OFFICIAL FALLING AXE PREDICTION THREAD

[rico43]

The season will be ending mercifully quickly from this point forward, so we will begin the Fredi/Frank death watch.

We want to get your heartfelt prediction (as opposed to some of your usual sludge) as to who stays, who goes and who replaces them. This will go on through the end of the year, and anyone who predicts correctly will be awarded a pair of increasingly scarce 90s Braves media guides.

The tie breaker: who will be the new hitting coach?

Here are my baseline predictions: Wren stays (barely), Fredi goes and is replaced by Bo Porter.

(or maybe Denzel Washington. I'm on the fence)


New hitting coach will be Brett Butler.




Now, go out there and prove me wrong!

[CyYoung31]

I thought this was going to be a prediction thread on when the Braves will get officially eliminated.

[Hudson2]

What about Julio Franco as a batting coach?

[The Chosen One]

New Manager + VP/GM:
John Schuerholz Jr.

[Dalyn]

Player/Manager = Dan Uggla

Player/Hitting Coach = BJ Upton

Player/Pitching Coach = Freddy Garcia

[Dalyn]

What a glorious return it will be.

[bravesnumberone]

Somewhere Owl is laughing.

[50PoundHead]

Somewhere Owl is laughing.

And his sorry a** is contributing to our crying.

[cajunrevenge]

And his sorry a** is contributing to our crying.

At least he only hurts the team in the check book now as opposed to the check book and on the field. Hopefully we can say the same for Bad Job Upton soon.

[NinersSBChamps]

Braves record with Uggla and without tell the story.

[cajunrevenge]

He did see a lot of pitches since he could rarely make contact. No wonder Fredi benched him' he thinks working a starters pitch count is an outdated philosophy.

[CrimsonCowboy]

As most of you know, I have not been vocal about firing Fredi Gonzalez. I've been kinda giving him the message board equivalent of a "vote of confidence". The last six weeks, especially after this embarrassing weekend, I'm starting to change my mind. There is no excuse for what this team has shown us these last few weeks. Yet, nobody is taking responsibility. Nobody is being a leader. Losing games is one thing. What the Braves have been doing is another. It's worse than losing. I'm not sure I can define the right word to describe it.

So, making changes. The next thing to consider is, if you fire Gonzalez, you have to let go of Wren as well. These two, like Bobby Cox and John Schuerholz (though in a completely different way), are joined together in this thing. Wren brings in the lousy players and Gonzalez puts the lousy players on the lineup card. I don't think you can fire one guy and keep the other. It would potentially cause some friction within the team, and that is the LAST thing the Braves need. Either they both stay or both go.

Looking at this for the rest of the staff, lets hypothetically say Gonzalez and Wren are shown the door. What about the other coaches:

Greg Walker and Scott Fletcher: They have got to go. The numbers on offense are as ugly as an old Ford Pinto right now and they speak for themselves. Going beyond the numbers, the approaches are terrible. The swinging at the first pitch. Simmons and his "swing hard in case you hit it" style. All the failures trying to lay a simple bunt down.

Carlos Tosca: Eh, let him go as well. For the simple reason as to get some new blood on the staff.

Doug Dascenzo: Hasn't done anything to make me outraged at him. I'd keep him around if he wanted to stay.

Roger McDowell: A risk of a managerial and GM change is losing him to another team. McDowell has done a real good job as pitching coach and hopefully the Braves do everything in their power to make sure he stays. If Gonzalez and Wren are gone, teams are going to be in his ear in hopes of prying him away from the Braves. Hope he stays.

Terry Pendleton and Eddie Perez: I'd keep these guys around too. Pendleton seems to have a good knowledge for the game. Not sure he's manager material, I'd want him to stay. Eddie Perez seems like a guy who would make a good manager some day. Good personality and also good knowledge of the game (seems like most guys who played catcher have that trait). Plus, it doesn't hurt that as Braves players, there were rather popular.

I know that some are reading this post and are quite shocked that I am making these comments. Yes, it is true that I am a patient fan for the most part. Heck, as an Alabama fan, I stayed in support of Mike Shula, right up until he lost to Auburn for the fourth straight year. But also, I want what is best as a fan of the Atlanta Braves. After witnessing this debacle the last few week, especially this weekend in Texas, perhaps changes is what is best. We just have to have hope and faith that Terry McGuirk and John Schuerholz make the right calls. McGuirk said that there would be accountability. If he's true to his word, then when the Atlanta Braves open the season in Miami come April, the chances are rather good that there will be some different names.

[zitothebrave]

Well thought out post CC. My only point of contention is I don't think Wren is tied to Fredi. I think how baseball operations are built the on field and off field while working together, are separate things. I think Wren has been fine. no one could have predicted the hard fall for BJ and Uggla. Many thought the Uggla deal was bad, but he wouldn't start sucking til about this year. No one saw BJ sucking even those like me who didn't want him over Bourn and thought we overpaid. The brightside for me though, is that Wren won't really have that luxury of overspending on someone who may not be worth it all contract aside from maybe Justin anytime soon because of our youth. I think Wren deserves credit for locking down Freddie, Julio, Simmons and Kimbrel. Only Freddie's deal was above market.

My reason for firing Fredi instead of Wren is that Wren gave Fredi a good enough team. WE are good enough. Jason, Justin, and Freddie are all excellent players, Gattis is an excellent catcher, Simmons is a solid extra piece. We knew there was a very real chance that Bossman, Johnson, and Uggla would be turds. And they have been. With the emergence of Gosselin as an option it's absurd to me that Fredi is letting Johnson play against RHP. And Gosselin is another pumpkin BTW, even more so than CJ seemingly as his LD% is quite pedestrian. Non-regular PT has seemingly hurt TLS. He went from being above average when he was starting to below average as a platoon player. I'm guessing the lack of reps is either hurting him or creating a sample issue.

