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Thread: What IS "Fair Value" That Would Entice Miami To Trade Realmuto Within The Division?

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    What IS "Fair Value" That Would Entice Miami To Trade Realmuto Within The Division?

    This is for our numbers-guys as well as anyone else.

    Everyone has their line (or untouchables) - I'm guessing AA does as well - but how far would you go/believe you'd HAVE to go?
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    His framing sucks. Does that really hamper his value in AA's eyes?

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    fWAR of 3.7 in 2016, 3.8 in 2017, and 4.8 in 2018.

    Has 2 more arb years left.

    Would project him at 4.5 per year for those two years.

    Salary in 2018 was $2.9M.

    Lets say it goes up to $5M in 2019 and $9M in 2020. So he will be paid the equivalent of 1.5 wins at the going market rate.

    Surplus value is 4.5+ 4.5-1.5=7.5 expected wins.

    That gets you a Top 25 prospect. But not a Top 5 prospect.

    The Braves top prospect at MLB pipeline is Soroka at #20. I don't think that would quite do it given the injury uncertainty. Maybe Soroka plus Fried. That would be a fair value package. Of course the Marlins will be looking for some team to overpay.
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    Quote Originally Posted by msstate7 View Post
    His framing sucks. Does that really hamper his value in AA's eyes?
    I think his numbers improved by the end of the year. He was posting some pretty horrid numbers around June if I remember correctly, and ended up around league average.

    I'm not too keen on trading a monster package for any position player that plays < 140 games a year, but his pitch framing stats don't bother me as much. I'd be fine with resigning Zuk or bringing the Mac Attack back.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    fWAR of 3.7 in 2016, 3.8 in 2017, and 4.8 in 2018.

    Has 2 more arb years left.

    Would project him at 4.5 per year for those two years.

    Salary in 2018 was $2.9M.

    Lets say it goes up to $5M in 2019 and $9M in 2020. So he will be paid the equivalent of 1.5 wins at the going market rate.

    Surplus value is 4.5+ 4.5-1.5=7.5 expected wins.

    That gets you a Top 25 prospect. But not a Top 5 prospect.

    The Braves top prospect at MLB pipeline is Soroka at #20. I don't think that would quite do it given the injury uncertainty. Maybe Soroka plus Fried. That would be a fair value package. Of course the Marlins will be looking for some team to overpay.

    OK - so IF we can assume Soroka's likely one of those that's "off-limits" (and obviously without your charts and using that same Pipeline Top 100 which Fried isn't on), after seeing the Yelich package, is it really THAT unrealistic to think that a quantity over quality offer of Gohara, Fried, A-Jax, and Allard would at the very least be worth making given the state of their system?

    That's three arms who would immediately compete for starts in their rotation, plus a Catcher with experience handling each. Their current 2019 rotation looks something like Urena, Chen, Alcantara, Trevor Richards (and his Teheran-like velocity), and Jeff Brigham. Gohara and Fried would almost certainly replace Richards and Brigham, and would instantly upgrade their rotation. The only one of their next-best arms that's even close to ready is Nick Neidert, (who profiles as a #4/#5 at best), and he could arguably use another full year in the minors. Their closest "impact" arms (Guzman, Cabrera, and Garrett) are still in A-ball or injured.

    They definitely aren't going to hand out market-value deals to SPs in their current state, and Gohara and Fried would certainly allow them to swallow some of the money that's due Chen that much earlier. Given the depth of RH starters in our system that are getting close (Touki, Soroka, Wright, Anderson, and Weigel) and the fact that we control Folty, Gausman, and Julio until some (if not all) of them are ready, I might even go so far as to tell them I'd substitute Wilson for Allard if that got it done - even though I'd try to avoid doing so if at all possible.

    While that's a fairly substantial amount of controllable talent in a vacuum, from our perspective it really wouldn't hurt THAT much - and it would also be selling high on the guys most people have the most questions about around here to land arguably the biggest upgrade at a position of need that won't even cause a ripple in our financial pond. It's a big package, sure, but not the "monster package" Carp's talking about trying to avoid.
    Last edited by clvclv; 10-04-2018 at 02:14 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by clvclv View Post
    OK - so IF we can assume Soroka's likely one of those that's "off-limits" (and obviously without your charts and using that same Pipeline Top 100 which Fried isn't on), after seeing the Yelich package, is it really THAT unrealistic to think that a quantity over offer of Gohara, Fried, A-Jax, and Allard would at the very least be worth making given the state of their system?
    Its worth trying. We snookered the Orioles into doing a quantity over quality deal. The Jeter regime is unproven. So who knows.
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    Quote Originally Posted by msstate7 View Post
    His framing sucks. Does that really hamper his value in AA's eyes?
    I don't recall Zook ever being considered a great framer before he got here (not that he necessarily fits into that category now - haven't seen the numbers). You'd have to think that Fasano and Flow have helped him in that department - no reason to think they couldn't do the same for Realmuto assuming he's coachable.
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    Curious ... given the acquisition price, how much better is Realmuto than Grandal?

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    Quote Originally Posted by JohnAdcox View Post
    Curious ... given the acquisition price, how much better is Realmuto than Grandal?
    Would be interesting to hear that from our numbers-friends as well.

