2018 Offseason And Targets

[bravesfanMatt]

Keep going before the parents get home.

[CyYoung31]

Ignorant statements like "Bum should be at min 3 WAR min player next year" and then you throw out 5 WAR as a bet on a message board? Where did 5 WAR even come from?

How about you go find the potential value for the time you waste here? That should be a worthwhile exercise for someone of your talents.

I’ll help you out:

A 3 WAR SP is not worth investing in when the Braves have internal options that could realistically produce close to that. That’s where the 5 WAR baseline came from.

[Super]

I’ll help you out:

A 3 WAR SP is not worth investing in when the Braves have internal options that could realistically produce just that. That’s where the 5 WAR baseline came from.

you can lead a jackass to water...

[Southcack77]

That’s within the realm of possible, and isn’t a real upgrade over what the young guys are expected to do.

If that’s the production you’re expecting from Bumgarner, I see no reason to acquire him.

I think 2.75 wins is significantly more than I would expect out of Teheran or any prospect.

I also think there is a maybe 25% chance Bumgarner returns to 4+ wins.

Might not be right on the chance he reverts to form with health , but that's my thought. I don't see it as too much different than betting on Josh Donaldson. Just a different kind of cost.

[Southcack77]

I’ll help you out:

A 3 WAR SP is not worth investing in when the Braves have internal options that could realistically produce close to that. That’s where the 5 WAR baseline came from.

It's not at all realistic to expect internal options to produce 3 wins, IMO.

Who of all of the Braves prospects has even come close to that? And what yet to be seen prospect is an obviously better prospect than the one's we have seen? And who would have any expectation at all of being a 5 win player? Or ready to pitch pivotal playoff games with 150 IP+ on their arms? The only conceivable answer here is I guess Soroka, who may or may not be ready to pitch next year, but still is not a good bet to be fresh at the end.

[CrazyTrain]

It's not at all realistic to expect internal options to produce 3 wins, IMO.

Who of all of the Braves prospects has even come close to that? And what yet to be seen prospect is an obviously better prospect than the one's we have seen? And who would have any expectation at all of being a 5 win player? Or ready to pitch pivotal playoff games with 150 IP+ on their arms? The only conceivable answer here is I guess Soroka, who may or may not be ready to pitch next year, but still is not a good bet to be fresh at the end.

Finally, someone with reasoning skills and realistic expectations for our prospects.

[Enscheff]

Ignorant statements like "Bum should be at min 3 WAR min player next year" and then you throw out 5 WAR as a bet on a message board? Where did 5 WAR even come from?

How about you go find the potential value for the time you waste here? That should be a worthwhile exercise for someone of your talents.

You mentioned him shattering that value. So let me know what you consider shattering 3 fWAR and we can go from there.

Or...keep sidestepping the chance to back up your moronic assertions. I'm guessing that's what you'll do.

[CyYoung31]

It's not at all realistic to expect internal options to produce 3 wins, IMO.

Who of all of the Braves prospects has even come close to that? And what yet to be seen prospect is an obviously better prospect than the one's we have seen? And who would have any expectation at all of being a 5 win player? Or ready to pitch pivotal playoff games with 150 IP+ on their arms? The only conceivable answer here is I guess Soroka, who may or may not be ready to pitch next year, but still is not a good bet to be fresh at the end.

Certainly one of the billion pitching prospects we’ve attained can manage to produce 2-2.5 WAR, or at least a couple pitchers with an aggregate. No one is talking about them producing 5 WAR.

[CrazyTrain]

I’ll help you out:

A 3 WAR SP is not worth investing in when the Braves have internal options that could realistically produce close to that. That’s where the 5 WAR baseline came from.

Please tell me who you think is going to be close to a 3 WAR pitcher from our current group of internal options aside of Folty?

[CrazyTrain]

Certainly one of the billion pitching prospects we’ve attained can manage to produce 2-2.5 WAR, or at least a couple pitchers with an aggregate. No one is talking about them producing 5 WAR.

lol... who?

[Enscheff]

I think 2.75 wins is significantly more than I would expect out of Teheran or any prospect.

I also think there is a maybe 25% chance Bumgarner returns to 4+ wins.

Might not be right on the chance he reverts to form with health , but that's my thought. I don't see it as too much different than betting on Josh Donaldson. Just a different kind of cost.

I disagree with the JD acquisition (even though I admit it is exciting) for the same reason I would disagree with a Bumgarner acquisition. Just like 3B was not an area in need of a huge expediture, a SP is not an area in need of a huge expenditure. The Braves went cheap at C in order to pay for JD because AA clearly has a boner for the guy. That $25M could have been used to address more glaring holes, but AA obviously valued the 1 year term for Mac and JD.

I also disagree that several of the Braves pitching prospects project to something approximating 2.75 wins. If they didn't why would we care about them?

Even if they projected to 2.0 wins, that's still preferable production for free over paying whatever it's going to cost to get an extra 0.75 wins out of Bumgarner.

[nsacpi]

Certainly one of the billion pitching prospects we’ve attained can manage to produce 2-2.5 WAR, or at least a couple pitchers with an aggregate. No one is talking about them producing 5 WAR.

that's the point...no individual prospect is projected to do this, but if you have a half dozen candidates chances are pretty good one will take that step forward...otoh there is just one bumgarner

[Enscheff]

Please tell me who you think is going to be close to a 3 WAR pitcher from our current group of internal options aside of Folty?