The issue with Fredi for me is that he seems to have no solid strategy. He showed all the faith in the world in BJ by letting him play through sucking, then quickly platoons TLS while he's still playing well. To me the smarter choice if you wanted to get Gosselin PT at that time would have been put him in LF and adjust the OF. Not take out a superior hitter and keep playing BJ. He's the anti-Bobby when it comes to pitching. While Bobby always seemed to have the perfect timing when it came to when to pull a pitcher, Fredi always seems to leave guys in too long.

In summation, I don't know if we can do better than Fredi, but I'm more than willing to try.

[nsacpi]

I'd like to see Roger and TP stay. With one of them appointed manager. Chipper for hitting coach.

As for Wren, I hope he learns a bit from this year. Failure is a better teacher than success and there are some important lessons to be drawn from this year. The most important lesson from the year imo is to construct a roster (including the "second bench" in AAA) that gives you options in the event the guys penciled in as everyday players do not give you satisfactory performances. So far we have given 571 plate appearances to CJ and 546 to BJ. That's a lot for the rest of the team to overcome. The alternatives that we had for those two were not that great and those that were available were not used as much as they should have been. We also did not find ways in the trade market during the course of the season to shore up third and center. So my hope for next year is a deeper and more flexible roster that can adapt to the inevitable under-performances (or injuries) that happen each year from the guys you are counting on to be your everyday players.

[50PoundHead]

Excellent posts by CC and zito (although I think zito overrates our team's ability and ignores some giant holes).

It's my guess Fredi and coaching staff will be gone the day after the season. Maybe McDowell and Pendleton get asked back. McDowell has resurrected at least as many guys as Leo did and gotten as much or more out of a bunch of seemingly marginal bullpen guys, but doesn't seem to get the credit he is due in the national media. I'm sure if there is a change in managers, McDowell will be the target of offers from other organizations. I think Pendleton is a link to the organizational culture and I was surprised when he was shuffled to what is seemingly a lesser role. Maybe he gets kicked upstairs if Gonzalez goes.

Wren gets another chance to choose his guy. I always thought Fredi was a pick made above Wren's paygrade given Fredi's previous service in the organization. So Wren gets to pick his guy and I have very little confidence in Wren to make a good choice. I worried that we'd see Baltimore redux with Wren, but Wren's defenders blamed his problems there on Angelos. Plausible theory, but also plausible that Wren screwed up as well and he's making the same screw-ups here.

Fredi seemed to manage differently this season. He put Uggla, BJ, and CJ out there every day instead of subbing liberally early in the season the way he did last year. I've wondered if those orders were coming from up top. Uggla played his way out of baseball (and anyone who defends his play this season needs to see a shrink regarding their obsessive/compulsive disorder) and BJ and CJ have both been miserable. Somehow Wren extended Johnson, which was totally ridiculous. The contract isn't onerous, but it still impedes the team's flexibility and if we are on a tight budget (and one can never be too sure where we are at in that department).

Fredi's use of the bullpen this year was spotty at best and the losses of Venters and O'Flaherty and collapse of Avilan left us without a viable LHP the entire season. Shae Simmons' injury also hurt because it has forced Hale and Varvaro into higher leverage situations and that's just not their proper role. Carpenter's regression has also hurt, but he has bounced back a bit. But even with these injuries, Fredi could never get folks into a proper pecking order and build back effectively from Kimbrel.

Future of the team? Good core in Freeman, Heyward, and Justin Upton. Gattis has his moments, but he seems to get nicked a lot and isn't that great behind the dish. Still, he has a very solid bat. I just see him as a 350-400 AB guy. I don't think Simmons is going to hit much or at least hit consistently. I'm not as sold on La Stella as many. People can point out his decline since the decision to platoon him, but he was declining prior to that, so it's a kind of chicken/egg thing. I agree that Gosselin, while not a pumpkin per se, is a utility guy and if they are counting on him to be a regular, they need to re-think that. I've already covered BJ and CJ. Peraza is the only guy in the high minors who looks to be an impact guy, so unless there's a housecleaning, we're looking at pretty much the same line-up next year. Pitching staff has two good young guys at the head of the line in Teheran and Wood, but question marks behind them. I think Minor sticks around. But after that, things will need to be patched together, both in the last two starting slots ad the bullpen other than Kimbrel and Walden. HUGE job.

I've rambled a bit (a bit?). If brief, I think Fredi's toast. Team is tired and is playing tired. Is that Fredi or the fact they are just worn out? Hard to say, but it is what it is and Fredi has contributed to that to some extent.

I'm more worried about Wren. Has never seemed to work from a blueprint and instead makes impulsive moves here and there. I'll say that the moving budget target hasn't helped, but his free agent decisions have been disastrous. Should be an interesting off-season.

[BravesfanMike]

Didn't McDowell sign a two year deal after the end of the 2013 season?

[nsacpi]

Didn't McDowell sign a two year deal after the end of the 2013 season?

Good point. He did.

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/braves-...8165--mlb.html

[50PoundHead]

Didn't McDowell sign a two year deal after the end of the 2013 season?

Good catch.

[Runnin]

I think Jeff Francoeur would make a decent 3B coach.

[rico43]

Braves record with Uggla and without tell the story.

It tells A story. Not sure it tells THE story. Amazing number.