The problem with your analogy is that it's not a straight average in baseball. One A+ and two Fs is often worth more than 3 Bs. Would the Mets trade us Thor for Teheran, Wisler, and Blair? Probably not.
It's more like this, would you rather have one 60 inch TV and two 18 inch TVs or three 27 inch TVs?
GovClintonTyree (06-11-2016)
Names that interest me at 80:
Jared Horn, RHP, Vintage HS, Napa, CA
Drew Mendoza, SS/3B, Lake Minneola HS, Minneola, FL
Austin Hays, OF, Jacksonville
Heath Quinn, OF, Samford
Thomas Jones, OF, Laurens, SC
Jeff Belge, LHP, Henninger HS, Syracuse, NY
Braden Ogle, LHP, Jensen Beach HS, FL
Cooper Johnson, C, Carmel HS, Mundelein, IL
These analogies all depend on opinion still. Would you rather have a 60-inch TV and two 18-inch TVs, or a 54-inch TV and two 42-inch TVs? You can take the same analogy and twist it depending on what you think of each player.
I'm fine with our strategy, I like the players we got. You obviously have an issue with it, and that's fine. But you have to acknowledge that it's possible the Braves just really like Anderson and were also able to use savings on him to get two other players they really like that they consider much better than what they could have had at slot value.
Again, we'll just have to wait and see. No one knows whether we did the right thing at this point. If Anderson, Wentz, and Muller all bust hard and Lewis turns into a 40-HR masher in the majors, it was dumb. If two of those pitchers turn into good major league starters and there is no superstar out of the top of the draft, it was genius.
GovClintonTyree (06-11-2016)
I'm not necessarily talking about them all working out. I'm saying that the draft philosophy was a welcome change. I've not seen this much interaction and caring about our drafts since before Wren. At least the Braves are aiming for higher ceiling players who probably flame out more times than not, but I can take that over the safe "should have drafted them at 100" type players we've been drafting.
Not if Anderson turns into a better player.
Puk is not someone I wanted at 3. You said he has a high ceiling and less risk, I think he has more risk than just about any player in the draft. There is a very small % chance he turns into something really good, IMO. He's already 21 and not dominating college hitters. That's not a good sign. He won 2 games for the #1 team in the country.
15 starts and 70 IP is horrific, and he didn't dominate even in those innings. No thanks.
Also, you think Keith Law had a HS pitcher without an ace ceiling ranked #7 on his board?
Likewise for this one...
My take on the draft:
- In a vacuum, it was a fine haul for us
- With context, I can't get my head around the absolute avoidance of taking hitters. They have higher probabilities to make the Majors and the system desperately needs them. I get BPA... but you can't convince me that the last two years we couldn't have found a hitter we liked as much or better than the 10 million pitchers we took in the high rounds
- Like striker, I don't like reaching at 3 to get a bit more quality later... it's not a strategy that was terrible - as Anderson is obviously a good talent. But it will hurt if Lewis or Ray becomes a stud offensive player and we finally had an opportunity to draft this high
- We should stop counting our chickens on the international market. It sounds like we've got good odds at Matian but there's no way I'm writing him into our system until he's signed.
- Additionally, these international markets are full of children... they won't be making an impact on our team til the next decade - if they make an impact at all
- Looks like we'll have to find our offense in other ways. Not saying we can't, but we've had a ton of picks in the early rounds the last two years and did not acquire any hitting with it. It is baffling. But it appears the market is valuing pitching highly so I'm hopeful we will be able to swing more trades
GovClintonTyree (06-11-2016)
Plus Bridges has been hinting that there were some bats they coveted but ended up not being available when the Braves picked. Anderson was ok in my book once Moniak and Senzel were off the board. But I think there are some strong indications the Braves would have taken those two if they were available.
50PoundHead (06-10-2016)
Want to talk small percentage chance?
Per FoxSports:
"High-school pitchers bring risk. Perhaps the most volatile position group in baseball's draft process, history has not been kind to prep arms going in the first five picks. From 1990 to 2010, only three high-school arms bubbled up to become viable MLB starters: Kerry Wood, Josh Beckett and Gavin Floyd."
I don't hate what we did, but it is confusing to me. Coppy has even acknowledged that the most sure thing to produce is college hitters while the most risky is high school pitchers. But that's all we continue to acquire.
GovClintonTyree (06-11-2016)