Right, well he's not an elite power hitter, we know that. if he's really playing some SS due to much improved defense, I'd think he could be very good at 3B. I don't know anything about SB in college, though.Originally Posted by zbhargrove
Right, well he's not an elite power hitter, we know that. if he's really playing some SS due to much improved defense, I'd think he could be very good at 3B. I don't know anything about SB in college, though.
I want Groome. I'm still holding out for the Tehran to Cubs block buster where we fill some holes and Groome can wait while Newcombe, Wisler, Blair, Sims, Jenkins, Gant hold it down.
UNCBlue012 (05-09-2016)
He began the year with scouts not knowing if he could play 3B, so I would go ahead and assume "average defense at 3B" is probably his ceiling. He isn't going to be a base stealer, so we can stop adding that to his repertoire when we discuss his future.
He probably isn't a talent worthy of the #3 pick, BUT if Groome and Lewis are gone he might be the best combination of upside/readiness/need/cost remaining. He will probably be an average or better MLB player at a position of need, should be ready in 2-3 years, and should sign under slot to give the Braves the ability to add over slot players at few other picks.
I understand he isn't the elite prospect we all expected with the 3 pick, but this draft is light on those types of players. It is deep on the top-25ish type talents, so getting Senzel plus several of those other guys might just be the best strategy in this particular draft.
I would love to make a trade for Baez, though. Teheran for a package centered around him would be excellent.
What I've ready about Senzel's defense at 3B is that his arm will definitely stick and his hands have improved to where he is at least an average defender at 3B. Worst case scenario is a future move to left field.
I'm not sure the Cubs have much of a need for Teheran at this point... I'd look to the NL West for possible targets
Barnegat is playing Gloucester Catholic at the Camden Riversharks stadium next Monday with Groome on the mound - $5. Very likely going to that. Tyler Mondile, who is also supposed to be drafted, is pitching for Catholic.
He's been playing a lot at SS this season. Decent arm, fields ok, but not a pro SS.
Don't ruin my fantasy.
Tehran + Inciarte for Baez, Contreras and Happ. I know it won't happen. But I want it to.
I thought Baez was all swing and miss? Something changed?
Ivermectin Man
he is down to 25%.. still not walking either. But still really young and has a ton of potential. I would take a chance on him... not sure the Cubs are ready to let go yet.
I'm thinking the Rockies. Maybe as part of a Rockie salary dump like Teheran to Colorado for Jose Reyes, OF David Dahl, 3B McMahon and C Dom Nunez and the Rocks pay the Reyes buyout for 2018.
Braves would owe the balance of Reyes' $22M this year and all of the $22M next year. Net 2017 payroll add: $15.7M (Remove Teheran's $6.3M)
Then you go Freedie Freeman and Grilli to Cleveland for (either Napoli or Santana) plus OF Frazier, 1B Bobby Bradley. Net 2017 payroll add: -$20.5M
Then you go Olivera, Garcia and AJ to the Yankees for McCann, Headley, Ellsbury (Yanks contribute $40M), OF Judge, 3B Miguel Andujar, OF Leonardo Molina. Net 2017 payroll add: $36.5M
Then you go Markakis to Baltimore for C Chance Sisco and 1B Trey Mancini. Net 2017 payroll add: -$10.5M
Total net 2017 payroll add: $21.2M
You lose Aybar's $8.5M after 2017 (I'm doubtful you can trade him for anything)
Whatever the net is on Swisher and Bourn
SO in 2017 you have:
CF: Inciarte, M Smith, Ellsbury, Dahl
RF: Judge, Inciarte, Frazier
LF: Inciarte, Smith, Frazier, Dahl
1B: Mancini, Bradley, Judge
2B: Albies, Swanson, Peterson
SS: Reyes, Albies, Garcia
3B: Headley, Swanson, Ruiz, McMahon
C: McCann, Flowers, Nunez, Sisco
And you keep all your pitching except Teheran.
In 2018 and beyond you are looking at something like:
SS Albies
2B Swanson
CF Dahl
LF Frazier
RF Judge
3B McMahon
1B Bradley
C McCann/Flowers (with Nunez and Sisco in the wings)
SP: Newcomb, Blair, Wisler, Sims, Folty (with a large number in the wings)
RP: Viz (closer)
That takes care of your short term and allows you to payroll supplement from the 2017-18 FA market as necessary because of the minimized payroll.
Then you go best available at #3, which will probably be Groome over Senzel and follow up with best available the rest of the way. You go big in international FA with Maitan, etc. Then you pick early and often in the 2017 draft because the team sucks in 2016. Then you go low on International signing in 2017 (because you probably can't go high) and instead invest in the 2017-18 FA market.
That sets the team up short and long term with exciting young talent at the ML level and the minor league level.
Last edited by Horsehide Harry; 05-09-2016 at 02:58 PM.
The only one of those that is even remotely realistic is the Freeman deal.
Harry, you kill me with your creative trades.. love them.. But I see no reason the Stankees make that trade.. They get nothing in return for loosing a top prospect and a serviceable CF and Catcher. They are not cash strapped enough to make that happen.
I could see a variance of the Rockies trade.. maybe drop one of Dahl or McMahon for their competitive pick this year.. But you better hurry on that deal.
The Rocks deal contains the fact that the Braves are taking back Reyes and his money as well as sending them Teheran. I think a version of it is workable. i'm not asking for Rodgers who is seen as their SS of the near future. McMahon is blocked by Arrenado and won't have a spot for years. Nunez is even or behind several other catchers for them and is movable. The one difficult piece for them is Dahl, but I don't do the deal without Dahl. The Braves might have to send them M Smith or (maybe) even Inciarte but I would see an Inciarte & Teheran for Dahl, McMahon and Nunez as being pretty even.
The Freeman deal can probably be done as is, as long as Cleveland believes that they are a legit contender. Might have to swap Viz for Grilli which I would do.
The Yankees deal is based around the idea that they want to get rid of salary leading into FA. I know that historically the Yankees have just spent without regard to budget but lately they have been more frugal. Their best prospect is a catcher, so McCann can go. They would love to move Ellsbury and his contract (or parts of it) under any circumstances. The same goes for Headley who likely needs a change of scenery. The Braves are taking on a lot of money $36.5M in 2017 dollar PLUS a big net add for 2016 and some in 2018 and beyond. All the Yankees give up in terms of prospects is a power OF and two low level projects. BTW, the Braves get rid of Olivera. As long as the Yanks are willing to deal to move payroll, and I think they are, then with a little work, I think it could be done.
The Markakis deal... Let's face it, the Orioles system sucks so it's not like Sisco and Mancini are super great prospects. Given the love for Markakis in Baltimore, I think it is likely do-able.
They move a ton of money, which they will turn around and spend in 2017 FA and 2018. They want Ellsbury and Headley gone today. McCann, they would keep but he is blocking their best prospect and is in his decline phase.
I think Harry's Rockies trade is a "fair" trade.
But
1) We want to win trades not break even on them.
And
2) The trade gives up a lot in 2017 for value in the future. So it only makes sense to the extent to which you have a negative discount rate.
I suspect Harry likes it because you get three guys (Dahl, Nunez and McMahon) who have some power potential.
For those of us who do not give bonus points for value associated with power, it is less attractive.
Last edited by nsacpi; 05-09-2016 at 03:57 PM.
Horsehide Harry (05-09-2016)
I had the same reaction. I don't think the Yankees are the type of franchise that is willing to sacrifice assets like that in order to get rid of a bad contract.
a fair trade can still be a win. We need hitting and have pitching. We trade pitching for hitting is a win if it is not an over pay to get hitting.
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