Take a step towards curing your ignorance:

https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/...eam=atl&type=0

The next step is to learn what FVs mean.

Or...continue to wallow proudly in your ignorance. I'm sure that's the path you'll take no matter what anyone tries to explain to you.

[bravesfanMatt]

that's the point...no individual prospect is projected to do this, but if you have a half dozen candidates chances are pretty good one will take that step forward...otoh there is just one bumgarner

Yes. I like my chances with Fried, gohard, Wilson, Touki and Soroka I could see 5 to 6 war from that collection next year.

[CyYoung31]

lol... who?

If we want a 3 WAR SP, we can just resign Sanchez. That would be a lot smarter than giving up pieces that could potentially produce close to that. We already have Folty, Teheran, and Gausman, two who produced over 3 WAR last year and the other who was almost 2.5. We only need to fill out the last two spots in the rotation. Giving up value for Bumgarner would be a waste if you’re only viewing him as a 3 WAR pitcher.

[Enscheff]

And let's not forget about this pearl...

Do you think there's any chance we can deal a package of something like Fried, Newk and maybe a couple other minor league guys to the Giants for Madison Bumgarner and give him a pay day to get him to stay for 6ish years?

This is the dude that we need to make us instant WS contenders. JdG would fit the bill too, but I would never expect the Mets to deal him to us.

Remember when you wanted to give up Newk, Fried and 2 more guys for Bumgarner and THEN give him 6 more years?

I'll be revisiting this idea for a while haha.

In fact, I think I'll immortalize the stupidity by putting it in my sig.

[Southcack77]

Certainly one of the billion pitching prospects we’ve attained can manage to produce 2-2.5 WAR, or at least a couple pitchers with an aggregate. No one is talking about them producing 5 WAR.

Folty:

2014 Astros 18 IP 0 WAR
2015 Braves 86 IP -.1 WAR
2016 Braves 123 IP 1.3 WAR
2017 Braves 154 IP 1.8 WAR
2018 Braves 183 IP 3.9 WAR

Newcomb:

2017 Braves 100 IP 1.3 WAR
2018 Braves 164 IP 1.9 WAR


Those are the two best performers of all the guys the Braves have tried. I don't think its particularly realistic to expect that Soroka, Touissant, Wilson, Weigel, or Wright will do better.

In any event adding a guy who probably will be better than those guys hardly hurts the team. It just makes things deeper. Just becomes a matter of whether the salary fits. I'd argue Bumgarner is more affordable than Donaldson for the upgrade provided. And I don't think he blocks the Braves from addressing their last true need: cOF.

But I ain't married to it. Just if the deal is pretty reasonable. I suspect the Giants won't move him till the deadline. And that will be a less risky time to assess where he is. And he'll cost less dollars, but perhaps more prospects.

[Southcack77]

If we want a 3 WAR SP, we can just resign Sanchez. That would be a lot smarter than giving up pieces that could potentially produce close to that. We already have Folty, Teheran, and Gausman, two who produced over 3 WAR last year and the other who was almost 2.5. We only need to fill out the last two spots in the rotation. Giving up value for Bumgarner would be a waste if you’re only viewing him as a 3 WAR pitcher.

Anibal Sanchez is going to be 35. His previous three seasons were not good. He put 2.5 WAR last season and that was awesome but it included the lowest BABIP of his career (.255). I believe he was among the league leaders in that stat, some distance behind the runaway leader, his teammate, theridiculously lucky Teheran, who needed all that luck to get out of negative WAR.

[CrazyTrain]

If we want a 3 WAR SP, we can just resign Sanchez. That would be a lot smarter than giving up pieces that could potentially produce close to that. We already have Folty, Teheran, and Gausman, two who produced over 3 WAR last year and the other who was almost 2.5. We only need to fill out the last two spots in the rotation. Giving up value for Bumgarner would be a waste if you’re only viewing him as a 3 WAR pitcher.

But Sanchez had his best year since 2013 and was ONLY a 2.4 WAR pitcher?

I find it VERY hard to believe that Teheran sticks around or is even moderately effective. If I were him, I'd rather retire than pitch again for Atlanta after the way he was treated in the NLDS last year.

Gausman is a great 4-5 guy, but he's going to be our current #2.

Our best MLB ready pitching prospect is already having shoulder trouble, which is extremely worrisome. No, not the dirt bike, fluke injury variety... the "I don't know what's wrong, but it hurts" variety.

Then we have Newk, who walks everyone in sight.

Then we have Fried, who walks even more batters than Newk.

We'll be lucky to have Newk/Friend combine for the WAR that Bum should have as his floor for next year.

Our rotation is a huge liability that needs to be addressed. Thankfully AA knows this, regardless of what a bunch of message board jockeys think.

[nsacpi]

I don't think its particularly realistic to expect that Soroka, Touissant, Wilson, Weigel, or Wright will do better.

I think the odds are better than even that one of Soroka, Toussaint, Wilson, Weigel, Wright, Gohara and Fried puts up 2 WAR or more as a starter in 2019.

I do have interest in trading Newcomb plus Wentz for Carrasco or Bauer.

Go with a rotation of Folty, Carrasco/Bauer, Gausman, Teheran, one of the the kids listed above.

Alternatively we can make a deal with the Dbacks for Peralta or Peralta and Greinke.