Global Events & Politics Überthread

[The Chosen One]

A good portion of the people in Iran want the regime to be taken out. Playing nice with them doesn't make them happy.

If you admit a lot of Iranians want the regime out (and are Pro-West) then why are you so quick to jump ship on this?

You can't change a country over night or in a year. We tried that with Afghans and Iraq and look at how that's shaping up.

The Mullahs aren't going to be in power forever.

Kim is doing what hes doing because of economics. Not because hes scared of Trump. A thriving North Korean economy helps solidify his power and position. Creates less chance of a coupe.

Iran deal to lift sanctions was about economics. Iran was bleeding their best minds in all fields to western countries left and right.

[The Chosen One]

Interesting how under Trump, all of the authoritarian and autocratice leaders have strengthened their power. Yet he projects this false strength and dominance as if we've got our foot down on all of them.

Putin is obvious.
Assad is obvious.
Saudi Arabia.
North Korea is now sitting down at the table with the big boys and looks legit.
Xi Jinping is leader for life now in China.
Iran's position will strengthen now.

[thethe]

If you admit a lot of Iranians want the regime out (and are Pro-West) then why are you so quick to jump ship on this?

You can't change a country over night or in a year. We tried that with Afghans and Iraq and look at how that's shaping up.

The Mullahs aren't going to be in power forever.

Kim is doing what hes doing because of economics. Not because hes scared of Trump. A thriving North Korean economy helps solidify his power and position. Creates less chance of a coupe.

Iran deal to lift sanctions was about economics. Iran was bleeding their best minds in all fields to western countries left and right.

So you admit that Iranian leadership was in dire straights so we bailed them out?

[57Brave]

Pre-revolutionary Iran.



Who ****ed that up, again?

I would say Eisenhower Administration in 1954. Roughly 65 years ago, but that isn't what I asked.

The Iranian Revolution was 40 years ago. Which is equally irrelevant

How/what in 2018 informed your opinion ?

If you don't want to answer just say so

[Hawk]

Moon Jae-In has balls to stand up against the more conservative hardliners. Exactly what he did to reach out to Kim. Moon was not President then.

Netanyahu isn't going to allow any solution under his watch either.

Ok, you were making sense, then you kind of went off the rails.

Moon Jae-in was gifted an incredibly pro-reform environment.

South Korea just put their former President, Park Guen-hye, in jail for 24 years. She resigned under mass protests.

Her father was a former South Korean President (dictator) ... but widely loved by conservative Koreans as he delivered the country prosperity and order after the war. The North Koreans tried to assassinate her father, but ended up killing her mother instead. They ended up getting the father later.



I say all of this to say that the notion that Moon "stood up" to hardliners is not true, although it is true that he was very pro North Korea during the campaign (he said he would call Pyongyang before the White House after being elected).

You are right to give Moon his due. But you can't extract America (or Trump) from the current situation and how it evolved.

[The Chosen One]

So you admit that Iranian leadership was in dire straights so we bailed them out?

Dire straights? No. The Mullahs and Ayotollah aren't dying tomorrow.

The Iranian people elected a lot of moderates under Rouhani because Rouhani ran on a more open to Pro-West agenda.

Your theory that we should be helping them start an uprise is going to have the exact opposite intended affect.

[Hawk]

I would say Eisenhower Administration in 1954. Roughly 65 years ago, but that isn't what I asked.

The Iranian Revolution was 40 years ago. Which is equally irrelevant

How/what in 2018 informed your opinion ?

If you don't want to answer just say so

You asked what influenced my opinion of Iran.

I answered pre-revolution Iran.

Keep up.

[The Chosen One]

Ok, you were making sense, then you kind of went off the rails.

Moon Jae-in was gifted an incredibly pro-reform environment.

South Korea just put their former President, Park Guen-hye, in jail for 24 years. She resigned under mass protests.

Her father was a former South Korean President (dictator) ... but widely loved by conservative Koreans as he delivered the country prosperity and order after the war. The North Koreans tried to assassinate her father, but ended up killing her mother instead. They ended up getting the father later.



I say all of this to say that the notion that Moon "stood up" to hardliners is not true, although it is true that he was very pro North Korea during the campaign (he said he would call Pyongyang before the White House after being elected).

You are right to give Moon his due. But you can't extract America (or Trump) from the current situation and how it evolved.

I would like to know what Trump did for me to give him a lot of credit on this. Im not against what's going on. Im just cautious on what's going on and who's moving the pieces on the board.