    I'd personally rather make that type of deal for Realmuto because I think Grandal is going to get a pretty big offer (even if it's not crazy money), and I hate the idea of tying up big money in a "non-regular" - even though we have it. Plus, even though I understand everybody's reservations about trading that much depth, AA's going to have to do something to clear up some of the logjam at some point even if it's converting some of these guys to pen pieces. Touki, Soroka, and Wright need spots soon, and Anderson and Muller are coming fast.
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    Yasmani is about a win less valuable by fWAR. But I don't think they include pitch framing. Properly valuing pitch framing might put Yasmani ahead.
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    Quote Originally Posted by clvclv View Post
    Would be interesting to hear that from our numbers-friends as well.

    I'd personally rather make that type of deal for Realmuto because I think Grandal is going to get a pretty big offer (even if it's not crazy money), and I hate the idea of tying up big money in a "non-regular" - even though we have it. Plus, even though I understand everybody's reservations about trading that much depth, AA's going to have to do something to clear up some of the logjam at some point even if it's converting some of these guys to pen pieces. Touki, Soroka, and Wright need spots soon, and Anderson and Muller are coming fast.

    Quite of few of them are going to end up as relievers. It will just take some time to sort out who fits best where.
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    Probably wouldnt do Soroka, i'd try to do this or something along these lines. Pitch framing/defense is something AA values though, and i'm not sure where Realmuto is on those terms.

    Riley or Pache, Gohara, Fried, and another prospect is what i'd try.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Heyward View Post
    Probably wouldnt do Soroka, i'd try to do this or something along these lines. Pitch framing/defense is something AA values though, and i'm not sure where Realmuto is on those terms.

    Riley or Pache, Gohara, Fried, and another prospect is what i'd try.
    No thank you

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    Quote Originally Posted by smootness View Post
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    Yea, that’s a definite barfer.

    I’m definitely firmly in the camp of preferring to overpay Grandal in dollars—especially if higher AAV can shorten the overall duration—than overpaying in players for Realmuto.
    Last edited by jpx7; 10-04-2018 at 03:45 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by jpx7 View Post
    Yea, that’s a definite barfer.

    I’m definitely firmly in the camp of preferring to overpay Grandal in dollars—especially in higher AAV can shorten the overall duration—than overpaying in players for Realmuto.
    I would prefer the Grandal overpay also. I Expect Realmuto to get a big salary bump in arb so the money gap will narrow. When the prospect capital is added I almost expect a Grandal overpay to be the better deal.

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    Quote Originally Posted by JxnMissFan View Post
    I would prefer the Grandal overpay also. I Expect Realmuto to get a big salary bump in arb so the money gap will narrow. When the prospect capital is added I almost expect a Grandal overpay to be the better deal.
    It’d be interesting for the surplus-value whizzes to chart what a “fair” overpay for Grandal might look like. He’s been worth around 3.0 war each of the past three years, but he’s a catcher who’ll be entering his age-30 season, so some decline expectation has to be baked in. Would 4 years at $88 million total be “fair”? Would it be workable/justifiable for the Braves?
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    Quote Originally Posted by jpx7 View Post
    It’d be interesting for the surplus-value whizzes to chart what a “fair” overpay for Grandal might look like. He’s been worth around 3.0 war each of the past three years, but he’s a catcher who’ll be entering his age-30 season, so some decline expectation has to be baked in. Would 4 years at $88 million total be “fair”? Would it be workable/justifiable for the Braves?
    a fair 4 year deal would value him as a 2 WAR per year player...3, 2, 2, 1 is the rough pattern...so 16-18M per year...maybe a little more for the framing...88M is a good ballpark number
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    I dont get the obsession for JT, and to be honest i dont see the need to upgrade at C. With Markakis leaving id rather target an OF with money or trade assets. Maybe a starter to slot next to Folty. Maybe a high leverage releavier to pitch the 8th, and maybe a 3B. But Carmago has sort of won me over. With Tyler Flowers back next year, getting another servicible type that can start 2 times a week to give Flowers some rest is enough

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    Quote Originally Posted by Perfect Cell View Post
    I dont get the obsession for JT, and to be honest i dont see the need to upgrade at C. With Markakis leaving id rather target an OF with money or trade assets. Maybe a starter to slot next to Folty. Maybe a high leverage releavier to pitch the 8th, and maybe a 3B. But Carmago has sort of won me over. With Tyler Flowers back next year, getting another servicible type that can start 2 times a week to give Flowers some rest is enough
    With Ender, Swanson being inconsistent offensively, i think a better bat at C is a must. But i'd probably rather save our prospects for the right deal and just sign Grandal.

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    Grandal is looking at McCann/Martin money (5/80+, possibly closer to 90), and Pollock is looking at LoCain money (5/80, maybe 4 years due to injury concerns).

    I think the Camargo/Riley tandem as well as the myriad cheap young pitching options means the Braves can quite possibly afford both players. I also think it is likely the Braves sign one impact player and trade for another, and that player could very well be Realmuto.

    We have discussed JT's surplus value many times, so going over it again in another thread isn't necessary.
    Last edited by Enscheff; 10-04-2018 at 04:59 PM.

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