Just running through your longish post, Harry, you're saying there won't be a single Brave improve in 2018? Not one?
Just running through your longish post, Harry, you're saying there won't be a single Brave improve in 2018? Not one?
I didn't get that take..Originally Posted by rico43
He is a bit more negative than I am, but I get what he is saying. I think Swanson/Ozzie will be +, I think JT/Folty/Newk will also provide +.. If Kemp was managed correctly, he would be a +.. Pen is a toss up for me. I don't see Neck improving (Acuna should be a +) .. Catcher will probably be a -.. 3rd wash or -.. I agree FF and Ender are probably a even.. I worry about Ender.. pitchers are starting to attack him up...
So like HH, even with my more rosey picture, I don't think there are enough pluses to get us too much over .500.. hopefully I am wrong and some pitching both in the pen and rotation become +++...
Coppy
Horsehide Harry (08-29-2017)
The pitching failed to develop so badly this year that I don't think there's any realistic way this team improves by 10 games next year.
I thought .500 or better was possible next year if some of the pitching stepped up. It just hasn't happened. I hope they don't go out and drop tons of resources on pitching in an attempt to save their jobs.
Horsehide Harry (08-29-2017)
At one point you said they were a legitimate playoff contender in 2018. That was when they were a couple games under .500, I think.
Assuming the pitching would progress and they would upgrade 3b, they could be.
The pitching has not progressed. At all. It is a big problem.
It is a big problem.
Pitching based rebuilds are very risky and if the second wave doesn't have an ace and a #2 or two #2's, they are pretty much going to have to blow up the rebuild and start over again and the guys in the FO don't seem to want to face the possibility of being wrong.
The Mets deal with the devil worked and then imploded, I think they're better than this kind of season but they're facing mediocrity again because of pitching injuries.
Aggression with prospects is fine, but being stupid is not. There should be a way to find a happy medium between a Pirates like idea of being overly cautious with prospects and going stupidly fast with prospects.
Horsehide Harry (08-29-2017)
Lets say next year.. Folty and Newk regress more. JT is not back on track.. Swanson and Ozzie are good but not great.. FF and Ender are about the same... How do you go about blowing up the rebuild.. you won't get much in return for Folty if he regresses.. Newk's value will be depressed more.. JT would hold a little with his contract.. but not much.. FF and Ender could net you some nice pieces, but you might as well dump Ozzie and Swanson and hoped we haven't called up Acuna yet. And if Folty and Newk bust, there is not enough pitching coming to save this rebuild.
I think the Braves have painted themselves in the corner and are going to have to go all in or die. I don't see anyway to 'redo' this rebuild. If it fails, we are in the basement for years to come. We will have to promote and trade as soon as a player 'hits' in the majors.
I think next year is a pivotal year for this regime. If Folty/JT/Newk bust and Ozzie or Swanson don't pan.. then we are in serious trouble.
Coppy
I agree 100% with what GG wrote. I'm pretty sure she meant that if the next wave of Allard, Soroka, Wright, and Gohara don't produce 2-3 legit SPs, the Braves won't have any option other than to blow it up again.
By the time they realize those guys flopped, every piece of the current core will have 1-3 years of control remaining. At that point they will have to trade them away because there won't be time to construct another wave of pitching before all the position players leave.
Having all the recent Young pitchers flop really put pressure on the next wave to make it.
FWIW, I have little concern about Swanson and Albies. Julio isn't this bad, but I'm afraid Newk and Folty are what they are.
I think both Swanson and Albies will be better but not great say about 2 WAR each, but not enough to move the needle to competitive greatness when taken with the expected declines elsewhere (Kemp, Markakis, Flowers/Suzuki) and the unlikelihood that either Freeman or Inciarte will play better than they already are (maybe you get Freeman for a full year but you don't get a mad man Adams).
The pitching, I can't see being any better with what's there now unless you get marginal improvement by some youngsters. However, whatever they do would have to overcome the value traded away with Garcia.
There's always the possibility someone looks in their couch cushions and finds some coins but what then?
Without real money commitment I don't see next year being significantly better than this year unless you have a miracle and Acuna comes up and plays like Trout and Allard and Soroka come up and pitch like Spahn and Sain.
It's the path back to purgatory like I've said all along...not good enough to compete, not bad enough to blow it up and start over.
Their only course of action is to tread water until the farm produces 3 legit SPs that can be relied on for ~3 wins each.