Moon seems to have done the heavy lifting and doesn't mind giving Trump credit so as to not disrupt any progress. Knowing how much of a crybaby Trump is, it was a better play than Trump going rogue and doing something to try and upstage it.

krgecw and thethe seem to be indicating that Trump's rocketman tweets and tough talk are what have solved this issue. Moon and the Foreign Minister giving lip service to the US doesn't exactly show anything of substance.

Trump is already claiming victory on this.

[57Brave]

The Shah ?

Is that your answer ?

[The Chosen One]

If Moon can secure some safety for his country by satisfying Trump's ego with compliments, I think that's an easy tradeoff.

[57Brave]

You asked what influenced my opinion of Iran.

I answered pre-revolution Iran.

Keep up.

despite your non partisan claims I will assume it is the hardline (R).
Circa 1980.

Our policies on Iran in that era were partisan in itself.
One side favored negotiation and the other taking a strong confrontational stance

Sound familiar ?

But, let's get beyond names.
didn't we arm Saddam due to our misguided Iranian policies?
and arming Saddaam caused what ?

Pre Revolution Iran --- what's next, we re install Batista in Cuba or Augusto Pinochet ?


....................

How quaint

[Hawk]

I would like to know what Trump did for me to give him a lot of credit on this. Im not against what's going on. Im just cautious on what's going on and who's moving the pieces on the board.

Moon seems to have done the heavy lifting and doesn't mind giving Trump credit so as to not disrupt any progress. Knowing how much of a crybaby Trump is, it was a better play than Trump going rogue and doing something to try and upstage it.

krgecw and thethe seem to be indicating that Trump's rocketman tweets and tough talk are what have solved this issue. Moon and the Foreign Minister giving lip service to the US doesn't exactly show anything of substance.

Trump is already claiming victory on this.

South Korea is tied to the United States at the hip. We are their military backbone in a region where they have no real friends. Moon doesn't go to North Korea without American consultation. Kim isn't interested in what Moon has to say unless it carries American weight (and therefore money, influence, and military might). So, in that sense, I give Trump, and his administration, credit for facilitating this detente.

Trump has been proactive about North Korea in a way that Obama never was. The "Rocketman" and tweet blustering - it was something more than nothing. If anything, that period established Kim and Trump as psychopathic equals.

Also, Trump claiming victory is ... very Trump. Would you expect any other tact?

Edit: I posted this a few pages ago, but it's worth reading again (primarily because the "disdain for bureaucratic processes and deliberative decision-making" is a defense I've used for supporting Trump time and time again):

Delury thinks Trump's abnormalities — his disdain for bureaucratic processes and deliberative decision-making — have helped create abnormal momentum on the Korean Peninsula.

"I do give one-third of the credit to the Trump administration," Delury told me. "They ended Strategic Patience and ramped up sanctions. Then they ramped up the military threat, and because we all thought he was crazy enough to take us to war," that forced everyone to act differently.

"But he also ramped up diplomacy" by immediately agreeing to meet with Kim. "Maybe if [Trump] asked his advisers, they would’ve stopped him."

[Hawk]

[57Brave]

Kurt Eichenwald
‏Verified account @kurteichenwald
22h22 hours ago

What's amazing to me: The number of Trump fans who are saying Iran

violated the nuke deal. Is this what Fox is saying? Do they not know that

everyone on Trump's national security cabinet has testified under oath that

Iran has abided by the deal? Brainwashing it rampant.

or saying " this isn't about violating the deal ... "

[Hawk]

^^

I don't subscribe to the belief that Iran cheated (or was going to cheat).

Funny how you drown when there isn't a script to read off of.

[57Brave]

Naveed Jamali
‏Verified account @NaveedAJamali
23h23 hours ago

Congrats Trump, you’ve put the wishes of Saudi Arabia over

the safety of the region, the wishes of our allies in Europe and

the recommendation of your own Secretary of Defense.

#disgusted

[57Brave]

^^




Funny how you drown when there isn't a script to read off of.

but your point is Make Iran Great Again ?
Regime change ?

I keep asking and you keep avoiding answering

[Hawk]

but your point is Make Iran Great Again ?
Regime change ?

I keep asking and you keep avoiding answering

You keep asking what, exactly?

I see a lot of ADHD babble about Batista and Pinochet and Saddam Hussein and (R) hardliners.

But I don't see a question that I haven't already answered pretty explicitly.

Regime change? Sure. A traditional one.

Make Iran Great Again? Sure.

Pre-revolution Iran. Think about it. Earnestly.

[57Brave]

I am asking you how you justify pulling out of this deal
and what you read and written by whom that lead you to that decision.

Explicitly ?

[57Brave]

President Donald Trump said Iran “has committed multiple violations of the agreement.”
-Oct 2017