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Thread: Dickerson DFA’d

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    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    I agree that he will spend time in the minors come 2019. I think that will be plenty of time. He will spend 75% of the season in AA this year and finish off in Gwinnett. He may even get a September call-up. But he will start 2019 in AAA and as long as his performance merits along with the reporting from the scouts specifically about his defense and approach at the plate he will get the call sometime in the middle of 2019. With that in mind all acquisitions for third should have that timeline in the decision making process. I agree that Riley is not an uber prospect where you don't try to upgrade at all but that upgrade should be a big one over Camargo (roughly a 2 WAR player). For that reason alone I don't see any way a third baseman is brought in.

    LF is where the biggest upgrade will come from and I would expect the Bravse be linked to guys who will command 20+M AAV for that position.
    I think one infield upgrade will be needed in 2019. Not necessarily Camargo. I think there is as much of a chance that Swanson does not make the cut as Camargo. If Camargo is a 2 win player and Swanson is not in 2018, I think there could be some musical chairs--Albies to short, Camargo to second and a new third baseman. I do think we will be looking for a couple guys with power next off-season. One for left, and probably one to play third.
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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    I think one infield upgrade will be needed in 2019. Not necessarily Camargo. I think there is as much of a chance that Swanson does not make the cut as Camargo. If Camargo is a 2 win player and Swanson is not in 2018, I think there could be some musical chairs--Albies to short, Camargo to second and a new third baseman. I do think we will be looking for a couple guys with power next off-season. One for left, and probably one to play third.
    2018 will be a telling year for many facets of the future. THat much is for sure. Swanson will not be given another failed campaign if 2018 turns out to be a continuation of 2017. However, I think we are going to see other decisions being made on the core of the team. I want the team to invest dollars in Albies/Acuna/Gohara/Newk/Soroka/Fried/etc... if their performance dictates it. I understand the control is there already but we should be creative with how we structure those deals and use current dollars in the early years so that we can reduce later dollars. I'm not sure how much present value factors are used by agents but if you give Albies/Acuna 5 million dollars in 2019 then all of a sudden the tail end of an 8 year deal doesn't need to be 20 million. Maybe it could be 17 million.

    There are just so many ways we can spend this excess cash that pushing for a third baseman when we have a potential long term replacement being ready theoretically in mid-2019 is not a smart decision.
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    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    2018 will be a telling year for many facets of the future. THat much is for sure. Swanson will not be given another failed campaign if 2018 turns out to be a continuation of 2017. However, I think we are going to see other decisions being made on the core of the team. I want the team to invest dollars in Albies/Acuna/Gohara/Newk/Soroka/Fried/etc... if their performance dictates it. I understand the control is there already but we should be creative with how we structure those deals and use current dollars in the early years so that we can reduce later dollars. I'm not sure how much present value factors are used by agents but if you give Albies/Acuna 5 million dollars in 2019 then all of a sudden the tail end of an 8 year deal doesn't need to be 20 million. Maybe it could be 17 million.

    There are just so many ways we can spend this excess cash that pushing for a third baseman when we have a potential long term replacement being ready theoretically in mid-2019 is not a smart decision.
    But someone like Suarez would not block Riley or anyone else beyond 2020.
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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    But someone like Suarez would not block Riley or anyone else beyond 2020.
    Restricting an opening for riley opening day 2020 is a non starter for me unless he falls on his face this year. He will be in Atlanta at some point in 2019.
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    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    Restricting an opening for riley opening day 2020 is a non starter for me unless he falls on his face this year. He will be in Atlanta at some point in 2019.
    You realize you can always trade Suarez if Riley is the real deal right?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Carp View Post
    You realize you can always trade Suarez if Riley is the real deal right?
    Will you get a package back as good as the package you gave up? I don't know. It's another unpredictable variable that I don't this is necessary to include in the team build equation. Especially when you have someone like camargo that could be a 2 war player at league min for 2 seasons.

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    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    Will you get a package back as good as the package you gave up? I don't know. It's another unpredictable variable that I don't this is necessary to include in the team build equation. Especially when you have someone like camargo that could be a 2 war player at league min for 2 seasons.
    Of course they won’t get an equal package back for him after they use up some portion of his service time. That isn’t the point of acquiring him. The point of acquiring him would be to help win next year.

    If Riley isn’t ready to be the answer next year the Braves can’t afford to punt 3b for the 9th consecutive season if they want to compete.

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    I dont consider camargo punting. This isn't Adonis garcia. That's a punt

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    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    I dont consider camargo punting. This isn't Adonis garcia. That's a punt
    Remember when you didn’t think Adonis was punting 3b? Here, I’ll remind you:

    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    It's confusing how 3b all of a sudden became a need. Garcia was solid last year and would be the 7th hitter in the order so it's not as if we need a stud there. Would it be nice? Siure but the starting rotation is the number 1 area for improvement even with the recent additions.
    So...yeah. You think everyone is acceptable when they are “the guy”. It’s no surprise you think Camargo, and then Riley, make it so 3b isn’t a clear need.

