff - 15.2%
Wagner - 10.5%
Rolen - 10.5%
Sosa - 10.5%
-----
Andruw - 7.6%
Sheffield - 10.5%
Johnny Damon has one vote!

I don't get all the Edgar love. If you look at the top 10 most similar players you see Moises Alou, Magglio Ordonez, John Olerud, Will Clark, Bob Johnson, Bernie Williams, Paul O'Neill, Lance Berkman, Matt Holliday, Ellis Burks, et al. In other words, guys who won't make the HoF--some of whom actually knew which end of the glove to hold.

[JCarbo76]

They have an early death provision (Addie Joss, Ross Youngs), but Thurman Munson didn't get a pass. You would see a helluva debate, stronger than you might expect, if it merely were an career-ending injury. If he simply quit, he would NOT be voted in.

Munson actually played 11 seasons, so he did not need an early death pass. And, by his last season injuries had begun taking their toll, and he probably wouldn't have gotten in, anyway.

[50PoundHead]

Munson actually played 11 seasons, so he did not need an early death pass. And, by his last season injuries had begun taking their toll, and he probably wouldn't have gotten in, anyway.

While Thurman isn't in the Baseball Hall of Fame, I believe his porntasche is in the Porn Hall of Fame as is Sal Fasano's.

[rico43]

Andruw has not gotten another vote. Still needs 13 to stay alive. Time to worry.

[Skeeter31]

I think Andruw will be ok. Less than 30% of the ballots are out and he only needs 13 votes on the remaining 70%. I think he’ll get there.
But I don’t think he’ll ever get in, other than the Veterans Committee. From all the public ballots I’ve read too many people cite his “Cliff” that he fell off in his early 30s.

[rico43]

I think Andruw will be ok. Less than 30% of the ballots are out and he only needs 13 votes on the remaining 70%. I think he’ll get there.
But I don’t think he’ll ever get in, other than the Veterans Committee. From all the public ballots I’ve read too many people cite his “Cliff” that he fell off in his early 30s.

It wouldn't be inappropriate if the Braves put together a proper highlight reel. When he was 18, he was a once-in-a-lifetime prospect

[rico43]

As the vote count passes the 30 percent mark, the very real possibility that Clemens and maybe even Bonds crack the 75 percent barrier this year. That's remarkable progress.

[thewupk]

As the vote count passes the 30 percent mark, the very real possibility that Clemens and maybe even Bonds crack the 75 percent barrier this year. That's remarkable progress.

I doubt it. Thibodaux does a great job with this and on his tracker has the # of votes lost or gained from the previous year. While Bonds and Clemens are hovering around that mark of the votes currently available they have gained 0 and 1 vote respectively from that same group of voters last year. So the majority of voters who said no to them last year simply just haven't been accounted for yet.

Now on the flip side is Vlad who is currently soaring with 90% plus right now. He's already gained 20 votes from voters a year ago. He missed the hall by only 15 votes last year so simply put if the rest of the voters who voted for him last year vote for him again this year then he's going to get in. He won't need to gain any additional support. So I'd say he's all but guaranteed to join Chipper and Thome.

The next interesting case is Edgar. He missed getting elected by 73 votes last year. So far with 30% of the votes he's gained 13 votes. At that same percentage of votes gained he won't get in but it's a big improvement so far. As it stands I don't think he gets in this year but will likely get voted in next season which would be his last on the ballot.

[rico43]

Zero support of Andruw of late. Estimates now say he need 14 more votes just to stay on the ballot. Meanwhile, Bonds and Clemens are settling in at around 70 percent, meaning next year's ballow will be damned interesting.

[The Chosen One]

I doubt it. Thibodaux does a great job with this and on his tracker has the # of votes lost or gained from the previous year. While Bonds and Clemens are hovering around that mark of the votes currently available they have gained 0 and 1 vote respectively from that same group of voters last year. So the majority of voters who said no to them last year simply just haven't been accounted for yet.

Now on the flip side is Vlad who is currently soaring with 90% plus right now. He's already gained 20 votes from voters a year ago. He missed the hall by only 15 votes last year so simply put if the rest of the voters who voted for him last year vote for him again this year then he's going to get in. He won't need to gain any additional support. So I'd say he's all but guaranteed to join Chipper and Thome.

The next interesting case is Edgar. He missed getting elected by 73 votes last year. So far with 30% of the votes he's gained 13 votes. At that same percentage of votes gained he won't get in but it's a big improvement so far. As it stands I don't think he gets in this year but will likely get voted in next season which would be his last on the ballot.

And because of you Andruw won't make it.

[thewupk]

And because of you Andruw won't make it.

Don't put that on me. The reality is that Andruw is casualty of his career just falling off a cliff and the player crunch due to only being able to vote for 10 players and Clemens/Bonds soaking up a lot of votes each year but not being able to get voted in.

