Discussion of Braves 2018 Offseason plans

[Enscheff]

This sentiment will change quickly this season. Not in that Simmons won't be good but Newcomb will be providing his prime performance during our resurgent years.

LOL I love it!

Think I’ll add this to my sig.

[Russ2dollas]

This sentiment will change quickly this season. Not in that Simmons won't be good but Newcomb will be providing his prime performance during our resurgent years.

What war will neck put up to make us feel that way? I’d say 15 war plus. I don’t see that happening

[thethe]

What war will neck put up to make us feel that way? I’d say 15 war plus. I don’t see that happening

Assuming you meant Newk but autocorrect struck again.

For the next 5 years I think 15 WAR is a decent baseline to put out there. If he obtains that we should all be happy. I happen to believe that Newk has elite level stuff and it won't be a consistent leveled production. I could see him languishing at around 2 WAR for the next year or two and then make a big jump in 2020 to 5+. He has that type of ability but just needs to have that lightbulb moment with his mechanics/confidence. I'm more than happy to be patient with a lefty that sits 94-96 with a wipeout slider and underrated change. The same reason why I wish we would give Fried a shot at the rotation in 2018. These kids just need to pitch.

[thethe]

Considering he’s one of the very best pitching prospects in all of baseball, it certainly could!

I think he has been rated as such by numerous outlets. You mocked when I said he was a top 75-100 prospect or that he even sniffed 50 FV. Care to revisit your mocking of me for those statements?

[thewupk]

What war will neck put up to make us feel that way? I’d say 15 war plus. I don’t see that happening

Yeah I would say Newk needs to become ~3 WAR starter during the backend of his pre-FA years for the trade to be worth it.

[Chico]

"Today's MLBTR live chat:

Justin
4:39 Domingo Santana for Mike Foltynewicz, who says no?
Jason Martinez
4:42 If the Braves had a bigger need in the OF, I think they could make something work. Brewers would probably have to add to the pot with maybe a mid-level prospect. But the Braves probably feel good enough with Markakis, Inciarte and Acuna that they won't sacrifice any of their pitching depth."

If this is true the Braves should make this trade right now! If not, once Folty is shown to be bullpen bound and likely nothing special there. Then you certainly won't find a team still dreaming for more from him. At least not enough to trade much for him.

I’m not even a big fan of Santana, but I’d do that trade. I was wanting to trade Folty last offseason when we had some helium.

I think Folty is an injury waiting to happen and his immaturity may keep him from taking that next step needed to be a complete pitcher.

[nsacpi]

I’m not even a big fan of Santana, but I’d do that trade. I was wanting to trade Folty last offseason when we had some helium.

I think Folty is an injury waiting to happen and his immaturity may keep him from taking that next step needed to be a complete pitcher.

Both Santana and Folty could see big moves in valuation over the next year (in both directions). From a club perspective there is less need for an outfielder this year with Inciarte, Muk and Acuna (after a few weeks in the minors) available.

[Horsehide Harry]

Both Santana and Folty could see big moves in valuation over the next year (in both directions). From a club perspective there is less need for an outfielder this year with Inciarte, Muk and Acuna (after a few weeks in the minors) available.

I don't want to see a guy like Santana. He's a win-now kind of guy whose defense will likely decline significantly over the next few years where he becomes a 1B or DH. Since 2018 is obviously a punt year, then why not get a good one off.

I would try to send Teheran to the Brewers but wouldn't be against sending Folty in the right deal. Maybe Teheran or Folty for Lutz, Phillips and Grisham. Phillips gives you what Santana would but with a little less bat and a lot more defense. Lutz and Grisham are long term plays who could be ready in 2-3 years.

But who pitches in Teheran or Folty's place? Who cares. There's 47 pitching prospects who need to show what they have or don't have soon. Also, if you move Teheran you likely have a chance to pick up a talented question mark in FA for very little cost.

[clvclv]

I can't recall ever hearing much about what kind of clubhouse guy Folty is, but have heard rumblings that Santana's not exactly thought of as the best teammate in the world.

That said, I'd make that deal straight-up in a heartbeat and take my chances. If Santana's even close to what he showed last year, moving him to LF and having elite defenders in CF and RF for the foreseeable future (with Ender and Acuna's bats for the majority of control over him) gives you your best shot of having a Top 3-ish OF for some time. Even without huge strides in development from Gohara, Newcomb, Soroka, and Wright, Folty's teetering on not deserving a rotation spot within a year. By the time camp opens next February you don't have to squint real hard to see him having to pitch his *ss off to beat out Newcomb and Fried for the #5 spot in the rotation.

If they tossed in a K. J. Harrison as a sweetener, it'd be a no-brainer IMO.