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    That is not a ringing endorsement and it correctly identified that starting pitching was a much bigger need that should have been prioritized. So thank you for not proving anything.

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    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    That is not a ringing endorsement and it correctly identified that starting pitching was a much bigger need that should have been prioritized. So thank you for not proving anything.
    So in your head, that’s the same as saying he is punting the position?

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    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    Restricting an opening for riley opening day 2020 is a non starter for me unless he falls on his face this year. He will be in Atlanta at some point in 2019.
    Man I love your optimism about all things Braves, I truly mean that. But I have a feeling you are more bullish on Riley than his own mother is. You're projecting a guy that was terrible at High A ball last year to be a starter on a MLB team hoping to compete next year. If you end up being right then I am going to get you to buy some lottery tickets for me.
    Go get him!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jaw View Post
    Man I love your optimism about all things Braves, I truly mean that. But I have a feeling you are more bullish on Riley than his own mother is. You're projecting a guy that was terrible at High A ball last year to be a starter on a MLB team hoping to compete next year. If you end up being right then I am going to get you to buy some lottery tickets for me.
    If someone consistently predicts all players to hit their 5th percentile outcome, and they’re right 5% of the time, they are neither lucky nor smart. All they did was prove that math works.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jaw View Post
    Man I love your optimism about all things Braves, I truly mean that. But I have a feeling you are more bullish on Riley than his own mother is. You're projecting a guy that was terrible at High A ball last year to be a starter on a MLB team hoping to compete next year. If you end up being right then I am going to get you to buy some lottery tickets for me.
    109 wRC+ for a 20 year old in a pitchers park is horrible? Coupled with reports on improved defense as well as a slightly low BABIP?
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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    If someone consistently predicts all players to hit their 5th percentile outcome, and they’re right 5% of the time, they are neither lucky nor smart. All they did was prove that math works.
    And you on the other hand just project everyone for their expected outcomes. You take no risk at all so you want to pat yourself on the back just by regurgitating the consensus opinion. Congratulations.
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    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    And you on the other hand just project everyone for their expected outcomes. You take no risk at all so you want to pat yourself on the back just by regurgitating the consensus opinion. Congratulations.
    Projecting expected outcomes is what people do when building their team. You take huge risks all the time on your player projection and most end up being very bad. Coppy and Co. took a big risk on Kemp and we all saw how that played out when the rest of the baseball world accurately depicted his pathetic expected outcome.

    It's ok to be optimisitc but a dose of reality goes a long way.

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    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    And you on the other hand just project everyone for their expected outcomes. You take no risk at all so you want to pat yourself on the back just by regurgitating the consensus opinion. Congratulations.
    Regurgitate? I’ve shown plenty of original analysis on plenty of players. Just because one logically sound analysis comes up with generally the same conclusion as other logically sound analyses does not make it regurgitation.

    In fact, all of baseball is coming up with the same correct conclusions now, as evidenced by the stalemate this offseason has been.

    A GM as clueless as you would be completely fleeced and out of a job within the year.

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    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    Projecting expected outcomes is what people do when building their team. You take huge risks all the time on your player projection and most end up being very bad. Coppy and Co. took a big risk on Kemp and we all saw how that played out when the rest of the baseball world accurately depicted his pathetic expected outcome.

    It's ok to be optimisitc but a dose of reality goes a long way.
    Kemp was a limited gamble with funds that we had available. The mistake really was Olivera an that has been well covered.

    I could do the same thing that everyone else does and use the available metrics and perform analysis using proven methods of statistics. I learned all this stuff many years ago. Its not groundbreaking nor is it higher level mathematics/analysis. I choose to be a fan because that is what I am.

    I made the big mistake when I was younger of pimping up Francouer but afterwards my track record is not as bad as you like to portray. I was right about Gattis and yet nobody said a word afterwards. I was right about medlen and he went down with an injury. I'd love to know which player recently that I was super high on that I have missed out badly on.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    Regurgitate? I’ve shown plenty of original analysis on plenty of players. Just because one logically sound analysis comes up with generally the same conclusion as other logically sound analyses does not make it regurgitation.

    In fact, all of baseball is coming up with the same correct conclusions now, as evidenced by the stalemate this offseason has been.

    A GM as clueless as you would be completely fleeced and out of a job within the year.
    Forgive me for thinking that analysis isn't a derivative of available information (attaching a monetary amount to expected WAR for prospects). You are not collecting data points and deriving your correlations to wins/losses. You are doing what anyone with a high school statistics education can do but want to pretend like you are an expert. Statistics at the level baseball uses them is rudimentary.
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    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    Kemp was a limited gamble with funds that we had available.
    .
    LOL what? Limited gamble?

    Kemp was an unmitigated disaster that the Braves are still suffering from. Everyone knew it at the time.

    I’ll go back and grab some of your silly over the top quotes on several players if you really want to be shown how clueless you’ve been over the years.

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