As the red line keeps going up, the blue line keeps going down
http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx...=single>1=15
This is exactly what I feared would happen as pitchers started to feed him more and more sliders.
As the red line keeps going up, the blue line keeps going down
http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx...=single>1=15
This is exactly what I feared would happen as pitchers started to feed him more and more sliders.
Him being able to adjust to the slider is what's going to make or break him
That is only over the last 10-11 games, though. Interestingly, they've been positive correlated for much of the year.Originally Posted by Enscheff
Huh? Are you sure you're looking at the same data?
Every time his SL% got into the 25%-30% range (Games 0-30, 60-90, and now) his wOBA plummeted. We have seen his current hot streak snapped as his SL% has increased.
It seems like the key to getting Swanson out is to feed him 25%+ sliders.
As Chipper used to say hitting is all about making adjustments. I think he's a smart enough kid to make the adjustments.
I agree with your concern regarding the slider, but the sample size provided leaves me nonplussed.
That graph of sliders and wOBA doesn't show a terrific correlation. There are times where you see high slider% and low wOBA but there's also plenty of times where you see high slider% and high wOBA or low slider % and low wOBA. Recently he's seen an increase in slider% and a drop in wOBA but as has been noted, the sample size is small.
Honestly, I think the slider stuff is overblown. I think it's more about Swanson staying consistent. When he's not hitting well he is victimized by sliders but when he's not hitting well he's not hitting much of anything.
Jaw (09-19-2017)
Look at Game 40 to about Game 115 on that chart, and that is a pretty clear positive correlation. Let's take Game 60 to Game 100, for example. His wOBA is climbing initially as the SL% is increasing. Then, yes, his wOBA starts to drop once the SL% hits its zenith, but the SL% also starts to drop soon after and his wOBA continues to drop. Then, his wOBA starts to climb once the SL% hits its low point, but the SL% starts to increase soon after and his wOBA continues to increase. And his wOBA begins to slide around Game 115...and the SL% also slid initially at the same point.
So your point about the SL% needing to get to a certain point is a good one. Just felt it was strange that there seems to be a positive correlation for much of the chart.
This is basically what I'm trying to say. He clearly hasn't hit sliders well, I'm not trying to say that isn't true or it isn't a problem. I just don't think his results can be neatly summed up as, 'It's all about how many sliders he's seeing.' I'm not really seeing that from the chart.
I should not have written "As the red line keeps going up, the blue line keeps going down" because it doesn't accurately reflect the conclusion I ultimately drew.
I conclude that when pitchers throw Swanson 25%+ sliders over a 15 game rolling average, his wOBA drops. His SL% seem irrelevant until it breaks the 25% mark. Whether or not that trend holds up for the rest of the year is still up in the air, but this is the 3rd time this season his SL% has hit 25%+, and his wOBA is going down again.
However, if 30% SL% makes Swanson a .316 wOBA hitter, that isn't much of a problem. Just something to monitor because there's nothing else to talk about.
Really interesting data set; thanks.
There really isn't a good negative correlation with slider percentage and wOBA. A better case can be made if you only are looking at slider percentages above 25%, but there you run the risk of using a post facto test. There was no reason to choose a slider% of 25% prior to looking at the data, but if you want to show a negative correlation between wOBA and slider%, it serves the purpose. The problem with any post facto test is that you can easily mislead yourself, and it isn't really possible to do any statistical analysis on the data set. When you start pulling correlations out like that, it's possible to find all sorts of spurious correlations.
Just looking at the data, the negative correlation between a slider% of 25% and wOBA only really works for the beginning of the year and then over a very small sample very recently. There is also a small sample (and that sample is actually bigger than the recent sample) where slider% is above 25% and Swanson's wOBA is fairly high. So, really, there may be a negative correlation between wOBA and slider% above 25%, but it depends on that data from games early in the season. After that, it falls apart with as much positive correlation as negative correlation. I admit that it is an interesting possibility, and it's worth keeping an eye on, but there needs to be more data. It could easily be what we call "fairy gold". It looks great in the first light of morning, but then once the sun shines on it for a while, it all goes away.
No doubt about what he needs to work on in offseason. The big question is can he make the adjustments.
I was ok with him starting the season in Atlanta. But the team made a huge mistake by not sending him down sooner. I now think the best thing to do would be to resign Phillips for 2nd base. Move Ozzie back to short and tell Dansby he is in AAA until he can handle the slider. If Dansby can't get it together he is going to have a short MLB career
Unfortunately I agree (I would have responded earlier. But my laptop is broken.)
But then my question is do the Braves agree and see Albies as even a temp. SS. I don't think so. We'd probably end up with Camargo at short.
Aggression with prospects is fine, but being stupid is not. There should be a way to find a happy medium between a Pirates like idea of being overly cautious with prospects and going stupidly fast with prospects.
I think they made a mistake by sending him down at all. He's not going to get better hitting AAA sliders.
I'm still looking to extend him while he's down. I believe in the scouting consensus that he'll be good. I'm not calling him a starter but we'll be shocked what 10 million buys 10 years from now. Lock him up.
.240 where you at???
More if the same from Swanson. He will struggle to post a .700 OPS next year.
https://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.asp...=single>1=15
Thinking .250/.320/.360 is about right.
Last edited by Enscheff; 09-29-2017 at 07:12 PM.
That's certainly possible, and likely true without adjustment. I'm mlre bullish on his ability to improve. I think he can put up 270/330/400
.730 ops and cleaning up the sloppy defense will result in a 2.0 WAR or better. I think you're more right
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