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Thread: Grading Syndergaard's pitches

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    Grading Syndergaard's pitches

    Recent rumors suggest Thor is available. He is certainly on the decline, but declining from a .260 xwOBA bonafide Ace still leaves room for a very good pitcher. He is controllable for another 2.5 years through arbitration, meaning he can be cut loose at any time if his arm falls off to limit his overall downside.

    Let's take a look at how his pitches roughly grade out based on 2019 data...

    SI: 98.0 mph (Grade 78.7), 8.4" HMov (Grade 48.8), 4.9" VMov (Grade 53.1)

    A blazing SI with average movement. This is clearly an elite pitch.

    FA: 98.2 mph (Grade 73.3), 3.3" HMov (Grade 39.5), 7.9" VMov (Grade 39.9)

    Another blazing pitch, but this one has below average movement, making it play down a bit in a world where everyone throws 95+.

    CH: 6.6 delta (Grade 44.5), 9.2" HMov (Grade 60.8), 3.7" VMov (Grade 53.4)

    The CH is probably average overall with more movement than velocity delta.

    SL: 89.2 mph (Grade 69.8), 2.0" HMov (Grade 47.5), -0.8" VMov (Grade 56.3)

    A blazing SL with average movement resulting in an average or better pitch.

    CU: 80.4 mph (Grade 55.9), 7.0" HMov (Grade 65.14), -3.6" VMov (Grade 46.4)

    A solidly average or better breaking ball with less depth and more sweeping action.

    Command: 2.56 BB/9 in 2019, 2.12 BB/9 for his career (Grade ~60+)

    So Thor is a guy with elite velocity (we knew that), and a handful of average-ish off speed pitches (probably not so widely known). This is probably why he isn't able to translate those radar gun readings into results as dominating as we expect.

    The reliance on pure velocity may also be a factor in aging less gracefully than a more well-rounded pitcher...as well as increased injury risk.

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    I just don’t like Thor for the price it will take. You pay that for an ACE. I’m not sure he is quite that. Sure, he can and will be dominating at times...but he just makes me nervous.

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    Quote Originally Posted by TheBravos View Post
    I just don’t like Thor for the price it will take. You pay that for an ACE. I’m not sure he is quite that. Sure, he can and will be dominating at times...but he just makes me nervous.
    He’s kinda like a #3/4 with 1 elite pitch.

    Of course, that’s pretty much a TOR by definition. The main issue is have is he is very reliant on velocity, which is the first tool to decline.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    He’s kinda like a #3/4 with 1 elite pitch.

    Of course, that’s pretty much a TOR by definition. The main issue is have is he is very reliant on velocity, which is the first tool to decline.
    I feel like he’s a #2 but because of his velo hype...he’s considered an ACE. Add that with his injury history and it’s a no for me unless the price is different than what I think it would be.

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    This feels.....premature.
    Ivermectin Man

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    The Mets seem to suck the good out of everybody, look at Diaz. With the Mets training staff being a bunch of idiots I have a feeling both would be better here.

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    Quote Originally Posted by TheBravos View Post
    I feel like he’s a #2 but because of his velo hype...he’s considered an ACE. Add that with his injury history and it’s a no for me unless the price is different than what I think it would be.

    I feel a MLB ready player will be required for NY.

    What about Folty, Ender, Anderson for Syndergaard, Diaz?

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    Quote Originally Posted by bravesguy View Post
    I feel a MLB ready player will be required for NY.

    What about Folty, Ender, Anderson for Syndergaard, Diaz?
    I’d be willing to trade anyone besides Anderson, Pache or Waters. I would also Trade Folty, Ender, Riley or Camargo. Just leave me the top three...although I doubt that happens. Folty has the same two years of control after this year. Folty , Ender and a Wilson/Wright type could do it.

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    Someone on the Mets board literally just copy and pasted Ensheffs break down

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    Quote Originally Posted by Oklahomabrave View Post
    Someone on the Mets board literally just copy and pasted Ensheffs break down
    Call them out. C&D.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CyYoung31 View Post
    Call them out. C&D.
    I actually tried to post there but you have to wait for mods approval. Resident board member there that they all seem to accept as an inside source claims the yanks agreed to a trade but ownership is hesitant to sign off.

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    My biggest concern with Thor is his stuff has declined some and he hasnt started a full season but like once.

    And the cost it would take would be too much for my liking unless AA somehow got him without giving up Anderson. If you can get him for any of our top 3 not in it sure, do it, otherwise, i dont know.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Oklahomabrave View Post
    Someone on the Mets board literally just copy and pasted Ensheffs break down
    Which board?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    Which board?
    http://www.metsrefugees.com/forum/sh...138332&page=22

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    Quote Originally Posted by Oklahomabrave View Post
    Looks like a board full of guys that make even the dumbest posters here look like geniuses.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    Looks like a board full of guys that make even the dumbest posters here look like geniuses.
    The Yankees boards I’ve seen are a good bit worse.

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    With us talking with NY about Diaz, is there a way to decipher if his fade this year is real or not? or just bad luck? Stuff still there?
    Ivermectin Man

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tapate50 View Post
    With us talking with NY about Diaz, is there a way to decipher if his fade this year is real or not? or just bad luck? Stuff still there?
    Mike Petriello did a good breakdown of it yesterday: https://www.mlb.com/mets/news/edwin-...of-trade-value

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tapate50 View Post
    With us talking with NY about Diaz, is there a way to decipher if his fade this year is real or not? or just bad luck? Stuff still there?
    I'm not in a position to grade his stuff but some of this is bad luck. 274 xwoba compared to 342 woba.

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    A lot of it is bad Mets defense. Issue is the Braves defense isn’t much better, especially on grounders.

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