[Enscheff]

I think he has been rated as such by numerous outlets. You mocked when I said he was a top 75-100 prospect or that he even sniffed 50 FV. Care to revisit your mocking of me for those statements?

Yes, let's revisit it to make sure you know what you're talking about. I said this:

The actual order if Albies is included goes:

1. Acuna (FV 65+ nearly MLB ready)
2. Albies (FV 60 position prospect already at the MLB level)
3. Gohara (FV 60 pitching prospect already at the MLB level)
4. Wright
5. Soroka (FV 55 top performer)
6. Allard (I still believe!)
7. Anderson (FV 55 at lowest level)
8. Pache (FV 50 position prospect with highest floor)
9. Riley (borderline FV 50 position prospect over the MLB swingman)
10. Fried (LHed swingmen out of the BP are valuable)
11. Wentz (since Albies isn't actually eligible)
HM. Minter (FV 45 MLB ready BP arm)

/thread

So I personally have him as a high FV 45 and right on the edge of the Braves Top 10. Considering the Braves have 7-10 guys in the Top 100, that means I personally rank him solidly in the Top 150.

As for the publications that have him as a Top 100...one of them has him ranked over Gohara, and the other is influenced by an extremely biased ex-employee.

How credible do you find those particular rankings to be?

Of all the FG prospect work, the most biased portion of it will be Braves prospects for the next few years. It's a shame.

[Super]

Of all the FG prospect work, the most biased portion of it will be Braves prospects for the next few years. It's a shame.

what a convenient cover.

[thewupk]

Yes, let's revisit it to make sure you know what you're talking about. I said this:



So I personally have him as a high FV 45 and right on the edge of the Braves Top 10. Considering the Braves have 7-10 guys in the Top 100, that means I personally rank him solidly in the Top 150.

As for the publications that have him as a Top 100...one of them has him ranked over Gohara, and the other is influenced by an extremely biased ex-employee.

How credible do you find those particular rankings to be?

Of all the FG prospect work, the most biased portion of it will be Braves prospects for the next few years. It's a shame.

Same report that had Pache as the #37 overall prospect. Not biased at all.

[Enscheff]

what a convenient cover.

You don't think Kiley is going to be biased towards a few of his personally favored Braves prospects after being with the team for 3 years?

Did you not see where he ranked Touki and Pache?

[Enscheff]

Same report that had Pache as the #37 overall prospect. Not biased at all.

And Touki at #60.

To me, that's worse than Pache.

[msstate7]

Enscheff and thewupk, why does it bother you if the braves’ prospects are “overrated” by FG? You suggest that the FV value assigned by them is the formula used by FOs to determine trade value. If you are correct there, braves’ prospects being overrated is a very good thing

[thewupk]

And Touki at #60.

To me, that's worse than Pache.

It's also worth noting yet again that just because you aren't in the top 100 doesn't mean you are a crap prospect. There is a minimal amount of difference between Fangraphs #50 prospect through #137 or wherever they cutoff the 50 FV guys.

Riley has a lot of helium right now with how he ended 2017. Hopefully he can build on that.

[Super]

Enscheff and thewupk, why does it bother you if the braves’ prospects are “overrated” by FG? You suggest that the FV value assigned by them is the formula used by FOs to determine trade value. If you are correct there, braves’ prospects being overrated is a very good thing

either way they need to get a room to cuddle in.

[Super]

a list with allard on it is clearly behind.
one without him on it but with other guys instead is clearly biased.
BP is also biased for having wentz at 45. kiley did #40-49 on their list for sure.
BA is biased because fried is on there. kiley worked for them during this and did their #70-79.
it's definitely not that different places and different people value different prospects differently.

[Enscheff]

Enscheff and thewupk, why does it bother you if the braves’ prospects are “overrated” by FG? You suggest that the FV value assigned by them is the formula used by FOs to determine trade value. If you are correct there, braves’ prospects being overrated is a very good thing

It bothers me because I want unbiased, accurate information that is produced with a logically sound process.

FG is that source. They have improved their pitcher vs hitter FV ratings to adjust for expected value. That's why we see the systematic drop in FVs of about half a grade for almost all pitchers. Now the surplus values of all prospects more or less line up, regardless of being a pitcher or hitter. That is a GREAT improvement to the process.

Unfortunately, they have also re-hired a guy who will bring extremely strong biases towards certain prospects he followed on a personal level for years. That completely negates a great deal of what they have to say about the Braves (or at least the prospects Kiley personally loves). It is pretty obvious who those few Braves prospects are.

[Super]

keith law is also extremely biased from his time working with the braves. i mean, how else could he have toussaint, pache, and wentz on his list?

meanwhile, the people who have looked to **** on the old FO for anything and everything are definitely not biased in any way. of course not.