Until then, the worst thing they can do is spend resources trying to compete when they have no chance to be good. I was all for them fixing 3b this offseason in an attempt to be gold next year, but now it's clear they won't be contenders no matter what. They should tread water at 3b with guys currently in the organization next season.
I agree unless they actually do get some money to spend and then are able to spend it wisely. Not that I actually believe that will happen.
But this is beginning to remind me a bit of the mid to late 80's Braves where the rebuild took a looooong time and Murphy (Freddie) was the lone player who was ridden by the organization through year after year of horror only to never step foot in the promise land. That rebuild was from 85-91 and 1991 was a bit of a magical shock year with the Braves riding an unlikely MVP year from broken down 3B and the coalescence of a huge wave of talent that got good all at once.
This thread reminds me of how unrealistic (on the part of fandom) expectations have been about what a rebuild can bring. Maybe the FO contributed to this some, but the advocates of total rebuild around here have often acted as if completely blowing up the team and maxing out on high ceiling prospects would bring about a high probability of a world series winner.
That is a pie-in-the-sky type belief. Any strategy available to any baseball FO has a low probability of success if success is defined as a world series winner within a set timeframe.
In some ways trying to find the best strategy is fools gold. Rather the path to success is best found in some nitty gritty type guidelines:
1) Avoid excessive risk through contracts running more than 4 years (except in the case of team friendly deals with pre-free agent players like Freeman and Inciarte). The Braves have actually executed on this.
2) Win the trades by focusing relentlessly on expected surplus value. The Braves have a poor to mixed record here. And I'm mostly inclined to say they were lucky rather than skillful in finding a counter-party like Dave Stewart in the one trade they did very well on.
3) Diversify smartly in prospect acquisition. Mostly pitchers in the draft and mostly hitters in international free agency. The Braves have done this.
4) As a corollary to 2 above, you win most trades by accepting returns in the form of prospects for major league talent. We have mostly done this. But my main concern is we are about to start deviating from this to try to accelerate the rebuild. Doing so would be a yuge mistake imo.
5) Be smart with clock management. Don't make exceptions. Every case is special. Do not use that as an excuse to make exceptions. I think both Swanson and Albies were brought up prematurely from the perspective of value maximization.
6) Extent every prospect who achieves a certain level of success at the major league level as early as possible to hold down long-term costs and maximize value.
The above rules should be followed pretty much wherever a team is along the expected win curve. Executing relentlessly on the above guidelines trumps various forms of rebuilding strategy in terms of its impact on putting a winning team on the field. Even then we should be realistic about the chances for a world series ring. You do your best, hope for the best, but don't be unrealistic about the chances for a ring.
Last edited by nsacpi; 08-30-2017 at 10:12 AM.
"I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."
"I am your retribution."
Preacher (08-30-2017), zbhargrove (08-30-2017)
I think we do get caught up in the idea that there is a linear process that leads to success in a rebuild. In order for the linear process to work, a bunch of other teams would have to cooperate. While there are win win trades and deals based on where teams are in their competitiveness cycle, for the most part teams are trying to help themselves, and only reluctantly help competitors... when it benefits them to do so.
In most cases, like the Braves now, you see some good deals, some that could have been better, and some that are just lost gambles. The proof of success is not found by a critical analysis of each deal, but in the overall direction, and to some extent, the speed at which they are moving in that direction.
I think the Braves are heading the right direction. Contrary to some on the board, I see more good than bad. The Farm is great, they have some young guys who look to be very promising, and a relatively small number of bad contracts.
My fearless prediction... In a couple more years, we will be a very competitive team with a strong Farm and a bright future. We will still complain that they didn't follow the process in a linear fashion and lament that they could have been even better. It is who we are! We will also complain about the manager, the announcers, the ownership and the fans who don't show up.
I hope we will do that from a backdrop of success and enjoy the discussion.
The Marlins were expansion in '93, World Champions in '97, had a fire sale and were World Champions again in '03. Remind me again how long a rebuild is supposed to take?
4-5 years. 93-97 is 5 years. 97-03 is longer than 5 years.
Seems right.
Last edited by Enscheff; 08-30-2017 at 11:54 AM.
We didn't really have a fire sale. We kept two of our biggest assets.
Nobody said they did.
I dunno. How often has the Marlins 93 & 97 pattern been replicated. Sometime you catch lightning in a bottle. But a strategy based on catching lightning in a bottle isn't really a strategy.
"I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."
"I am your retribution."
Posting Permissions
Reply With Quote