[The Chosen One]

Don't put that on me. The reality is that Andruw is casualty of his career just falling off a cliff and the player crunch due to only being able to vote for 10 players and Clemens/Bonds soaking up a lot of votes each year but not being able to get voted in.

If we got the word out there we could have maybe gotten a few votes to keep him on there. Now he may get pushed off in year 1.

Theres enough facts on his side to help him get a few more to stay on.

[clvclv]

If we got the word out there we could have maybe gotten a few votes to keep him on there. Now he may get pushed off in year 1.

Theres enough facts on his side to help him get a few more to stay on.

Regardless of the reasoning, it's beyond comprehension that the best defensive CF of his generation (and perhaps all-time) that put up the offensive numbers never before expected from someone at that position other than Mays may not make it beyond his first year of eligibility. What's even more disheartening is that by the time the Veterans' Committee gets a chance to vote on him, many of his exploits will no longer be fresh enough in their minds that they remember just how special a player he was.

[rico43]

After trailking both Clemens and Bonds through much of the early voting, Mussina making late push to make this one of the largest classes ever. That would be justice for one of the 'clean guys'.

[thewupk]

After trailking both Clemens and Bonds through much of the early voting, Mussina making late push to make this one of the largest classes ever. That would be justice for one of the 'clean guys'.

Bonds and Clemens are still long shots. They missed it last year by 90+ votes and have only gained 1 vote so far. Moose missed by 100+ but has gained 14 votes so far this year. He will get eventually but likely loose out this year.

Right now I think the 4 that are locks are Chipper, Thome, Vlad, and Hoffman. Edgar is making a strong push but will likely fall short.

[clvclv]

Bonds and Clemens are still long shots. They missed it last year by 90+ votes and have only gained 1 vote so far. Moose missed by 100+ but has gained 14 votes so far this year. He will get eventually but likely loose out this year.

Right now I think the 4 that are locks are Chipper, Thome, Vlad, and Hoffman. Edgar is making a strong push but will likely fall short.

Going to be really interesting to hear those who don't vote for Edgar make their cases since Thome spent well over half his career as a DH and Ortiz is viewed as a slam-dunk by most.

The 10 vote limit is so utterly ridiculous it's not even comical anymore - I heard an interview with Heyman the other day where he mentioned that he had voted for Martinez in each of the last 5 years but had to leave him off this year to vote for someone else since he could go back and vote for him NEXT year. Would be fitting if he comes within one vote this year and doesn't make it next year.

What's so idiotic about those guys using that reasoning is that they'll leave someone that only has a year or two left off and vote for someone that's borderline at best (say Rolen or Vizquel for instance) when it's their earlier years on the ballot and they have 10+ years left to be voted on rather than someone like Edgar or Moose who is running out of time. If you use the "I'll vote for him next year" defense, why not do it with those guys instead of Martinez, Mussina, Hoffman, etc.???

[thewupk]

Going to be really interesting to hear those who don't vote for Edgar make their cases since Thome spent well over half his career as a DH and Ortiz is viewed as a slam-dunk by most.

The 10 vote limit is so utterly ridiculous it's not even comical anymore - I heard an interview with Heyman the other day where he mentioned that he had voted for Martinez in each of the last 5 years but had to leave him off this year to vote for someone else since he could go back and vote for him NEXT year. Would be fitting if he comes within one vote this year and doesn't make it next year.

What's so idiotic about those guys using that reasoning is that they'll leave someone that only has a year or two left off and vote for someone that's borderline at best (say Rolen or Vizquel for instance) when it's their earlier years on the ballot and they have 10+ years left to be voted on rather than someone like Edgar or Moose who is running out of time. If you use the "I'll vote for him next year" defense, why not do it with those guys instead of Martinez, Mussina, Hoffman, etc.???

I think that's one of the main reasons Edgar is getting more support. They realize it's dumb to not vote for Edgar but still cast one for Ortiz. The 10 player limit is dumb and it ensures some players that deserve votes (Andruw) may not get them because there might be 10 players more deserving. The bottleneck due to steroids isn't helping that cause either.

[VirginiaBrave]

Another good question what is it gonna take for EJ, Sr., Skip or Pete to be recognized with the Frick award?

[clvclv]

Another good question what is it gonna take for EJ, Sr., Skip or Pete to be recognized with the Frick award?

The further we get away from "the dynasty" of the 90s, the less I think that may ever happen.

The Fox broadcasts need to integrate Skip's "Braves win, Braves win!!!" call into the telecast every night so casual viewers and more importantly voters tuning in by chance have it on their minds more often.

[rico43]

185 ballots counted fo far. Andruw gets another vote. Chipper remains top vote getter. Mussina still ohso close.